NCAA March Madness Tournament Betting Preview: Purdue Boilermakers vs. Villanova Wildcats – Saturday, March 23, 2019

by | Mar 22, 2019 | NCAA Football

Matchup at a Glance

When: Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 8:40 PM EST

Where: XL Center in Hartford, Connecticut

Point Spread: Purdue -4

Betting Total: 137 points

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Moving into the round of 32 is the defending champion (#6)Villanova Wildcats and the (#3)Purdue Boilermakers.  Villanova as a 3½ point favorite edged the (#11)St Mary’s 61-57 in the opener.

Villanova struggled with St Mary’s defense most of the game but managed the big buckets when then needed them.   

Purdue as a 12½ favorite also barely covered in a 61-48 win over (#14)Old Dominion. Purdue really coasted in this one.

The score does not indicate how the game went.  Even though not a true blowout, Purdue was in complete control. This is a pretty even matchup and should be a very entertaining game with the winner going to the Sweet Sixteen.  Even though there is not a long history to speak about, Villanova has won all three meetings with Purdue with the most recent a 79-76 win at Purdue in November of 2016.

Game Location

This game is being played at XL Center in Hartford, Connecticut with the tip-off scheduled to take place at 8:40 PM EST

Betting Odds

BetOnline has set the point spread for this game at Purdue -4 and the over/under has been set at 137 points

Villanova Wildcats

There is some sort of mystic with this team.  I may not have given Villanova enough credit. I thought St Mary’s would beat them, (I had St Mary’s +4½ WINNER), but they did what they needed to do and pulled it out.  Villanova is younger this year, but they do have two seniors in Phil Booth & Eric Paschall who know what this is all about.  

Both of them have championship rings from last year’s team. People seem to forget that just three years ago Villanova was crowned national champs as well and both Booth and Paschall were part of that team.  You cannot touch that type of experience and coaching in games of this magnitude.

Villanova (26-9)(21-14 ATS) is scoring 74.1 ppg while giving up 57.0 ppg.  Offensively they are ranked 97th in points scored per game. Defensively they are ranked 49th in points allowed per game.  

Phil Booth is leading the team in scoring with 18.7 ppg and Eric Paschall is right behind with 16.5 points a game. Eric Paschall leads the team in rebounding with 6.2 per game.  Our scoring leader Phil Booth, is also the assist leader with 3.8 per game.

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Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue is kind of that sneaky team that people do not pay attention to.  So many when you think of the Big-10 think Michigan & Michigan St, or even Indiana and Ohio State.  It is just a public perception type of thing.

Then you look at the standings and say “I didn’t know Purdue was that good”.   Purdue always seems to be on the edge of greatness, but just cannot get there. They are trying to reach the Sweet Sixteen for the 3rd straight year.  

Purdue (24-9)(18-15 ATS) is scoring 75.7 ppg while giving up 48.0 ppg.  Offensively they are ranked 72nd in points scored per game. Defensively they are ranked 43rd in points allowed per game.  

Carsen Edwards with 23.1 ppg is the team leader is scoring. Nojel Eastern leads the team in rebounding with 5.8 per game. Looking at assists with 3.3 dishes per game is Ryan Cline.

Keys Trends/Stats/Notes

  • Villanova is 14-1 SU past 4 tournaments
  • Villanova & Purdue are both 4-6 ATS last 10
  • Villanova is 8-0 SU on neutral courts this season

Sticking with my guns and going against Villanova again.  Villanova goes home tonight!

In my humble opinion, the Captain Obvious pick would be Villanova +4.  They have two seniors, with rings on their fingers and a young group of guys with most of another year under their belts.  Outside of a 3 game losing streak in mid-February, they have done pretty well especially closing out the year.

Throw in the fact Nova has always been known as a great underdog.  Then you have maybe an under appreciated Purdue team who seems to get close every year but needs to take another step forward. Sure they are the higher seed in this game, but it kind of feels to me like they are the underdog!   

I think the really smart money will be on Purdue tonight. Line opened at 3 and is already up to 4. If I did not think Villanova was good enough to beat St Mary’s, than I certainly can think they are good enough to beat Purdue.    It won’t be easy. Purdue 68-62.

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Purdue Boilermakers -4

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