NCAA Tournament Pick: South Region – Auburn vs. Alabama State – Thursday, March 20, 2025

After winning their First 4 battle, the 16th-seed Alabama State Hornets (20-15) will face the top-seed Auburn Tigers (28-5) in the opening round of the Men’s Basketball Championship on Thursday, March 20 at 2:50 PM ET at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky. MyBookie offers the Tigers as overwhelming favorites with a point spread at -32.5 (-105).

Alabama State Hornets Betting Preview

The Hornets have now won their last six games and will need all the momentum they can get in order to take down the Tigers. They are coming off a 70-68 victory against the St. Francis Red Flash in the First 4 series of battles prior to the opening round of the tournament.

Amarr Knox was the star here, as he hit the game-winning shot with just a second left in the game to put the Hornets up for good. He also led the team in scoring with 16 points on 53.3 percent shooting overall. The team also did a great job at limiting turnovers with just six.

Alabama State typically scores 73.3 points a game, which ranks 196th in the nation. On defense, the team has held opponents to 72.1 points a game, ranking 191st. This spread is not appealing when facing one of the top teams in the country.

The Hornets are ranked 283rd for their strength of schedule and winning point margins. Their efficiency on offense per 100 possessions ranks 223rd, while defending at the same rate shows an efficiency at 145th. This shows they are not that strong on both ends of the floor.

Auburn Tigers Betting Preview

The Tigers have lost three out of their last five games, offering little momentum heading into the first round of action. Their recent battle was a 70-65 loss to the Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC Tournament Semifinal.

Johni Broome led with 23 points on 69.2 percent shooting from the field (but was 5-12 from the free throw line) and grabbed seven rebounds. The team made slightly less shots and had less boards overall, which gave the Vols enough power to win this game.

Auburn has been one of the best offensive teams in the league, averaging 83.8 points a game and ranking 10th. Their defense has been solid at holding teams to 69.6 points each game, which ranks 101st. This is an appealing margin of safety.

The Tigers have the second-best ranking for strength of schedule and winning margins combined. Their efficiency on offense per 100 possessions ranks fourth, while their defense at the same rate ranks 82nd. This shows they are an excellent offensive team and do a good job on defense too.

Odds, Series Trends, and Free Pick

The best Alabama State Hornets vs. Auburn Tigers betting odds have been provided by MyBookie, revealing the Tigers as 32.5-point favorites. Current market predictions suggest the Tigers have a 99.0 percent chance of winning.

Auburn will likely not be messing around here and will want to put this game out of reach quickly. As for the spread, this would be appealing to pick the Tigers to cover.

Final Pick: Auburn Tigers -32.5 (-105)