Iowa State (5-1) will travel to Boulder to take on Colorado (2-4) on Saturday, October 11, 2025, at Folsom Field, with kickoff slated for 3:30 p.m. ET. The Cyclones are currently listed as 3-point favorites over the Buffaloes, with the total posted at 52 points.

Records & recent: Iowa State is 5–1 (2–1 Big 12) off a 38–30 loss at Cincinnati. Colorado is 2–4 (0–3 Big 12) after a 35–21 loss at TCU.

Weather note: Saturday looks upper-60s with a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm in spots. That’s a mild cross-wind/precip risk, not a slam-dunk under by itself, but it’s worth monitoring if you’re playing totals or kicking props.

Quick Team Previews

Iowa State offense / defense snapshot

QB Rocco Becht has been efficient: 1,417 yards, 9 TD, 2 INT; QBR ~72 through six games. ISU is averaging 31.3 ppg and allowing 18.2 ppg.
Skill leaders: RB Carson Hansen 348 rush yds, WR Brett Eskildsen 321 rec yds lead the way; DB Marcus Neal Jr. 39 tackles paces the defense.
Availability: Starting kicker Kyle Konrardy is out again, which has nudged Matt Campbell toward more fourth-down aggression and two-point calculus. RB Carson Hansen is officially questionable per this week’s local reporting.

Colorado offense / defense snapshot

QB Kaidon Salter (Liberty transfer) brings dual-threat juice: 901 pass yds, 7 TD, 4 INT; he’s also been a factor as a runner. RB Micah Welch (250 rush yds) and WR Omarion Miller (289 rec yds) headline the supporting cast. Team scoring sits around 25.0 ppg for / 24.8 ppg against.
Coach factor: Deion Sanders underwent a mid-week blood-clot procedure but returned to practice and says he’ll coach Saturday. It’s a human story first, but from a handicapping angle it introduces some week-of volatility.
Injuries: CU’s initial injury report this week was long (multiple OUT/QUESTIONABLE designations surfaced on the beat). Treat final status as day-to-day, but depth is being tested.

Recap

Iowa State’s profile is quietly balanced: top-third efficiency through the air with Becht, a committee run game, and a defense that’s generally handled business—Cincinnati hit them for explosives early, but ISU still limited season opponents to 18.2 ppg overall. That travels, especially to altitude when the opponent’s OL and depth are in flux.

Colorado’s offense has shown spikes (37 on Wyoming, 21 in a near-miss vs. BYU), but protection and down-to-down consistency have wobbled against better fronts. Salter can create, yet drives have stalled in the low-red and on third down when the run game isn’t ahead of the chains. With the Buffs’ availability list lengthy and their coach just off a procedure, it feels like a “grind” script rather than a track meet—particularly if that pop-up Front Range thunder limits kicking/wide-open tempo in the second half.

One more hinge point: special teams. With Konrardy out, Iowa State has leaned conservative on long FGs and more aggressive on 4th-and-short. That can trim some field-goal attempts off the scoreboard (helping unders) while not materially hurting ISU’s win equity as a small favorite.

Game Pick

Pick: Iowa State -3 (play to -3.5); lean Under 52.

On paper, the Cyclones’ defense + QB efficiency combo is the cleanest edge in this matchup. Becht has limited mistakes (only 2 INT in 168 attempts) and ISU’s defense has allowed <20 ppg on the full-season body of work. That travels. Meanwhile, Colorado’s offense has been uneven against Power-level fronts, and the Buffs’ injury/availability picture plus Deion’s mid-week medical detour add uncertainty to an already thin margin game. Add in a weather blip (chance of an afternoon storm) and ISU’s own kicking limitations nudging drives toward 4th-down tries, and the Under 52 starts to make sense unless the market crashes lower. My projected score: Iowa State 27, Colorado 20.