California vs San Diego State Pick, Prediction & Odds

California faces San Diego State on September 20, 2025, at Snapdragon Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 10:30 PM EDT. California is heavily favored, entering the game undefeated at 3-0, while San Diego State sits at 1-1 and comes off a road loss.

Game Details and Broadcast

Date & Time: September 20, 2025, 10:30 PM EDT
Location: Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA
TV: CBS Sports Network

Odds and Betting Information

Spread: California -13.5
Over/Under: 47

Notable Betting Trends

California has covered the spread as a road favorite in four straight September games, and has won nine straight September games as favorites.
San Diego State has covered eight of its last 13 games as a double-digit underdog, provides more stability at home, but has lost seven of its last eight overall.
Five straight matchups between these teams went under the total, though San Diego State’s games as an underdog tend to push over.
California is 2-1 ATS this season; 2-0 ATS as a favorite but has not covered when the spread is 12+ points.
San Diego State is 1-1 ATS this year; they have covered in three of their last five home games, and as a double-digit underdog have an historical ATS edge.

Recaps

Cal is off to a perfect 3–0 start after beating Minnesota 27–14 last weekend. True-freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele turned in a poised performance (279 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT) to guide the Bears, who mixed efficient early down passing with timely stops and a takeaway on special teams.

San Diego State had an open date last week and last played Sept. 6, falling 36–13 at Washington State. The Aztecs struck first but were largely bottled up after the opening drive, with QB Jayden Denegal limited through the air as WSU pulled away. SDSU’s season opened with a 42–0 win over Stony Brook.

There’s a quirky bit of series history: Cal leads 5–4, and every meeting has been won by the home team. Last season in Berkeley, Cal won 31–10; the last time the game was in San Diego (2016), SDSU won 45–40. Saturday will be Cal’s first trip to Snapdragon.

Team leaders

California

QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele: 780 pass yds, 6 TD, 1 INT
RB Kendrick Raphael: 201 rush yds, 1 TD
WR Trond Grizzell: 175 rec yds
LB Luke Ferrelli: 27 tackles
DB Hezekiah Masses: 3 INT
Team profile: 32.0 ppg scored / 10.7 ppg allowed; ~269 pass ypg.

San Diego State

QB Jayden Denegal: 340 pass yds, 2 TD
RB Lucky Sutton: 188 rush yds, 2 TD
WR Jacob Bostick: 101 rec yds, 2 TD
Team profile: 28.5 ppg scored / 18.0 ppg allowed; ~184.5 pass ypg.

Matchup edges that matter

When Cal has the ball

Cal’s identity has shifted toward an explosive, quarterback-led passing game. Sagapolutele has shown a veteran’s pocket calm and is distributing efficiently to Grizzell and a deep skill group, while the ground game with Raphael and Brandon High Jr. keeps defenses honest. The rookie’s early-season mistake rate has been low (6:1 TD:INT), and Cal’s scoring average north of 30 aligns with what the tape shows: quick, on-schedule throws that set up vertical shots.

SDSU’s task is to squeeze those windows and win third down. The Aztecs have historically leaned on physical fronts and disciplined coverage, and one data feed this week highlighted a strong early third-down defensive rate (opponents ~21%). If that holds, it’s the lever that can lengthen Cal’s drives and force field goals.

When SDSU has the ball

Under Sean Lewis, SDSU wants to play faster, but the Aztecs haven’t consistently hit explosives. Denegal flashed with a fourth-down TD at WSU and has chemistry with Jacob Bostick, while Lucky Sutton gives them a downhill answer to stay on schedule. The problem in Pullman was sustaining drives SDSU managed only sporadic chunk plays and couldn’t keep pace after the first quarter. That’s a concern against a Cal defense allowing 10.7 ppg and featuring a true ball-hawk in Hezekiah Masses (3 INT).

Betting Pick & Prediction

Spread (-13.5): Power numbers favor Cal by double digits and the matchup is friendly to the Bears’ passing game. If Sagapolutele continues to protect the ball and Cal avoids long-yardage penalties, they’re equipped to finish drives against an Aztecs defense that is stout situationally but spent long stretches defending short fields in Pullman. The home/series trend is the one counterweight but trends don’t tackle.

Total (47): This sits right on the hinge of the handicap. Cal’s defense has been stingy (10.7 ppg allowed), and SDSU’s offense is still searching for rhythm against top-level athletes; the bye and home crowd help, but sustained scoring drives are the question. Weather is benign, night conditions are standard at Snapdragon, and pace shouldn’t be breakneck. My numbers lean Under unless you’re catching a sudden drop to 46 (at which point variance in explosive plays starts to matter more).

The pick

Cal is the more complete team right now better QB play, more ways to create explosives, and a defense that’s finishing series. SDSU’s rest and the home-field trend are real variables, but they likely aren’t enough to bridge the gap in passing efficiency unless the Aztecs pop multiple chunk plays or steal possessions with special teams.

Pick: Cal -13.5. Lean: Under 47.5.
Projected score: Cal 31, San Diego State 13.