Houston vs Oregon State Betting Preview Sept. 26, 2025 | Cougars Aim to Stay Perfect Against Winless Beavers – Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Team Trends, and Expert Prediction for Friday Night College Football

The Houston Cougars face the Oregon State Beavers on Friday, September 26, 2025, at Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon, with a 10:30 PM ET kickoff. Houston is heavily favored in this matchup.

Game Overview

Teams: Houston Cougars (3-0) at Oregon State Beavers (0-4)
Date/Time: Friday, September 26, 2025, 10:30 PM ET
Location: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR.
Broadcast: ESPN.

Team Trends and Betting Insights

Houston:
- 6-3-1 ATS (against the spread) in their last 10 games; on a 3-game ATS win streak.
- 4-1 ATS in its last 5; 6-3 ATS in last 9 road games.
- 6-4 straight up (SU) in last 10; on a 3-game SU win streak.
- 4-6 O/U (Over/Under) in last 10; but 2 straight OVERs entering this week.
Oregon State:
- 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games; 4 consecutive ATS losses.
- 0-4 ATS this season, as well as 0-4 overall (SU); 5-game SU losing streak.
- 4-6 O/U in last 10; 2 consecutive UNDERS.
- 2-10 ATS in last 12 overall; 2-9 ATS in last 11 home games.

Recent results

Houston (3–0, 1–0 Big 12). The Cougars have stacked three convincing wins: 27–0 over Stephen F. Austin, 35–9 at Rice, and 36–20 over Colorado in their Big 12 opener on Sept. 12. They were idle on Sept. 20, so they travel west with extra rest. By the scoreboard, that’s 32.7 points per game on offense and 9.7 allowed. Quarterback Conner Weigman has been clean and efficient (569 pass yards, 4 TD, 0 INT), Dean Connors paces the ground game (271 yards, 3 TD), and Stephon Johnson has been the downfield punch (191 receiving yards at 31.8 per catch). Kicker Ethan Sanchez hit 5 FGs (long 52) vs. Colorado.

There is a caveat up front: left tackle David Ndukwe suffered a season-ending knee injury in that Colorado win. Houston shuffled pieces mid-game and then had the bye to reset; reports suggest a couple of linemen could return soon, but Ndukwe is out. The OL depth is the one nagging concern entering Corvallis.

Oregon State (0–4). The Beavers’ September has been a gauntlet: losses to Cal (34–15), Fresno State (36–27), at Texas Tech (45–14) and at Oregon (41–7). That’s 15.8 points per game on offense and 39.0 allowed. Maalik Murphy has flashed arm talent (964 pass yards, 6 TD) but also turnovers (5 INT), while Anthony Hankerson leads the ground game (228 rush yards) and Trent Walker leads receivers (302 yards). On the back end, DB Tyrice Ivy has been ruled out for the season, and projected contributor D. Clemons (WR) is also out with an Achilles injury.

Matchup keys

1) Rest and readiness. Houston had last weekend off; Oregon State just got thumped in Eugene and turns around on a six-day week. That extra time matters when you’re patching an offensive line and flying two time zones. It’s a small edge, but it’s real.

2) Turnover profile. Houston’s first three games were clean zero offensive and have the Cougars among the nation’s early leaders in turnover margin. Oregon State, meanwhile, has struggled protecting the ball against quality fronts, and the Ducks in particular forced Murphy into hurried decisions. If that pattern holds even moderately, short fields tilt things toward the road favorite.

3) Trench stress vs. OSU’s defense. Even with the Ndukwe loss, Houston’s run game hasn’t been one-dimensional. Weigman’s legs mattered against Colorado, and Connors/Sneed give them a steady floor. Oregon State has been leaky against balanced attacks and is thin in the secondary after the Ivy news. If Houston can avoid obvious passing downs, Fritz’s offense should stay on schedule.

4) Explosives and finishing drives. The Beavers’ defense has given up crooked numbers, but there’s a version of this game where they force field goals which is at least helpful when you’re catching 12 or 13. The flip side: Sanchez is dialed in from distance, so “stalled” Houston drives can still net three. That shrinks comeback windows for an offense averaging under 16 per game.

5) Coaching and identity. Year 2 for Willie Fritz in Houston looks noticeably more coherent transfer QB, more OL depth (even with injuries), plus a special-teams edge. Trent Bray is trying to steady a roster in transition, and the early slate hasn’t cut him any slack.

Betting odds (as of Sept. 22)

Spread: Houston -12.5 – 13.
Total: 48
Moneyline: Houston ~-455 / Oregon State ~+350.

The handicap

On paper, this is a classic “good team off a bye vs. struggling side on short rest” spot. Houston’s defense has been stingy, the offense is balanced enough to travel, and special teams are bankable. The offensive line attrition is the one speed bump; it raises the chances of a few stalled red-zone trips. Oregon State’s path is narrow but not imaginary: win the turnover battle for the first time this year, generate a couple of explosives to Walker/Reddicks, and bait Houston into third-and-long where the reshuffled tackles can be stressed.

The problem is sustaining that for 60 minutes. The Beavers have been outclassed up front by every opponent so far and now face another defense that compresses space and tackles well. Houston’s turnover avoidance + field-goal floor is a tough combo to upset as a double-digit dog especially when OSU’s own defense has injuries on the back end.

Pick

Against the spread: Houston -12.5 (playable to -13). The rest advantage, turnover profile, and OSU’s offensive inefficiency point the same direction. A 27–10 or 31–13 type script shows up often enough for me to lay it.
Total: Under 48.5 lean. Houston’s defense plus the Cougars’ willingness to take three (Sanchez’s leg) nudges this toward the low-to-mid-40s more than a true shootout. If you prefer correlation, a small HOU -12.5 & Under same-game parlay is coherent; if you’re worried about garbage-time variance, stick to the side.

Projected score: Houston 31, Oregon State 13.