NCAA Tournament Expert Betting Pick: South Region – Ole Miss vs. North Carolina – Friday, March 21, 2025

The 11th-seed North Carolina Tar Heels (23-13) look appealing in the first round of the South Region against the sixth-seed Ole Miss Rebels (22-11) on Friday, March 21 at 4:05 PM ET at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Current betting odds reveal the Tar Heels as slight favorites with a point spread at -1.5 (-120) at MyBookie.

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

The Tar Heels wasted no time in making their claim to join the NCAA Tournament, as they took care of the San Diego State Aztecs 95-68 in the First Four matchup leading up to the opening round of the tournament. They are 3-2 over their last five games, but now have all the momentum.

RJ Davis is having a great year, as he leads the offense with 17.3 points per game while Elliot Cadeau leads with 6.2 assists per matchup. They both need to lead the offense strongly here, as this will be the biggest test all season.

North Carolina’s offense ranks 27th in producing 81.2 points per game. Their defense is allowing 74.8 points per game, ranking 264th. This margin of safety is solid, but they cannot afford too many mistakes on offense.

The Tar Heels are 31st overall when looking at their strength of schedule and total winning point differentials. Their efficiency on the offensive end the last 100 possessions ranks 47th, while their defensive efficiency in that time has been the 188th-best.

Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview

The Rebels are 2-3 in their last five games and are coming off a loss to the Auburn Tigers in a 62-57 outing. That was the SEC Tournament Quarterfinal, where they had a great opportunity to knock off one of the best teams in the country.

Sean Padulla is averaging 14.9 points a game and getting 3.6 assists while also shooting 43.4 percent from the field. Malik Dia is also pivotal to their success, as he averages 10.6 points and 5.7 rebounds each matchup.

Ole Miss is 92nd for getting 77.2 points per game and is holding opponents to 71.7 points per game, which ranks 175th. This is a solid margin, which is on par with what the Tar Heels are producing. Their defense will be tested here since the Tar Heels have a great offense.

The Rebels are 28th overall for their strength of schedule and how much they are winning by each time. Offensive efficiency over the last 100 possessions ranks 108th while their defense at the same rate ranks 124th.

Odds, Series Trends, and Free Pick

MyBookie has provided the best North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Ole Miss Rebels betting odds that show the Tar Heels as 1.5-point favorites. The Tar Heels have a 56.3 percent chance of winning, according to market predictions. The Tar Heels have great momentum and appealing stats that show they should cover the spread.

Final Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels -1.5 (-120)