NCAA Tournament Pick: East Region – Baylor vs. Mississippi State – Friday, March 21, 2025

The ninth-seed Baylor Bears (19-14) will compete with the eighth-seed Mississippi State Bulldogs (21-12) in the opening round of the East Region on Friday, March 21 at 12:15 PM ET at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina. MyBookie shows the Bulldogs as slight favorites with a point spread at -1.5 (-105).

Baylor Bears Betting Preview

The Bears are 2-3 in their last five games and must get back on track for the tournament. Their recent battle was a 76-74 loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Big 12 Championship Quarterfinal.

Texas Tech had a big first half of 52-39 which gave them enough breathing room for the win. The Bears did come back in the second with excellent defense and held the Red Raiders to 24 points. Norchad Omier had a strong performance with 29 points and 15 rebounds.

Baylor puts up 76.5 points a game and ranks 107th in the nation for this effort. On defense they hold opposing teams to 69.2 points each game, ranking 90th. This is a solid spread and it looked appealing in one of the tougher conferences this season.

The Bears rank 23rd overall for their winning margins and strength of schedule. Per 100 possessions, their efficiency on offense ranks 54th and their efficiency on defense comes in at 127th. This is a good sign on offense, but they have the potential to do better defensively.

Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

The Bulldogs have also gone 2-3 over their last five games. They recently lost in the second round of the SEC Tournament to the Missouri Tigers with a final score of 85-73.

Missouri had some control in the first half, ending it with a five-point lead. For the second, it looked about the same as the Bulldogs could not come up with better defense. Josh Hubbard led with 24 points on 36.3 percent shooting.

Mississippi State averages 79.8 points each game and ranks 45th. Their defense allows 74.2 points and ranks 248th, which does not give them much room for error. They will need to buckle down defensively if they want a shot at winning.

The Bulldogs rank 33rd overall for their point differential and strength of schedule. For each 100 possessions, their efficiency on offense stands at 58th and their defense ranks 194th. This is slightly worse than what the Bears offer.

Odds, Series Trends, and Free Pick

MyBookie gives you the best Baylor Bears vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs which offer the Bulldogs as 1.5-point favorites. According to market predictions, the Bears have an edge with a 61.4 percent chance of winning. The Bulldogs have been volatile lately, while the Bears have slightly better rankings in key stats that show they should do well here.

Final Pick: Baylor Bears +1.5 (-115)