BMW Championships Picks & Tips

by | Sep 13, 2017 | Golf

Matchup at a Glance

Where: Conway Farms Golf Club; Lake Forest, Illinois.
Date & Time: Thursday September 14 – Sunday, September 17, 2017
Quick Picks: Richie Fowler 12/1, Paul Casey 16/1, Jason Day 18/1

 

The 3rd leg of the FedEx Cup Championship kicks off on Thursday morning with the BMW Championship. Only 70 golfers will tee off in this round of the FedEx Cup Championship, with the top 30 place finishers moving on to next week’s Tour Championship.

The BMW Championship is the third longest running tournament in professional golf, only trailing The Open Championship and the US Open. Now, you may say to yourself that this tournament has only been around since 2007 but many forget that this was formerly the Western Open, which dates back to 1899!

Conway Farms Golf Club

The BMW Championship is being played this year at the Conway Farms Golf Club in Lake Forest, Illinois. This is the third time Conway Farms has hosted the BMW Championship. Each year, the BMW Championship takes place in the midwest at various golf courses between St. Louis, Missouri and Chicago, Illinois.

Conway Farms Golf Club sits on 209 acres of farmland and is set up similar to the Scottish style golf links. Conway Farms is a par 71 golf course that plays at around 7208 yards. The course was designed by Tom Fazio in 1991, from an old farmland in Chicago’s North Shore.

This course is one of the easier courses on tour and as long as golfers stay within the fairways, they should all play well. Last year, Conway Farms ranked the 4th easiest for golfers on tour. The fairways are very generous and for the most part, easy to hit, so when you look at your golfers this week, pay more attention to putting than off the tee.

The greens at Conway Farms are not very big and are very fast! The greens have plenty of elevation changes from the undulations and defined quadrants, meaning once again the approach shots will be very important and can really make or break a golfer’s week.

There is only 70 players starting this tournament so naturally there will not be a cut this week.

2017 BMW Championship System Attributes

Looking at the tournaments here at Conway Farms in 2015 and 2013, it’s a contrast of form for what was successful. For our course history, we will utilize those two years only and combine recent form to narrow down the player pool.

From there, we are looking at what attributes were common between those two tournaments. One thing that stands out is Strokes Gained: Tee To Green. In 2015, Jason Day ranked 1st in Strokes Gained:Tee To Green. In 2013, Zach Johnson ranked 7th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green. So we will definitely look at Strokes Gained: Tee To Green.

Another attribute we will use is Strokes Gained: Approach. In 2013, the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place golfer in Strokes Gained: Approach all finished in the top 4. In 2015, Daniel Berger was #1 in Strokes Gained: Approach and he finished 2nd, while Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy were tied for 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach and both finished T4th in the tournament.

We will use the following attributes this week for the BMW Championship:
Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Putting
Greens In Reg

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Golfers

(Note: This week, it is of utmost importance that you spread your money out and look for the best lines at various sportsbooks. I have done your homework for you and provided you with your best option for playing each and the online sportsbook that I found that line at)

*My first golfer is Rickie Fowler at 12/1 for 1.5 Units at BookMaker. Fowler has played well at Conway Farms both times and finished 4th in 2015 and 39th in 2013. He improved his second go around at the course and I look for him to play well here as well. Fowler is 2nd in Strokes Gained: Putting, 13th Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and 20th in Strokes Gained: Approach. His odds should increase this week because I think the bulk of the money will go on DJ, Jordan and Justin Thomas, so pay attention to how his odds are playing out here as it may be better to wait a little while before playing him.

*My second golfer is Paul Casey at 16/1 for 1 Unit at BookMaker. You’ve seen him on my list over the last 2 months several times and I am not ready to jump off his wagon yet. In his last 6 tournaments, he has finished no worse than 13th. He is literally one of the most reliable golfers on tour this year. He comes in at 16/1 and those odds are sort of crazy considering he has finished in the top five in 4 of those above 6 tournaments. I really like Casey and think he will do well this weekend.

*My third golfer is Jason Day at 18/1 for 1 Unit at BookMaker. Day is on the bubble in the FedEx Cup standings, currently sitting at 28th. That means he has to play well or he could be going home next week. Day had a bad stretch of tournaments where he missed the cut back to back in the US Open and the Travelers. We all know that Day can still play golf and he has already won at this course! Day has played here at Conway Farms two times. In 2013, he finished 4th and in 2015, he won the entire tournament. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him bounce back this week with another win at Conway Farms.

Head To Head Plays

Rickie Fowler over Jon Rahm at -145 at MyBookie for 1.5 Unit
Jason Day over Rory McIlroy at -115 at WagerWeb for 1.5 Unit

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