BYU vs Colorado Odds, Picks & Prediction | Sept 27, 2025
The BYU Cougars and Colorado Buffaloes will face off on September 27, 2025, at Folsom Field in Boulder, CO, in a pivotal Big 12 conference game. BYU enters as a 6.5-point favorite with a powerful running attack and top-ranked defense, while Colorado looks to build on recent offensive improvements but is an underdog against the nationally ranked Cougars.
Game Details
- Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, at 10:15 p.m. EDT
- Location: Folsom Field, Boulder, Colorado
- TV Broadcast: ESPN
Odds & Betting Lines
| Favorite | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | -6.5 | -253 | 48.5 | -110 |
| Colorado | +6.5 | +204 | 48.5 | -110 |
Key Stats
| Metric | BYU (Rank) | Colorado (Rank) |
|---|---|---|
| Points per Game | 43.3 (17th) | 27 (83rd) |
| Yards per Game (Total) | 452 (33rd) | 375 (83rd) |
| Rushing Yards per Game | 265.7 (7th) | 141.3 (90th) |
| Defensive Points per Game | 5.3 (1st) | 22.5 (66th) |
| Turnover Margin | +5 (10th) | — |
Trends
- BYU is 7-0 ATS in their last September games; Colorado has failed to cover in three of its last four conference games.
- Colorado’s offense ranks 83rd overall, defense is 66th in points allowed.
- BYU excels in first-half defense (No. 2 nationally in fewest points allowed before halftime).
- BYU is 13-0 SU in September games as a favorite vs non-ranked teams, and 7-0 ATS in recent September contests.
- Colorado has failed to cover in 3-of-4 Big 12 matchups and struggles vs ranked competition (lost last 7).
- BYU’s defense is No. 1 in FBS (5.3 ppg allowed). Colorado’s defensive splits are average, but their offense is likely to be limited by BYU’s early-game shutdown capabilities (FBS No. 2 in first-half points allowed).
- BYU excels in the first half (No. 2 for lowest points allowed before halftime, best average point differential in Q2). Colorado’s Q3 splits and point differential are negative, making BYU a strong first half pick.
Recaps
BYU rolls into Boulder 3–0, freshly ranked No. 25 in the AP poll after a 34–13 road win at East Carolina. Colorado is 2–2 and just handled Wyoming 37–20 behind a spark from senior QB Kaidon Salter.
If you like a narrative angle, this is also a rematch of last season’s Alamo Bowl, which BYU controlled, 36–14. That’s ancient history in betting terms, but it does give us a blueprint for how Kalani Sitake wants to attack a Deion Sanders defense: lean on the run game, win field position, ugly up the middle eight minutes..
Matchup: when BYU has the ball
Through three games, BYU’s identity is clear: run first, control the clock, play complementary ball. The Cougars are averaging 265.7 rushing yards per game (7th nationally) and 33:19 time of possession (17th). RB LJ Martin is the tone-setter (40 carries, 342 yards, 8.6 per; 1 TD), and true-freshman QB Bear Bachmeier has been efficient enough to keep safeties honest (518 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT; 66.7%). BYU is also +5 in turnover margin—they’ve been clean.
Colorado’s defense, meanwhile, has been leaky against the run: 194.5 rushing yards allowed per game (122nd) and 409.3 total yards allowed (112th). Dig deeper and it matches the eye test through the first four games the Buffs have surrendered 778 rush yards on 171 attempts (4.55 per) and 6 rushing TDs. If BYU holds serve up front, that’s the pressure point.
One wrinkle: BYU’s one offensive blemish so far is red-zone finishing (they’ve traded too many TDs for field goals). That could keep a cover in doubt if drives stall. Still, Colorado’s third-down defense hasn’t been special, and BYU’s red-zone defense has been stingy enough to flip the hidden points back in BYU’s favor. (BYU red-zone defense: opponents score 66.7% of trips; BYU defense 2nd nationally in rush yards allowed per game; 6th nationally in opponent third-down conversions.)
Matchup: when Colorado has the ball
The Buffs’ offense is evolving around Kaidon Salter, a true dual threat. He’s at 565 passing yards, 4 TD, 0 INT with 153 rushing yards and 3 more TDs; against Wyoming he posted 304/3 through the air plus 86 and a score on the ground. He’s dangerous once the initial read breaks down. WR Sincere Brown (7-203-2) has emerged as a vertical outlet.
The issue is the opponent: BYU’s defense has been elite early 205.3 yards allowed per game (2nd), 44.3 rush yards allowed (2nd), 5.3 points per game (1st). They squeeze possession, get off the field, and don’t give you cheap yards. Their time-of-possession edge also keeps the Cougar defense fresh late, which matters at altitude. (Colorado: 27:56 average possession, 106th.)
If Colorado can win on early downs and keep Salter out of 3rd-and-long, this can flip. But BYU’s third-down defense (allowing 22% conversions) paired with a +5 turnover margin has been tough to crack. One more subtle factor: penalties. BYU’s 63.7 penalty yards per game (102nd) is a hidden downside; a couple of drive-extending flags are how underdogs hang around. Colorado is better there at 44.5 (36th).
How it likely plays out
On paper, this tilts toward BYU’s trenches. Colorado has improved with Salter, and you can feel the Buffs’ confidence rising after Wyoming. But the specific weakness (run defense) matches up almost too neatly with BYU’s specific strength (downhill run game and clock control). If that holds, Colorado’s offense will be operating from behind the sticks more often than Sanders would like.
A couple of caveats that could swing it:
- BYU red-zone execution. Settle for three instead of seven two or three times and you keep the door open.
- Explosives from Salter. One busted contain or a scramble drill deep shot to Brown can erase ten minutes of BYU “sit on the game” football.
Betting angles
- Side: I make BYU -7.8 on matchup and efficiency, so -6.5 is playable down to -7. There’s always a little queasiness laying points on the road, but BYU’s time-of-possession edge and run-game leverage make covers more likely because they shorten games and limit variance. Pick: BYU -6.5.
- Total: Market is 46.5–47.5. BYU’s defense + clock control plus Colorado’s sub-average possession time point me slightly Under; it’s not a hammer because Salter’s legs create volatility, but at 47 I’d lean Under. Lean: Under 47 (or 46.5 if that’s all you can get).
Projection
BYU 27, Colorado 17 – Cougars cover, total sneaks Under.