First Four NCAA Tournament Pick & Preview: North Carolina vs. San Diego State – Tuesday, March 18, 2025

The North Carolina Tar Heels (22-13) and San Diego State Aztecs (21-9) are each fighting for a spot in the NCAA Tournament as part of the First 4 games in the South Region on Tuesday, March 18 at 9:10 PM ET at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio. The Tar Heels are favored at MyBookie with a point spread at -3.5 (-115).

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

The Tar Heels are 3-2 over their last five games heading into this matchup. Their most recent battle was a 74-71 loss to the top-ranked Duke Blue Devils.

North Carolina was down 45-24 at the half, but put up an impressive run in the second to get it within a possession with under a minute remaining. Unfortunately, a potential game-tying free throw was waived off due to a lane violation by the Tar Heels. Ven-Allen Lubin led with 20 points and 10 rebounds.

The Tar Heels are averaging 80.8 points a game, ranking 32nd in the nation. Their defensive efforts are slightly less appealing with 75.0 points a game from opponents, which ranks 272nd. Their point differential is solid, but they need to play better defensively.

Per 100 possessions on offense, the Tar Heels efficiency ranks 55th with their defense at the same rate ranks 198th. Their overall strength of schedule and point difference puts them at 35th overall.

San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview

The Aztecs also went 3-2 in their last five games and are coming off a loss. Their recent defeat was a 62-52 performance against the Boise State Broncos in the Mountain West Quarterfinals.

San Diego State had a five-point lead at the half, but fell apart on both ends of the floor in the second. Nick Boyd had a great game of 20 points on 50.0 percent shooting and accumulated three assists.

The Aztecs are 260th in averaging 70.9 points a game. On defense they have allowed opposing teams to get 63.6 points per game, ranking 14th. This spread is appealing, but they must stay strong defensively.

Their efficiency on offense and defense per 100 possessions ranks 208th and 13th, respectively. Looking at the strength of schedule and point differential, they are considered to be the 52nd-best team overall.

Odds, Series Trends, and Free Pick

MyBookie offers the best North Carolina Tar Heels vs. San Diego State Aztecs betting odds, which showcase the Tar Heels as 3.5-point favorites. According to market insights, the Tar Heels have a 67.0 percent chance of winning. This could easily go either way if both teams are playing well, but the Tar Heels are slightly more appealing to cover the spread since they have been playing in a tougher conference all season.

Final Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels -3.5 (-115)