Boise State vs Nevada Prediction, Odds & Expert Pick

Boise State vs. Nevada on Friday, October 24, 2025 (10:00 p.m. ET, CBSSN) at Mackay Stadium in Reno. Odds are lopsided, the on-field matchup looks even more so, and there are a few angles worth zeroing in on if you’re playing the spread or total.

Boise State rolls into Week 9 on the heels of a statement win over previously unbeaten UNLV, 56–31, a game that showcased exactly why the Broncos are a tier (or three) above much of the Mountain West right now. RB Dylan Riley ripped UNLV for 201 rushing yards on 15 carries, QB Maddux Madsen tossed four TDs, and the defense slammed the door in the second half with a 60-yard pick-six by A’Marion McCoy. That’s a complete game across all three phases and the kind of profile that travels.

Nevada, meanwhile, is still searching. The Wolf Pack fell 24–22 at New Mexico last week and have struggled to find stable quarterback play. True freshman Carter Jones has taken the reins of late, and while he’s shown poise, growing pains show up in the stat line. Across the season, Nevada’s passing production and efficiency lag behind the FBS middle class, and the turnover issues have been hard to shake.

Where the numbers sit now

As of today, online sportsbooks list Boise State -21.5 with a total of 51, and moneylines around Boise -1900 to -2100 / Nevada +1000 to +1100 depending on the shop.

Matchups

Boise State offense vs. Nevada defense
This is the mismatch. Boise’s balance is legit: 36.9 points per game, 205.6 rush ypg, 273 pass ypg, and 478.6 total ypg top-30 nationally in the major offensive categories. Nevada’s defense isn’t dreadful by its recent standards (mid-pack in the league against the run and pass), but the gulf in total offense/efficiency is real. Boise ranks 12th nationally in total offense (478.6 ypg); Nevada sits at 302 ypg on offense and tends to leave its defense on the field too long. If Riley gets early chunk gains, play-action to Chris Marshall (Boise’s leading receiver, 440 yards) becomes a problem for Nevada’s corners.

Nevada offense vs. Boise State defense
The Wolf Pack’s path is narrow: shorten the game, run enough with Caleb Ramseur to get into manageable downs, and protect the ball. The data hasn’t cooperated—Nevada’s turnover margin is -1.29, and they’re bottom-10 nationally in scoring (15.6 ppg). Boise’s defense isn’t elite vs. the run, but it’s top-35 in pass defense (189.7 ypg), which is where Nevada has struggled most. Asking a freshman QB to keep pace with Boise’s scoring rate is a stretch unless the Pack get short fields.

Quarterbacks & skill talent

Maddux Madsen (BSU): 1,823 yards, 15 TD, 6 INT; steady, efficient, good in structure, and paired with a deep backfield (Riley, Sire Gaines, Malik Sherrod).
Carter Jones (NEV): 517 yards, 3 TD, 3 INT (team leaders), with Chubba Purdy having earlier reps but turnover issues. Jett Carpenter (TE) leads Nevada in receiving (198 yards). The ceiling is modest; the floor is dangerous against a Boise defense that creates negative plays.

Betting trends

Boise State is 6–1 ATS this season (through Week 8).
Nevada is 3–4 ATS this year
Boise is 5–0 ATS in its last five as a double-digit favorite
Turnovers: Nevada’s -1.29 TO margin is one of the worst nationally

How it likely plays out

Game script leans Boise early and often. The Broncos can win at the line of scrimmage Riley behind a confident run-blocking unit then layer in shot plays to Marshall and Ben Ford against a Nevada secondary that’s been serviceable but will be stressed by time of possession and field position. Nevada’s best chance is to churn clock with Ramseur, hit a couple of tight end seams to Carpenter, and force a takeaway or two to keep it inside three scores. That’s plausible, but the math says it’s more likely Boise’s pace pushes this into the mid-30s by itself.

Also worth noting: Boise just proved it can handle a fast, explosive offense (UNLV) and still cover comfortably, even after a shaky start. When a favorite shows both ceiling and resilience, laying north of three touchdowns on the road isn’t as scary especially against an opponent still figuring out QB and protection.

The pick (spread & total)

Side: Boise State -21.5. My number makes this closer to -24/-24.5. Boise’s balanced top-20 offense versus Nevada’s bottom-tier scoring output plus the turnover gap gives the Broncos multiple paths to cover (sustained drives, short fields, defensive score).
Total: Over 51 (lean). Boise’s offense is humming, and Nevada has reached double figures in every game give me something like 41–13 with late-game Boise rushing still moving the chains. If you’re skittish, split stake: full on the side, half on the Over.

Final score prediction

Boise State 41, Nevada 13. Broncos cover. Slight lean to the Over. The gap in offensive efficiency, QB stability, and turnover reliability is just too wide, and Boise has shown it can stack scores in bunches even on the road.