NCAA Tournament Handicapping Preview & Pick: Midwest Region – Illinois vs. Xavier – Friday, March 21, 2025

The 11th-seed Xavier Musketeers (22-11) will compete against the sixth-seed Illinois Fighting Illini (21-12) in the Midwest Region on Friday, March 21 at 9:45 PM ET at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. MyBookie has this close as the Fighting Illini are favored with a point spread at -3.5 (-105).

Xavier Musketeers Betting Preview

The Musketeers are 4-1 in their last five games. They got back on the winning side after an 86-80 victory over the Texas Longhorns as part of the First Four matchup to kick off this tournament.

Zach Freemantle leads with 17.2 points and 7.0 rebounds while connecting on 52.4 percent of his shots. If he can get to the foul line often, he can punish the Fighting Illini with his 76.5 percent shooting. Either way, he will need to charge ahead for them.

Xavier is getting 78.0 points per game and is ranked 78th in the nation. They are allowing 70.9 points per game from opponents, which ranks 145th. This is still a solid spread despite their lapses in defense at times this season.

The Musketeers are estimated to be the 39th-best team overall when looking at their strength of schedule and winning point margins during the year. Their efficiency on offense over their last 100 possessions ranks 85th while their defense during this time ranks 91st. 

Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview

The Fighting Illini just had their four-game win streak snapped with an 88-65 blowout loss to the Maryland Terrapins in the Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinal. During their win streak, they knocked off two ranked teams which shows they are ready for the tournament.

Kasparas Jakucionis is leading their offense with 15.0 points and 4.6 assists per game. He is shooting 44.8 percent from the field and 84.1 percent from the foul line. They will be at their best if he can find ways to get to the foul line and extend this game.

Illinois is 11th in points per game at 83.8 but 260th in allowing 74.6 points a game. This margin is only going to be pretty on paper unless they can do something better on the defensive end.

The Fighting Illini are 14th overall when combining their strength of schedule and winning margins. Their efficiency on offense in the last 100 possessions ranks 37th and their defense at that time span ranks 116th.

Odds, Series Trends, and Free Pick

MyBookie has you all set with the best Xavier Musketeers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini betting odds, with the Fighting Illini as 3.5-point favorites. Market predictions suggest the Fighting Illini have a 60.3 percent chance of winning. Xavier will keep this close, but the Fighting Illini have a great opportunity to cover the spread.

Final Pick: Illinois Fighting Illini -3.5 (-105)