Arizona State vs Texas State Picks & Prediction for Sept 13, 2025

Two programs that like to play fast and push the ball downfield meet under the desert lights on Saturday as Texas State travels to Tempe to face Arizona State at Mountain America Stadium. Kick is set for 10:30 p.m. ET (7:30 p.m. MST) on TNT/Max.

Game and Broadcast Information

• Date & Time: September 13, 2025 (7:30 p.m. MST / 10:30 p.m. EDT).
• Location: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ.
• TV: TNT, Max.
• Radio: ESPN 620 AM.

Betting odds

Most offshore sportsbooks have Arizona State as roughly a two-touchdown favorite with a high total:

• Spread: Arizona State -14.5 / Texas State +14.5
• Total: 59.5
• Moneyline: ASU around -580, Texas State around +420.

Gametime temperature is currently listed around 95° in Tempe.

How they’re trending

Texas State has opened 2–0 with a 52–27 win over Eastern Michigan and a 43–36 rivalry victory at UTSA. The Bobcats are scoring 47.5 points per game and averaging a robust 530 yards of offense 250 passing and 280 rushing per game. The flip side: they’ve allowed 31.5 points and 427.5 yards per game, including 194 on the ground.

Arizona State sits 1–1. The Sun Devils beat Northern Arizona 38–19 in Week 1, then fell 24–20 at Mississippi State on a last-minute deep shot. Through two, ASU is at 29.0 points per game with 395.5 yards of offense and notably a strong 226 rushing yards per game but some passing inconsistency has shown up early. The defense has been sturdier than the raw scorelines suggest: 338.0 yards allowed per game, with a stingy 77.5 rushing yards allowed.

Betting Angles and Trends

Against the Spread (ATS) and Trends

• Arizona State is 0-2 ATS in their last 2 games this season.
• Texas State is 5-2 ATS in its past 7 games, showing an ability to cover as an underdog.
• The OVER has hit in 6 of Texas State’s last 7 contests, indicating high-scoring trends.

Team Angles

• Texas State: Dynamic offense (50+ points in a game this year), covers spreads, frequent OVER results; if the game becomes a shootout, look for Texas State to keep it close or cover the big spread.
• Arizona State: Entered as Big 12 champs but struggling ATS lately, favored by two touchdowns due to home field and national profile.

Key matchups & numbers to know

1) Texas State’s vertical threats vs. ASU’s secondary
Transfer QB Brad Jackson has been efficient and explosive (500 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT), and WR Beau Sparks has already cashed five touchdowns with 237 yards on just 12 grabs. Against an ASU pass defense that’s yielded 260.5 yards per game (115th nationally at this stage), that’s the most obvious pressure point in the matchup. If Sparks draws rolling safety help, Texas State has been happy to spread it around and pair shots with tempo.

2) Can ASU’s ground game control the script?
The Sun Devils have leaned on their run game early behind Raleek Brown (148 yards on 23 carries) and a physical line. Texas State’s defense has been leaky on the ground (194.0 rushing yards allowed per game), which invites a plan where ASU shortens the game, protects the ball and leans on body blows. If ASU lives on schedule (2nd-and-5s instead of 2nd-and-10s), the 14.5 makes more sense.

3) Third down & penalties
Two telling early-season splits: ASU ranks near the bottom nationally in third-down conversions (20.8%), and they’ve racked up penalties at a 71 yards-per-game clip. Texas State’s defense has been middle-of-the-pack in getting off the field (33.3% allowed). If those trends hold, the underdog gains extra possessions and extra shots for free.

4) Red-zone perfection (so far)
Both teams are a perfect 100% scoring in the red zone to date. That’s small-sample theater, but it matters when handicapping a big spread: if Texas State’s drives end in sixes rather than threes, backdoor windows stay open.

5) Desert heat, late local kick
With a 7:30 p.m. local start, temperatures should be cooling but it’s still Tempe. ESPN lists gametime around 95°, which could tilt depth and second-half stamina toward ASU’s bigger bodies unless tempo turns this into a track meet and drags the home front seven into more snaps than it wants.

Personnel snapshot

• Texas State leaders: QB Brad Jackson (500 pass yds, 5 TD, 1 INT), RB Lincoln Pare (238 rush yds, 2 TD), WR Beau Sparks (237 rec yds, 5 TD).
• Arizona State leaders: QB Sam Leavitt (339 pass yds, 3 TD, 3 INT), RB Raleek Brown (148 rush yds, 1 TD), WR Jordyn Tyson (209 rec yds, 3 TD).

ASU’s Week 2 loss in Starkville was a late gut-punch (58-yard TD allowed with :30 left), which tends to sharpen a coaching staff’s focus the following week at home. But it also put on film how to bother the Sun Devils on passing downs.

A quick look back & context

These teams met last September, with ASU escaping 31–28. That one was tight throughout and instructive for how Texas State’s speed can stress Arizona State in space when the Bobcats avoid negative plays.

Program-wise, Texas State looks like a team still on the rise under G.J. Kinne entering its final Sun Belt season with expectations before a move to the Pac-12 so this is a profile game for the Bobcats. ASU, meanwhile, is hyping the night as a “Maroon Monsoon” and the first TNT/Max appearance of the season, a small but real boost for crowd and energy.

Handicap & prediction

From a numbers standpoint, two forces tug in opposite directions:

• Arizona State’s run defense (77.5 rush ypg allowed) vs. Texas State’s balanced pace (280 rush ypg). If ASU keeps early-down runs to 3-4 yards instead of explosives, the Sun Devils force Jackson into must-throw sequences where their pass rush can tee off.
• ASU’s third-down woes and penalties vs. Texas State’s red-zone strike rate. The Bobcats don’t need a dozen sustained 12-play drives; a handful of chunk plays plus clean finishes will keep them within range—and live for a backdoor cover.

I’m also weighing game flow. If ASU grabs an early two-score lead, the Bobcats won’t blink at tempo. Given how vulnerable ASU has been through the air and how quickly Sparks can flip a possession, late variance cuts both ways—but it favors the big underdog.

Projected game script: ASU’s ground game sets the tone, but Texas State hits enough explosives to trade scores. The heat and depth tilt a few fourth-quarter stops to the home team, yet the Bobcats’ offense travels and keeps them inside the number.

Pick: Texas State +14.5 (-110). Lean Over 59.5 if you prefer totals both red-zone units have been perfect, and explosive-play profiles on each side point to swings that push this into the 60s.

Projected score: Arizona State 34, Texas State 27.