NCAA Tournament Prediction: Midwest Region – Kentucky vs. Troy – Friday, March 21, 2025

The 14th-seed Troy Trojans (23-10) look to make noise in the tournament with their matchup against the third-seed Kentucky Wildcats (22-11) in the Midwest Region on Friday, March 21 at 7:10 PM ET at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. MyBookie offers the Wildcats favored with a point spread at -11.5 (-105).

Troy Trojans Betting Preview

The Trojans have great momentum with their six-game win streak under their belt. In their latest battle, they defeated the Arkansas State Red Wolves 94-81 in the Sun Belt Championship.

Tayton Conerway leads the team with 14.3 points and 4.8 assists per game, while making 47.2 percent of his field goals and 66.7 percent of his foul shots. Thomas Dowd will also be crucial here, as he averages 9.8 points and leads the team in rebounds per game with 6.8.

Troy averages 73.9 points per game, which ranks them at 177th in the nation. On the defensive end, they allow opponents to get 65.4 points a game and rank 25th. This shows a solid margin of error to work with, but will definitely be put to the test in arguably their toughest matchup of the season.

The Trojans are ranked 109th overall for their strength of schedule and winning point margins. They rank 128th in offensive efficiency per 100 possessions and 24th on defense for 100 possessions as well.

Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview

The Wildcats had a full season under their belt without their historic coach in John Calipari, as Mark Pope aims to lead the new era. They had a great regular season, but have gone 3-2 over their last five games. They are coming off a 99-70 blowout loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Tournament Quarterfinal.

Otega Oweh leads their scoring with 16.2 points a game on 48.9 percent shooting from the field and 78.2 percent from the foul line. Amari Williams is getting 11.0 points a game, but also leads with 8.5 rebounds and 3.1 assists each battle.

Kentucky is fourth in averaging 85.3 points a game. On defense, they are 324th in allowing 77.9 points a game. This spread can only work so much longer, as they are at risk each game with bad defense.

The Wildcats are 15th overall for their strength of schedule and point differentials. Their efficiency on offense per 100 possessions ranks 19th, while their defense in the same timespan ranks 240th.

Odds, Series Trends, and Free Pick

The best Troy Trojans vs. Kentucky Wildcats betting odds can be found through MyBookie. Current market predictions are pointing to the Wildcats winning with an 88.9 percent success rate. The Wildcats should have a good offensive game here to cover the spread.

Final Pick: Kentucky Wildcats -11.5 (-105)