Colorado State vs Wyoming Prediction, Odds & Expert Pick

The 117th Border War kicks at 7:30 p.m. ET (5:30 MT) on Saturday, Oct. 25, from War Memorial Stadium in Laramie, live on CBSSN. Books are dealing Wyoming around -4.5 with a total of 47.5.

Colorado State (2–5, 1–2 MWC) at Wyoming (3–4, 1–2): it’s the Bronze Boot, the altitude, and a pair of teams that have flashed… then frustrated. Wyoming’s been choppy but sturdy at home; CSU has swung wildly from one of the season’s better upsets to a deflating loss a week later. If you’re betting this game, the handicap may come down to who handles pressure downs and field position better in thin air.

Matchup

Colorado State’s past two weeks capture their volatility: a statement 49–21 demolition of ranked Fresno State, keyed by seven forced turnovers and five sacks, followed by a 31–19 home loss to Hawai‘i in which the offense stalled late. The Fresno win hinted at the ceiling; the Hawai‘i loss reminded us about the floor.

Wyoming’s most recent barometer game came four weeks ago in Boulder, a 37–20 loss to Colorado where the Cowboys’ offense sputtered and a late rally fizzled. Earlier, they opened with a defense-first 10–0 shutout of Akron.

CSU leads the all-time series 60–51–5, but Wyoming is 7–3 in the last 10 meetings and holds a 31–26 edge since the Bronze Boot trophy debuted in 1968. That recent-decade tilt toward the Pokes dovetails with Wyoming’s home identity: slow the game, win field position, suffocate drives.

How these teams actually win on Saturday

Colorado State path: protect Brousseau long enough to get intermediate shots to Winfield and friends, keep Dupree involved on early downs, and avoid the turnover avalanche that sank Fresno (in CSU’s favor) and then boomeranged on them against Hawai‘i. If CSU gets to 24+, they’re in business; the Rams’ ceiling games have a little tempo and chunk yards.

Wyoming path: feed Harris and the ground game, leverage Anderson’s arm selectively, and let the defense play the game on a short field. The Pokes’ best wins look like 20–17 grinders where special teams matter and opponents go 2-for-12 on third down. Their 10–0 opener is the archetype even if CSU’s offense is better than Akron’s, the blueprint stands.

Betting trends you can actually use

Totals splits: Each of CSU’s last 4 road games has gone OVER the total. Five of Wyoming’s last 6 home games have gone UNDER.
Series recent form: Wyoming is 7–3 in the last 10 Border Wars. Trophy era: Cowboys lead 31–26 since 1968.
All-time: CSU leads the series 60–51–5

Matchup edges

Wyoming’s defensive leverage vs. CSU protection. CSU’s pass pro has been up-and-down; when Brousseau gets time, he’s efficient, but hurried throws led to drive-ending stalls vs. Hawai‘i. Wyoming’s front isn’t elite, yet it’s disruptive enough at home to move the launch point and force third-and-long. That’s where the Pokes feast.

Explosives vs. explosives allowed. CSU just authored a turnover-driven avalanche against Fresno; that game script isn’t replicable every week. Wyoming, meanwhile, surrendered big plays at Colorado but otherwise keeps a lid on things in Laramie. The altitude taxes visiting offenses late; that’s a real-world edge when a game tightens in the fourth quarter.

Red-zone & third-down script. This is where the total will be decided. CSU needs touchdowns, not chip-shot field goals; Wyoming’s content to make you snap it again and again. If the first quarter closes 3–3 or 7–3, under backers are live and the spread tilts toward the home side’s style.

Pick

Wyoming -4.5 (playable to -5) and Under 47.5 lean. Projected score: Wyoming 24, Colorado State 17.

Why that lane? The matchup leans toward Wyoming’s ability to squeeze possessions, win special teams, and make Brousseau settle for underneath throws especially in Laramie. CSU’s ceiling is real (see: Fresno), but it was turnover-aided; in a more neutral script a week later, the Rams mustered 19 at home versus Hawai‘i. On a short week of travel and against a defense more comfortable in its building, their margin for error shrinks. Combine that with Wyoming’s home-under trend and the Pokes’ series-recent edge, and laying less than a touchdown is reasonable. The total is trickier CSU’s road OVER run is a nudge the other way but Wyoming’s preferred pace wins out enough to keep me under the market number in the low-40s.