Florida State at Virginia Betting Preview Sept. 26, 2025 | Odds, Picks, and Key Matchup Breakdown for Seminoles vs Cavaliers in ACC Play – Spread, Moneyline, Totals, and Expert Prediction

Florida State faces Virginia in a key ACC matchup on September 26, 2025, at Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, with kickoff set for 7:00 PM ET. The Seminoles are ranked No. 8 nationally and enter the game as 7-point favorites, looking to continue their undefeated run against a Cavaliers team that’s won two straight. Florida State stands at 3-0, coming off a blowout win over Kent State, while Virginia (3-1, 1-0 ACC) recently posted an impressive victory against Stanford. Historically, Florida State leads the series 15-4, but Virginia has won two of the past three encounters. Weather is forecast at 73°F and dry for Friday night.

Betting Lines & Trends

Spread: Florida State -7 to -7.5; Virginia +7 to +7.5 across offshore sportsbooks.
Moneyline: Florida State near -250 to -308; Virginia +205 to +244.
Total (O/U): 57.5-58; slightly juiced to the over on some books.
Public Bets: Heavier action on Florida State to win and cover, but significant interest in the Over as well.
FSU Trends:
- 4-1 straight up (SU) last five games.
- 5-11 SU in its last 16 overall; but 3-0 ATS this year, 3-0 to the Over.
Virginia Trends:
- 3-1 in last four games both SU and ATS.
- 5-2 ATS at home in their last seven.
- 5-0 to the Over in last five overall and 3-0 Over at home.

Matchup snapshot

Florida State (3-0)
The Seminoles look night-and-day from last fall. They opened with a 31–17 upset of then-No. 8 Alabama, pounded East Texas A&M 77–3, and then set a school record with 498 rushing yards in a 66–10 demolition of Kent State. They’ve scored 58.0 points per game (3rd nationally), run for 363.0 yards per game (2nd), and allowed just 10.0 ppg through three outings. That blend of power run game and stingy defense travels.

Quarterback Tommy Castellanos has been efficient (594 passing yards, 3 TD, 1 INT), and the skill talent is spreading out: Duce Robinson leads with 199 receiving yards on 8 grabs (2 TD). The burst name to know is Micahi Danzy, who was just named ACC Rookie of the Week after lighting up Kent State with explosive plays; he currently leads FSU in rushing (173 yards on only five carries) and has 126 receiving yards on just four catches.

Defensively, Earl Little Jr. leads with 15 tackles, while Jerry Wilson has two picks. It’s early, but the structure has held up against both Alabama and two overmatched opponents.

Virginia (3-1, 1-0 ACC)
Tony Elliott’s group has quietly built a live offense. After a 48–7 romp over Coastal and a narrow 35–31 road loss at NC State, the Cavaliers hammered William & Mary 55–16 and blasted Stanford 48–20 on Saturday to open league play at 1–0.

TCU transfer Chandler Morris has settled in fast: 1,050 passing yards, 8 TD, 1 INT through four games. Trell Harris has been a handful (321 receiving yards, 3 TD) and just strung together a ridiculous first quarter versus Stanford three TDs on three catches to set the tone. On the ground, J’Mari Taylor (298 yards, 6 TD) gives them balance. UVA is averaging 313.0 passing and 251.5 rushing yards per game (45.5 ppg overall), so this is not a one-trick offense.

Defensively, the headline from the Stanford win was the return of linebacker Kam Robinson, who led UVA with seven tackles and helped hold Stanford to 35 rushing yards a notable step forward after the NC State shootout. Depth chart leaders include Landon Danley (20 tackles) and Daniel Rickert (2.5 sacks).

Key edges

1) FSU’s run game vs. UVA’s improved front
FSU just set a school record on the ground and is sitting No. 2 nationally in rushing offense. The rotation is deeper than one back Gavin Sawchuk, Samuel Singleton Jr., and even Castellanos add volume and QB run threat—but the explosives from Danzy and Duce Robinson’s downfield presence force safeties to stress vertically and horizontally. UVA’s front looked fast and organized with Kam Robinson back, yet the jump from Stanford’s struggling offense to this scheme (with option looks and tempo) is steep. If FSU is living in 2nd-and-4, it erodes UVA’s ability to bring pressure.

2) Virginia’s passing game vs. FSU’s back seven
Morris has been on time and aggressive. Harris can win one-on-one, while Cam Ross and Jahmal Edrine provide reliable volume. This is the best passing game FSU has seen since Week 1. The Noles’ corners and nickels haven’t been stressed much the last two weeks; Earl Little Jr. and co. will need to tackle in space to get off the field on 3rd-and-medium. ESPN’s matchup model still likes FSU (about 60% to win), but that’s hardly a blowout projection and reflects respect for UVA’s offense.

3) Pace and game state
FSU can score in chunks, but they’re also happy to grind and shorten the second half with that run game (see: Kent State eight rushing TDs). UVA has shown they can play faster (three straight games over 500 total yards per local coverage), yet the Cavaliers’ best shot is probably sustained drives that keep Castellanos on the sideline. If the FSU front limits early UVA rushing success and forces longer 3rd downs, the clock could leak and lean the total a tick lower than the market.

4) Recent form and injuries/depth
FSU is healthy enough that its depth chart didn’t show major changes this week, with a few previously nicked contributors (TE Randy Pittman, LB Caleb LaVelle, DL Kevin Wynn) included. UVA’s defensive spark from Kam Robinson’s return is real, but they’ll need that level again and then some against a top-5 caliber rushing attack.

Betting pick

I like Florida State -7.5 and lean Under 58.5.

Why the side? FSU’s offensive identity run first, explosive second matches up well with Virginia. The Seminoles can win the line of scrimmage and keep Morris chasing. When Alabama tried to sit in two-high and rally, FSU still found answers; and if you overcommit to the box, Castellanos’ RPO and play-action game can punish you over the top to Robinson. UVA’s offense is legit, but this is a step up in speed and depth on both sides of the ball compared with their first four opponents. A clean FSU special-teams/turnover game should be enough to get margin.

Why the total? The number in most places sits 57.5–58.5. Both teams score, sure but FSU’s preferred script leans run-heavy, which bleeds clock once they’re ahead. UVA will hit some chunk throws, yet the Cavs may struggle to finish enough drives with sevens against an FSU defense allowing just 10.0 ppg. My projection spits out something like FSU 34, UVA 24 (58), which is right at the number; if you can still find 58.5, my lean is Under. If the market drops to 57 or lower, I’d back off the total and just ride the side.

Suggested plays

FSU -7.5 (-105 to -115) – I’d play it to -7.5; at -7 with reasonable juice, even better.
Under 58.5 (lean) – Prefer 58.5; pass if it sinks to 57 or lower.