First Four NCAA Tournament Prediction: Texas vs. Xavier – Wednesday, March 19, 2025

The Xavier Musketeers (21-11) and Texas Longhorns (19-15) will face off to claim the 11th-seed on Wednesday, March 19 at 9:10 PM ET at UD Arena in Dayton, Ohio, for the final matchup of the First 4 in the Men’s Basketball Championship Midwest Region. MyBookie has the Musketeers as slight favorites with a point spread at -3.5 (-105).

Xavier Musketeers Betting Preview

The Musketeers had their seven-game winning streak snapped with an 89-87 loss to the 25th-ranked Marquette Golden Eagles in the Big East Quarterfinal. A win here would have likely put them ahead of this upcoming play-in situation, but they are here now with a great opportunity.

Xavier had a 10-point lead going into halftime, but their defense could not contain Marquette in the second. Ryan Conwell put up an outstanding performance of 38 points 72.2 percent shooting from the field.

Overall, the Musketeers are averaging 78.0 points per game and rank 78th in the nation for this output. On defense, they are holding teams to 70.9 points per game which ranks 146th. This spread is appealing, but they must continue to lock down on defense.

The Musketeers rank 39th overall for their point differential and strength of schedule combined. Their offensive efficiency per 100 possessions ranks 84th while their defense at the same rate ranks 91st.

Texas Longhorns Betting Preview

The Longhorns are 3-2 over their last five games and need to find consistency soon or risk missing out on the tournament. They are coming off an 83-72 performance against the eighth-ranked Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC Tournament Quarterfinal.

This was a three-point game at the half, with the Vols having the lead. Texas was not as efficient on both ends of the floor in the second, which steadily put them out of reach as time was running out. Kadin Shedrick led with 14 points and six rebounds.

Texas is putting together 78.4 points a game and ranks 69th for this effort. Their defense has held opponents to 72.2 points a game, ranking 197th. This spread is solid, but they must stay consistent on both ends of the floor in order to have a chance to win.

The Longhorns rank 38th overall for their point differential and strength of schedule. Their efficiency on offense per 100 possessions ranks 62nd, while their defense at the same rate is 160th.

Odds, Series Trends, and Free Pick

MyBookie shows the best Xavier Musketeers vs. Texas Longhorns betting odds, revealing the Musketeers as 3.5-point favorites. However, market predictions are suggesting the Longhorns have a 53.6 percent chance of winning.

This will be one of the more appealing games to watch unfold in the First 4, as both teams clearly have good rosters and were competitive in their respective conferences. The Longhorns are a good choice here to cover the spread, but only if their offense can stay strong.

Final Pick: Texas Longhorns +3.5 (-115)