BYU vs Iowa State Prediction, Odds & Expert Pick

An unbeaten BYU heads to Ames to face a feisty, home-perfect Iowa State on Saturday afternoon. The market has quietly tilted toward the Cyclones.

Kickoff/TV: 3:30 p.m. ET (2:30 p.m. CT) on FOX at Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA. BYU is 7–0 (4–0 Big 12); Iowa State is 5–2 (2–2). Weather looks seasonably mild.

Where the line sits

Oddsmakers opened Iowa State as a small favorite, and as of mid-week Bookmaker lists ISU -2.5 (-115) with a total of 48.5; BYU sits around +2.5 (-105) and +122 on the moneyline.

Recap

BYU is undefeated and riding momentum after a 24–21 rivalry win over Utah. The Cougars’ last five also include road wins at Colorado and East Carolina and a multi-score win over West Virginia. They’ve earned a top-15 profile in most outlets and even hit No. 11 in some polls this week. Iowa State, meanwhile, started 5–0 but stumbled with tight road losses at Cincinnati and Colorado before a bye still unbeaten at home with wins over Iowa and Arizona. That sets up the classic spot: BYU off an emotional win, ISU at home off rest.

Key players and units to watch

BYU offense:
Transfer QB Bear Bachmeier has been steady and efficient (1,386 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT), leaning on a physical run game led by LJ Martin (774 rushing yards, 4 TD). BYU isn’t just explosive; they’ve been balanced enough to win a 24–21 grinder one week and a 38–24 game the next. That versatility keeps them live in any script.

Iowa State offense:
QB Rocco Becht is pacing for a third straight 3,000-yard type season (1,622 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT) and has added red-zone punch on the ground (7 rushing TD). The biggest news, however, is health: RB Carson Hansen (348 yards) is back to full health after missing time (concussion), joining Abu Sama III (481 yards), who just ripped Colorado for 177 yards. With both backs available, ISU’s run game looks more like the early-season version that kept them unbeaten into October.

Iowa State defense:
Defensive coordinator Jon Heacock still fields a disciplined unit, but attrition in the secondary matters: standout CB Jontez Williams is out for the season and star S Jeremiah Cooper is also done, pushing less-experienced DBs into bigger roles. Additionally, nose guard Domonique Orange is questionable, while coach Matt Campbell sounded optimistic on starting K Kyle Konrardy returning. Against BYU’s downhill run game and play-action shots, those statuses are not trivial.

Betting trends

ATS records (2025): BYU 5–2 ATS; Iowa State 3–3–1 ATS.
Totals (2025): BYU 3–4 O/U; Iowa State 3–4 O/U
Home/Road form: Iowa State is 2–0 at home (wins vs. Iowa, Arizona). BYU is 3–0 on the road (wins at ECU, Colorado, Arizona). Both have traveled/defended home well.

Matchup edges

Cyclones’ run-game rebound vs. BYU’s box counts. With Hansen cleared and Sama rolling, ISU can credibly live in 12 personnel and test BYU’s willingness to keep two safeties high. If BYU walks a safety down, Becht’s play-action intermediate throws (digs/crossers) open up an area where BYU’s corners will be asked to tackle in space. That’s a chain-sustaining, under-friendly script.

BYU explosives vs. a shorthanded ISU secondary. Losing Williams and Cooper strips the Cyclones of two proven playmakers on the back end. BYU doesn’t have to be vertical all day; it just needs two chunk plays to flip this. If Bachmeier hits a couple of shot plays off Martin’s run threat, the Cougars can steal possessions.

Hidden yardage. If Konrardy is indeed back, ISU’s red-zone and long-field decision-making improves. In a game lined under 50 with spreads under a field goal, the difference between a 4th-and-5 decision and a confident 45-yard attempt is real equity.

How I’m betting it

Side: I lean Iowa State -2.5. The bye, the home edge, and key returns (Hansen and likely Konrardy) are meaningful in a physical game. The market shading ISU despite analytics leaning BYU suggests power-rating upgrades off the bye and venue are driving this — and I’m willing to ride that, particularly while the number stays below 3. Yes, the Cyclones’ secondary injuries are a concern, but BYU’s offense leans run-first and efficiency more than relentless downfield shots; ISU can live with that trade if the front holds up.

Total: Under 48.5 Both teams trend slightly under on the year, and the most likely script is run-heavy on both sides, with clock churn and red-zone field goals deciding things. If you prefer a live angle, look for a fast first quarter to nudge the live total into the low-50s and buy back under.

Projected score: Iowa State 24, BYU 20. That covers -2.5 and slides under most posted totals. It also maps cleanly to both teams’ 2025 scoring profiles and the Cyclones’ home-field