Ball State vs UConn will take place Saturday, September 20, 2025, at 3:30 PM ET at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field in East Hartford, Connecticut, with UConn as a 21-point home favorite and the over/under set at 53.5 points.

Game Location and Broadcast

Date and Time: September 20, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
Stadium: Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field, East Hartford, CT
TV: CBS Sports Network, streaming on Fubo

Against-the-Spread (ATS) Trends

Ball State has covered the spread in 8 of last 13 games (61.5%) and 2 of 3 games this season.
Ball State covers first-half and first-quarter spreads often, hitting in 8 of last 13 and 6 of last 10, respectively.

Over/Under Trends

Ball State has hit the game total over in 8 of last 13 outings.
UConn has hit the game total over in 7 of last 13 but the first-half total under in 5 of last 6 at home.
Both teams allow high points per game (Ball State: 34, UConn: 28), suggesting potential for a high total.

Team Recaps

UConn’s 1–2 start hides an offense that’s humming. The Huskies hung 59 on CCSU in Week 0, then lost back-to-back OT games at Syracuse (27–20) and Delaware (44–41). Joe Fagnano has been sharp (865 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT through three), with Cam Edwards pacing the ground game (306 yards, 3 TD) and Skyler Bell stretching defenses (332 receiving yards). The concern is defense: UConn allowed 512 yards and multiple explosives in the Delaware loss.

Ball State’s trajectory is the inverse: battered by Purdue (31–0) and Auburn (42–3), then a confidence-builder vs New Hampshire (34–29). That win showcased what first-year head coach Mike Uremovich wants this offense to be: QB Kiael Kelly as a dual-threat and RB Qua Ashley as the bell cow. Against UNH, Ashley logged 154 rushing yards and two rushing TDs (plus a receiving TD), Kelly ran for 102 and threw two scores.

The Pass Rush

Quietly, this game pits two of the nation’s most disruptive pass-rush units so far. Ball State is tied for 4th nationally in total sacks (11) through three games; UConn is tied for 9th (10). Edge Nathan Voorhis (BSU) has 4.5 sacks, while UConn transfer LB Bryun Parham has exploded for 5. That matters because both teams want to live on early-down efficiency and keep their QBs out of long yardage.

UConn’s pressure is real, but so is its volatility. In those back-to-back OTs, the Huskies generated sacks… and then surrendered chunk plays that flipped the script (70-yard TD run and a 68-yard TD pass at Delaware). If Ball State can keep Kelly upright and stay ahead of the sticks with designed QB runs and Ashley’s downhill bursts, the Cardinals can shorten the game and frustrate a Huskies defense that’s been feast-or-famine.

Matchup edges

When UConn has the ball: Expect tempo and balance. Fagnano is seeing the field, the OL is solid in pass pro, and the Huskies’ route concepts have produced explosives each week. Ball State’s defense, however, is legitimately a step up from what UConn saw vs CCSU and Delaware in terms of pass rush. If BSU’s front (Voorhis & friends) wins on early downs, it can force UConn into 3rd-and-long, where sacks and long field goals live. Still, UConn’s vertical shots to Bell and play-action seams can punish single-high looks.

When Ball State has the ball: It’s inside-zone, QB keepers, and misdirection to slow down UConn’s aggressive second level. The Cardinals just ran for 308 vs UNH; UConn just got gashed by Delaware. The recipe is obvious: lean on Ashley, blend Kelly’s legs, and accept short fields off special teams or a few explosive keepers. UConn’s front seven does create negative plays (double-digit sacks), but run-fit consistency has wobbled the last two weeks.

Numbers to know

Sacks: Ball State 11 (T-4th FBS); UConn 10 (T-9th). Parham (UConn) 5 sacks; Voorhis (Ball State) 4.5. Translation: negative plays are coming for both offenses.
UConn’s efficiency: 1,008 passing yards, 7 pass TD, 0 INT across the QB room (Fagnano responsible for 865/5/0). Explosives are there; turnovers aren’t.
Ball State’s path: 34 points, 308 rush yards last week after scoring 3 total across two P5 road trips. A run-centric identity is settling in.

Betting pick

Laying three full touchdowns with a defense that just surrendered 512 yards (and multiple explosives) is a tough sell, even if UConn’s offense is the best unit on the field. Ball State’s run game plus a top-10 pass rush profile is a classic big-dog cover recipe: shorten the game, generate a couple of drive-killing sacks, and turn this into a 60-minute grind where 17–20 points of margin is the likeliest band. Market-wide, the spread sits around -21/-21.5 with a total 53.5; at those numbers, the value side is the underdog and a mild lean to the Over given UConn’s scoring form, but the stronger angle is the spread.

Best Bet: Ball State +21.5 (-125 or better).
Projected score: UConn 34, Ball State 20.