The 2025 Arizona State at Mississippi State football game is scheduled for Saturday, September 6, 2025, at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi, with kickoff set for 6:30 p.m. CT (4:30 p.m. MST). The game will be broadcast on ESPN2 and streamed via ESPN platforms.

Game Details

Date & Time: Saturday, September 6, 2025 – 6:30 p.m. Central Time (4:30 p.m. Mountain)
Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Mississippi
TV Broadcast: ESPN2
Radio: ESPN 620 (Arizona broadcast)

Market snapshot (odds & totals)

As of today, Bet105 is dealing Arizona State -6.5 (-105) with a total of 59.5; moneylines are ASU -225 / MSST +190.

Rankings and models tilt modestly toward the road favorite: Arizona State is No. 12 in the AP poll, and ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Sun Devils a 54.3% win probability. Against the spread through one game: ASU 0–1 ATS, Mississippi State 1–0 ATS.

Series & Recent History

This is the second-ever meeting between the schools
2024 result: Arizona State defeated Mississippi State 30-23 in Tempe, highlighted by Cam Skattebo’s 262 rushing yards and a late Bulldogs comeback attempt.

Team Trends & Performance

Arizona State is 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last eight games, and the total has gone OVER in its last five.
Mississippi State is 1-0 ATS this season, and recent home games have featured competitive performances.

What we’ve actually seen so far

Arizona State offense vs. Mississippi State defense

Arizona State opened with a 38–19 win over Northern Arizona, and the box score told two stories at once. The good: 460 total yards, explosive plays, and QB Sam Leavitt looked like that guy 257 passing yards (25/39, 2 TD, 1 INT) and 73 rushing yards with two rushing TDs. WR Jordyn Tyson was unguardable (12–141–2). The less good: 1-for-10 on third down and 12 penalties for 93 yards drive-killers that kept the margin respectable. That profile (chunk plays + self-inflicted stalls) is classic early-September volatility.

Mississippi State’s defense just faced a mobile QB (Southern Miss’s Braylon Braxton) and held up after halftime. The Bulldogs flipped the game with a 21–0 third quarter, finished with 465–301 yardage and won 34–17 on the road. But they also committed 14 penalties for 119 yards. Discipline wasn’t optional last week and it won’t be here Davis Wade can rattle opponents, but flags are the equalizer.

What that means in the matchup: Leavitt’s dual-threat ability stresses edges and linebackers, especially when ASU uses tempo and wide formations. Mississippi State’s best answers are early-down disruption and keeping contain so the QB doesn’t turn third-and-7 into fourth-and-1 with his legs. If State keeps ASU in long third downs, the Sun Devils’ Week 1 10% conversion rate is a pressure point that could carry over on the road.

Mississippi State offense vs. Arizona State defense

Blake Shapen’s return was the headline: 26/34 for 270 yards (1 TD, 1 INT), with TE Seydou Traore (5–77–1) and WR Brenen Thompson (7–92) doing damage downfield. On the ground, Davon Booth ran 16 times for 79 yards and a TD, and the Bulldogs converted 11-of-17 on third down that’s sustainable offense even without gaudy explosives. The caveat is the flags; 14 penalties are how you let better teams hang around.

Arizona State’s defense allowed 331 yards to NAU and was decent against the run (3.1 YPC allowed), but the Sun Devils also piled up sacks and negative plays with a deep front seven rotation. In a loud environment, that pass rush plus disguised creepers is the kind of thing that can force Shapen into a mistake or two though he was calm last week and, by all reports, came out of the opener healthy and confident heading into this test.

Tempo, totals, and the “feel” of the game

Both coaches (Kenny Dillingham and Jeff Lebby) lean into pace and space. That usually screams Over, and the number (58.5–59.5) reflects it. But two things temper the fireworks:

Penalty volume ASU 93 yards, MSST 119 yards can shred rhythm and scoring efficiency.
Early-season third downs ASU’s 1-for-10 is a legit red flag on the road, while MSST’s 11-for-17 is probably due for some regression versus a better front.

Layer in a night game with cowbells and first home crowd of the year, and you get a recipe for a couple weird possessions burned timeouts, false starts, a drive stalling at the fringe of field-goal range. That’s why the 59.5 vs. 58.5 split matters; 59 is a semi-key region for modern college totals.

Where the edges appear

Explosives: ASU has the higher ceiling for splash plays (Leavitt/Tyson plus Raleek Brown in space). If this becomes a race to 35, the Sun Devils have the better “one-play” answers.
Sustained drives: Mississippi State was more on-schedule in Week 1 (success on third down, balanced run/pass), which tends to travel… and also tends to hold up at home.
Game state: If ASU jumps ahead, that stresses a still-gelling MSST OL vs. ASU’s pass rush. If MSST lands the first punch, the Starkville noise factor ramps up and ASU’s third-down bugaboo becomes a storyline again. (ESPN’s model only leans ASU 54–46, so this isn’t some lopsided projection)
Market/read: Nationally, there’s been some “Mississippi State live dog” chatter; even CBS Sports’ projections piece for Week 2 notes value on the Bulldogs. That squares with the ATS split after Week 1.

Betting Picks

Side (best bet): Mississippi State +6.5
I project a one-score game most of the time. ASU is the better team on paper, but the combo of ASU’s third-down inefficiency, both teams’ penalty profiles, and Mississippi State’s ability to stay ahead of the sticks points toward a close script into the fourth quarter. The number gives you cushion against an ASU win by 3–6. If you like a little spice, a small sprinkle on the MSST moneyline at +190 is reasonable in a home opener where crowd energy can flip one or two high-leverage snaps.

Total (lean): Under 59.5
Not a hammer, but I lean under the 59.5, and I’d much rather have Under 59.5 than Under 58.5. Two hurry-up systems can still produce fewer points than expected if you’re living in behind-the-chains land. Penalties and a couple red-zone field goals instead of touchdowns would be enough to land this in the mid-50s.

Projected score: Arizona State 30, Mississippi State 27
That respects the ranking/model edge for ASU while capturing the betting value on Bulldogs +6.5. If turnovers break MSST’s way or if ASU’s third-down woes persist 31–28 Mississippi State is absolutely on the table.

Player props to watch (if/when they post)

Sam Leavitt rushing yards (Over): Designed QB keepers + scramble equity were a big piece of Week 1 (73 yards, 2 TD). If online sportsbooks hang a modest number because it’s the first Power-5 defense he’s seen this season, I’m interested.
Seydou Traore receiving (Over): Shapen looked comfortable hitting the tight end up the seam and on crossers; Traore’s usage (5–77–1) suggests a trustworthy chain-mover in a game where MSST will need third-down answers again.