NCAA Football Betting Preview: Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs – 11/9/2019

by Mark Daloisio | November 8, 2019 |

The 12th ranked Baylor Bears (8-0, 3-0 away) travel to Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas to take on the TCU Horned Frogs (4-4, 3-1 home) in a Big-12 matchup on Saturday afternoon. 

Last week Baylor played host to West Virginia and barely escaped with a 17-14 win as 17½ point favorites to keep their undefeated season alive. TCU lost 34-27 at Oklahoma State failing to cover as 1½ point underdogs. 

These two met last season at Baylor and TCU came away with at 16-9 win.

Baylor Betting Preview 

Baylor (8-0) with a 5-0 conference record sets in first place in the Big-12 with a  one-game lead over 2nd place (4-1) Oklahoma. Kansas St, Texas & Iowa St are all tied for 3rd with 3-2 records. 

Baylor did not look like an undefeated team last week when they were nearly upset by West Virginia but pulled it out 17-14.

Baylor doubled West Virginia in first downs & total yards and held the ball for 13 minutes longer, but needed a 4th quarter field goal to break a tie and win the game. 

Baylor had leads of 7-0 & 14-7 in the 1st & 3rd quarters and each time WVU used big plays to tie the game. The first was an 83-yard TD pass to tie it at 7-7 and in the 3rd quarter they ran back the kickoff 95-yards right after Baylor took a 14-7 lead. 

With the game tied at 14-14, Baylor kicked a field goal to go up 17-14 but over ten minutes remained in the game. West Virginia’s next two drives only lasted three plays, but on a punt, they recovered a fumble that set them up with a chance to tie the game but the kick was blocked and that is the closest they got the rest of the game and Baylor survived.  

QB Charlie Brewer was 20/26 for 277 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.  JaMycal Hasty ran for 77 yards on 14 carries to lead the rushing attack.

QB Charlie Brewer ran 19 times for 25 yards as well.  Denzel Mims led the team in receiving with 99 yards on 5 catches and a touchdown while Tyquan Thornton added another 86 yards on 5 catches.  

Baylor is scoring 36.1 ppg while giving up 18.5 points per game.  Those 36.1 points per game have the Bears ranked 24th in the country.  The Bears defense is even slightly better when it comes to points allowed per game with a ranking of 20th in the nation.  This is a very talented, balanced group.  

TCU Betting Preview 

TCU (4-4) is not accustomed to being ranked 7th in the Big-12 standings.  They are 3 games back of 1st place Baylor with a 2-3 record and have virtually no shot of coming back. 

At this point, they need to work on being bowl eligible and a win over an undefeated ranked Baylor team will go a long way in doing so.  Last week they lost their 3rd game out of 4 with a 34-27 loss at Oklahoma State.  

TCU trailed early 10-0 before adding a field goal making it 10-3 at the end of a quarter.  The lead was pushed to 17-3 before the Horned Frogs scored two unanswered touchdowns via the air and ground and tied the game at 17-17 at the intermission. 

Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard scored on runs of 92 & 62 yards putting the Cowboys back on top 31-17 with just under ten minutes to play. TCU on a one-yard run pulled back within 7 at 31-24, but with 2:04 left Oklahoma State made it a two-score game with a 43-yard field goal. 

With just 22 seconds remaining TCU made it a one-score game again with a field goal of their own. The ensuing onside kick failed and the Cowboys ran out the clock for the victory.  

QB Max Duggan went 21/39 for 258 yards with one touchdown pass but threw three interceptions in the loss.  He was also the leading rusher with 86 yards on 18 carries and added a touchdown on the ground. Jalen Reagor led all receivers with 7 catches for 128 yards.  Taye Barber & Pro Wells combined for 112 more yards with one touchdown.  

TCU is scoring 33.4 ppg while giving up 26.1 points per game.  TCU is tied for 41st in the nation in points scored per game. On the other side of the ball, TCU is ranked just 58th in fewest points allowed per game.  Their defense has been down this season compared to recent previous years.

Baylor vs TCU Betting Lines

BetOnline has set this line at Baylor -2½ with an over/under of 48 points.  The line opened at Baylor -1

Free Betting Pick

TCU is never an easy place to win, but this year’s version is not as good as previous editions.  Baylor has a chance to have a special season and move up in the rankings with a win here and a win vs Oklahoma next week. 

They have Texas after that so the opportunity is there to climb up the rankings. They lose this week and all those hopes are gone.  I love the narrow escape last week as well. A good scare like that only helps a team in a year like this and it also gave us a much more reasonable line for this TCU game. 

If Baylor would have rolled West Virginia like they were supposed to, this line could very well have been 4-6 points. I will gladly take it at less than a field goal.

Spooky Express Free Pick: Baylor -2½ 

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