FIU vs Missouri State Prediction & Odds (Nov. 1, 2025)

Florida International (3–4, 1–2 CUSA) travels to Springfield to face Missouri State (4–3, 2–1 CUSA) under the CBS Sports Network lights. Books have installed the Bears as short home favorites in a game with a modest total around 50–51.5. Kickoff is 8 p.m. ET at Robert W. Plaster Stadium, with temps around the high 40s forecast at kickoff.

Matchup

Most Sportsbooks and consensus sites list Missouri State -3.5 with a moneyline near -175 (FIU around +150) and a total sitting 50.5 as of Tuesday.

Form-wise, these teams are heading in opposite emotional directions. FIU just got thumped 45–26 at home by Kennesaw State, while Missouri State is coming off a composed 24–17 road win over New Mexico State. The résumé lines aren’t glamorous, but the Bears have banked a couple of CUSA wins already and have been a touch steadier against the number.

Team profiles and key numbers

Missouri State offense vs. FIU defense. The Bears are quietly a pass-first outfit: 267.1 passing yards per game (top-40 nationally), but just 106.3 on the ground (bottom 10), averaging 22.0 points. FIU’s defense is leaky overall (422.4 ypg allowed), especially through the air (269.7 ypg), and concedes 30.1 points per game. The raw yardage matchup tilts toward Missouri State’s passing game if they protect the ball.

Quarterback watch matters a bit here. Veteran Jacob Clark shows as the statistical leader (1,478 yards, 11 TD, 8 INT, 64.8%), and he delivered 283 yards and 3 TDs in last week’s win over NMSU. Earlier in October, true freshman Deuce Bailey stepped in and helped the Bears snag their first-ever CUSA win, so depth exists if needed. Practically, the most recent game and ESPN’s team leaders suggest Clark is back in the saddle.

FIU offense vs. Missouri State defense. FIU’s identity is different: the Panthers run it well (190.6 ypg, top-40) and play ball-control they rank 13th nationally in time of possession (32:49). RB Kejon Owens has been the engine (809 yards, 7 TD), and QB Keyone Jenkins is more caretaker than fireworks (1,255 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT). Missouri State’s defense is average-to-shaky by the numbers (379.7 ypg allowed; 238.4 passing, 141.3 rushing; 27.9 ppg), but better against the run than the pass on a per-rank basis. That makes this a strength-on-strength test when FIU leans on Owens.

Situational edges. Discipline and money-downs are subtle tells. Missouri State’s third-down offense lags (29.0% – 133rd), and the Bears rack up penalties (75.7 penalty yards per game 131st). FIU’s red-zone defense has quietly been a bright spot (31st), which can turn drives into field goals. Cold-ish night air and a road environment for a run-first team suggest a tighter, lower-variance pace… unless turnovers intrude.

How it likely plays

If Missouri State stays on schedule early-down efficiency via the short and intermediate pass the Bears can avoid third-and-long and minimize their third-down weakness. FIU’s path is obvious: dominate possession with Owens, lean on its top-15 time-of-possession profile, and make this a 10-possession game. That said, FIU’s pass defense metrics are concerning against this specific opponent, especially on the road and in colder weather than South Florida kids are used to in late October.

The red-zone battle might decide it. Missouri State’s red-zone offense is fine, not great; FIU’s red-zone defense has been legitimately good. That creates a live undercurrent for the total if both teams are settling Bears for field goals, Panthers for punts. But turnovers cut both ways: Clark’s 8 INT on the year imply some risk; Jenkins has been conservative, which could limit FIU’s explosive upside if they fall behind and must throw into Missouri State’s more comfortable coverage looks.

Picks

Pick: Missouri State -3.5 (lean Under 50.5 if you can shop the high end of the market).

Why lay the hook? Three things stack up:

Matchup leverage – Bears’ top-40 passing volume meets FIU’s bottom-5ish pass yardage defense. That’s the cleanest on-paper edge in the game.
Recent form & setting – Missouri State has banked wins in similar midweek spots and handled a road test last week; now they get their shot at home in cool weather. FIU’s defense just allowed 45 at home to Kennesaw State, which doesn’t scream road-ready.
Market alignment – The number sitting 3.5 across books with modest Bears support suggests there’s no hidden injury dragging this lower; our numbers make it closer to MSU -4.5/-5 on a neutral read.

Projected score: Missouri State 27, FIU 20. That lands beneath the current 50.5 window more often than not, particularly if FIU’s red-zone defense holds and the Bears’ third-down inefficiency shows up. But if turnovers flip short fields, the Over is the first thing that breaks so size Under accordingly.