The UCF Knights enter this game ranked 22nd in the College Football Playoff Rankings and have won two of their last three games, but are coming off a 14-17 loss at home against the Navy Midshipmen which also ended their three-game winning streak.
Meanwhile, the South Florida Bulls enter this game having lost their previous nine matchups in a row and are coming off a 42-48 loss on the road against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.
BookMaker has the UCF Knights listed as 20-point favorites on the road against the South Florida Bulls and has set the total for the over/under plays at 68 points. Will the Knights win in a blowout on the road or will the Bulls keep the game closer than Vegas expects? Let’s take a look at how these teams have fared this season.
UCF Knights Team Preview
The UCF Knights enter this game with an overall record of 8-3 and an AAC record of 5-2 which includes a 14-17 loss at home against the Navy Midshipmen. UCF outgained Navy 314 to 248 total yards offensively but was -2 in the turnover department in the loss. The Knights are 7-4 ATS overall, 3-1 ATS on the road, 6-4 ATS as a favorite, and 5-2 ATS in Conference games this season.
John Rhys Plumlee leads the team in passing completing 167 of 264 attempts for 2,122 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions while also leading the team in rushing with 715 yards and nine touchdowns on 128 attempts. Javon Baker leads the team in receiving with 47 receptions for 659 yards and five touchdowns.
South Florida Bulls Team Preview
The South Florida Bulls enter this game with an overall record of 1-10 and an AAC record of 0-7 which includes a 42-48 loss on the road against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. South Florida was outgained by Tulsa 499 to 573 total yards offensively and was -2 in the turnover department in the loss. The Bulls are 4-7 ATS overall, 0-5 ATS at home, 4-5 ATS as an underdog, and 3-4 ATS in Conference games this season.
Gerry Bohanon leads the team in passing completing 91 of 160 attempts for 1,070 yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions while rushing for 386 yards and three touchdowns. Brian Battie leads the team in rushing with 157 carries for 1,042 yards and seven touchdowns while adding 13 receptions for 82 yards. Xavier Weaver leads the team in receiving with 53 receptions for 718 yards and six touchdowns.
Series Trends and Game Pick
UCF has won seven of the last ten games in the series and has won by an average score of 29.3 to 26.1 while South Florida is 6-4 ATS in those matchups. The Knights have won the last three games and have won by an average score of 36.33 to 22 while the Bulls are 2-1 ATS in those contests.
The under has hit in six of the last ten games in the series with the teams combining for an average of 55.4 points per game in those contests. The under has hit in two of the last three games with the teams combining for an average of 58.33 points per game in those matchups.
UCF has been the better team this season and in the series, winning seven of the last ten including the previous five matchups in a row. However, the Bulls have been the better team at covering the spread in the series, going 6-4 ATS in the last ten and 2-1 ATS in the last three games. As a result, I am taking the South Florida Bulls +20 on BookMaker for this matchup on Saturday.