NFL Betting Preview: New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

Post on November 21, 2013 by  

There’s something strange and exciting about tonight’s NFL game between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints.

While the two teams may have complete opposite records, and the Falcons are the most disappointing team this year, they are still massive rivals and definitely don’t like each other in any form or fashion. This game is definitely going to get some attention from not only the NFL fans, but the sports bettors as well of course.

The Saints come in with an 8-2 record, which is good for second best in the NFC behind the Seattle Seahawks.  Not only are the Saints trying to catch up to the Seahawks for the best record in the NFC, but they are trying to hold off the red hot Carolina Panthers, who have won SIX games in a row, and are 7-3 now. They have a huge match-up with the Seahawks next week, and then the Panthers the week after that, which will decide how the sit at the end of the year.

This spells look ahead game all over it, even though the Falcons and Saints still dislike each other quite a bit.  If you look back at Week 1 of the NFL season when the two teams met in New Orleans, the Saints were only favored by -3.5. What a huge change we’ve seen from that day though, as the 2-8 Falcons are at home in this one, and are getting right around +10 tonight at most online sportsbooks.

Betting Analysis

There are a few ways to look at this, but if you look at the stats, many things really do point to the Falcons, and even against the Saints.

Not only are the Saints coming off of a tough game against the 49ers that was definitely physical, but they aren’t nearly as strong on the road as they are at home. Surprisingly, the Saints are 2-2 SU away from home, and they are 1-3 ATS also. The most interesting state FOR the Falcons though is that they have seemed to bounce back well in the past under Mike Smith after double digit losses (lost by 13 last week), and are 11-3 ATS in those spots.

Over the last four games in the series between the Falcons and Saints, the home team has gone 4-0 ATS. That’s an interesting stat, even if the Falcons aren’t the same team they were last year. Roddy White looks to be back and playing at a much higher level and I expect him to have a fairly big impact on this one.

Consensus

Most sports betting sites have this one between -9.5 and -10 for the Saints. I’m taking this at +10 for the Falcons in a spot where many people are going to look and immediately think blowout, but that’s not likely to be the case.

Interesting game tonight, and I know I’ll be tuned in with some betting action.


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