App State vs Boise State Odds, Picks & Prediction

Appalachian State faces Boise State on Saturday, September 27, 2025, at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho, with kickoff scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on FS1. Boise State is a double-digit favorite, and both teams enter the matchup with a 2-1 record this season.

Game Details

Date/Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
TV: FS1 (Fox Sports 1)
Current Records: Appalachian State 2-1, Boise State 2-1
Weather: Forecast is 81°F, clear with little wind and no rain expected at kickoff

Fast Facts

Boise State has won 13 consecutive home games.
The Broncos’ defense is ranked 97th in total defense nationally (393 yards allowed per game).
Appalachian State covers as a double-digit underdog: 7 of their last 10 when getting 10+ points, including 3 outright wins.
Situational Angle: Boise State may be in a lookahead spot with Notre Dame next week, while App State is coming off a bye and motivation is high due to the passing of former HC Shawn Clark.

Recaps

Boise State (2–1)
The Broncos rebounded from a Week 1 stumble at USF with back-to-back 50-burgers: 51–14 vs. Eastern Washington and 49–37 at Air Force. Through three games, Boise is averaging 535.7 yards per game (No. 11 FBS), 291.7 passing ypg and 244.0 rushing ypg, scoring 35.7 ppg but allowing 28.3 ppg. That’s explosive offense with a leaky defense.

Two names matter most for bettors: QB Maddux Madsen (808 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT) and RB Dylan Riley (314 rush yds, 5 TD). Riley just shredded Air Force and has emerged as a genuine big-play back. Madsen did pick up a left-leg knock in Colorado Springs, played through it in a brace, and is expected to go this week per local reports. Translation: he’s not 100%, but he’s in line to start.

App State (2–1)
Under new head coach Dowell Loggains, the Mountaineers opened with wins over Charlotte and FCS Lindenwood, then got thumped at Southern Miss. Even with that loss, App’s offense has been high-octane through three games: 519.7 total ypg, 357.7 passing ypg, 162.0 rushing ypg. They’re moving the chains (79 first downs) but sitting at 25.3 ppg thanks in part to a -3 turnover margin. QB AJ Swann leads with 879 yards (5 TD, 4 INT), RB Rashod Dubinion has 400 rush yards, and WR Jaden Barnes is at 337 receiving yards.

Defensively, App’s run D has been stout on paper 61.7 opponent rush ypg though the schedule context matters (Charlotte + an FCS foe before USM). It’s still a notable strength for a trip to the blue turf.

The matchup

Boise’s offense vs. App State’s defense
Boise can score in bunches and converts 50% on third down, a healthy number that keeps drives alive. The Broncos’ Achilles’ heel: red-zone efficiency. They’ve scored on 66.7% of trips (10/15), which is bottom-tier for a favorite laying north of two touchdowns. App’s defense, meanwhile, has been better against the run than the pass, and if that holds, it nudges Boise toward a Madsen-centric game when he’s a little banged up. That’s not disqualifying, but it introduces volatility on a big spread.

App State’s offense vs. Boise State’s defense
On the flip side, this is the scary part for Boise backers: App brings a top-15 yardage offense and 357.7 passing ypg into a defense giving up 226.3 passing ypg and 28.3 ppg and that’s before noting Boise’s red-zone defense has allowed scores on 100% of opponent trips so far. If Swann takes care of the ball even a little better than he did at Southern Miss, sustained drives and points are on the table.

Betting pick

Pick: Appalachian State +16.5
Boise is the rightful favorite at home, and Riley’s emergence gives the Broncos a high ceiling. App State’s 519.7 ypg offense and top-line pass production travel, and Boise’s defense has permitted both yardage and points through three games. With Madsen likely playing hurt, a late back-door (or simple trading scores) feels very live. Grab +16.5; I’d still play +16.0 at standard juice.

Lean: Over 61.5.
I project a Boise 38, App State 24 final (that’s 62). The handicap hinges on App’s ability to throw into a secondary that’s been generous and Boise’s tendency to allow touchdowns once the opponent gets deep. If the number closes 61.5+, I’d still lean Over but would reduce stake size.