NCAA Tournament Spread Pick & Prediction: East Region – Duke vs. Mount St. Mary’s – Friday, March 21, 2025

The 16th-seed Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers (23-12) live to fight another day as they take on top-seed Duke Blue Devils (31-3) in essentially a home game on Friday, March 21 at 2:50 PM ET at the Lenovo Center in Raleigh, North Carolina. MyBookie has the Blue Devils as overwhelming favorites with a point spread at -32.5 (-105).

Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers Betting Preview

The Mountaineers had a good performance in the First Four battle with the American University Eagles. This was an 83-72 triumph that granted them access to the Big Dance and they have won their last four games.

Dola Adebayo leads with 13.4 points per matchup and makes 52.3 percent of his field goals along with 73.8 percent of his free throws. Jedy Cordilia averages 10.4 points and 7.3 rebounds a game to help influence the outcome.

Mount St. Mary’s are averaging 70.4 points a game and rank 272nd in the nation. Their defense is allowing 69.8 points per magchup, which ranks 112th. With no room for error here, they will struggle against the Blue Devils.

The Mountaineers are the 264th-best team in the country for their strength of schedule and winning point margins. Their efficiency in the last 100 possessions on offense ranks 298th and 88th on defense.

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

The Blue Devils are having one of their best seasons ever statistically, which could potentially be better than any of Coach K’s seasons he had. Jon Scheyer is having a remarkable season coaching and it also helps that they have Cooper Flagg in the lineup.

They have won 11 straight games since the middle of February and are ACC Champs after beating the Louisville Cardinals 73-62. They also beat their rival North Carolina Tar Heels in all three matches, which is similar to playing in a March Madness game.

Duke is averaging 82.7 a game, ranking 15th, while their defense holds opponents to 61.9 points a game and ranks seventh. This is arguably one of the best margins of safety in college basketball.

The Blue Devils rank first overall for their strength of schedule and how much they are beating those teams by. In other words, they have faced the toughest road in college basketball and only lost three times out of the 30-plus games they have played. On top of that, their efficiency is the best in the nation on offense per 100 possessions and their defensive efficiency at the same rate ranks fourth.

Odds, Series Trends, and Free Pick

MyBookie gives you the best Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers vs. Duke Blue Devils betting odds to work with, showing the Blue Devils as 32.5-point favorites. Market analysis has the Blue Devils winning with a 99.0 percent success rate.

Yes the Blue Devils are going to win by a large margin, but at what cost? With Cooper Flagg coming back from a minor injury they are not going to play the starters more than they have to. Look for the Mountaineers to cover the spread.

Final Pick: Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers +32.5 (-115)