Tuesday night’s Conference USA matchup features the Liberty Flames hosting the New Mexico State Aggies in Lynchburg. Liberty enters the game as a 10.5-point favorite with the total set around 46.5, according to the latest odds. Both teams are fighting for positioning in the C-USA standings Liberty looking to rebound after early inconsistency, while New Mexico State aims to build on last week’s strong performance against Sam Houston. This preview breaks down the latest stats, betting trends, and matchup details to help bettors make an informed play on the game.

Game Info & Market

• Kickoff: 7:00 PM ET (CBS Sports Network)
• Location: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, Virginia
• Current lines from Bookmaker.eu:
   • Spread: Liberty –10.5
   • Total (O/U): 46.5
   • Moneyline: Liberty approx. –370 to –400 / NMSU +295 to +325

Game Preview

New Mexico State comes in at 3–2 (1–1 C-USA) off a comfortable 37–10 win over Sam Houston where the defense slammed the door late and the offense finally stacked some explosives. Logan Fife threw for 255 and a TD, WR TK King flashed in his debut (132 yards), and safety Naeten Mitchell housed a 71-yard pick to turn a tight game into a blowout. It was their most lopsided FBS win since 2022 and a much-needed momentum jolt.

Liberty sits at 2–4 (0–1), still searching for consistent offense in Year 3 of its C-USA life. Even so, previews around the league keep circling the same theme: the Flames’ defense particularly in the red zone has been the unit to trust while the offense works through growing pains.

Matchup edges (units & stats)

The headline stat on the Aggies is a stark run-game problem. Through five games they’re averaging just 50.8 rushing yards per game (1.9 yards per carry). That’s not a typo; it’s been that rough in short yardage and on standard downs, which forces Fife into obvious passing situations. Team pages and the school stat site back up both the volume and the efficiency issues.

New Mexico State’s passing game, by contrast, is the working engine: Fife is the team’s leader (1,272 pass yards), with TE/WR Donovan Faupel (312 receiving yards) functioning as a reliable chain-mover. Still, this is more “competent quick game” than “vertical air raid,” and the lack of a rushing floor creates volatility.

Liberty’s offense has been choppy, but the unit doesn’t need to be fireworks to cover spreads when the defense compresses the field. The Flames are averaging 17.3 points per game in C-USA play (conference stat pack), which underscores why totals on Liberty games have been pinned in the mid-40s. Quarterback Ethan Vasko is the statistical leader (1,006 pass yards), RB Evan Dickens paces the run game, and Donte Lee Jr. has been the top target. Expect Liberty to lean on field position, a measured run game, and play-action shots rather than a tempo fest.

Series-wise, Liberty has had the better of this pairing 6–2 all-time and a 30–24 win last season though these squads are different year to year. Still, that context matters when handicapping coaching prep and familiarity.

How it likely plays out

If you’re backing the dog, you’re basically betting on Fife and the Aggies’ short passing to stay ahead of schedule and avoid third-and-longs. The problem: without a credible run threat, Liberty can sit on intermediate windows and heat up obvious pass downs. That’s where the Flames’ defense has looked best—shrinking the red zone and forcing field goals. A low-explosive Liberty offense means the back door is technically open late, but the game script skews toward Liberty playing from in front.

On the flip side, Liberty’s offense doesn’t have to get to 30 to cover. Against an Aggies team allowing 152.6 opponent rush yds/g (and dealing with a thin front seven snap-to-snap), 24–27 points can be enough if the Flames win the field-position and special-teams battle. Expect a patient game plan: condensed formations, safe throws for Vasko, and a lot of Dickens.

Totals are tricky. Yes, Liberty’s games trend toward the mid-40s, and the conference scoring data supports that. But NMSU’s defense has been plucky, and their offense toggles between competent and stalled depending on protection. The most reasonable outcome lands near the number think mid-to-high 40s with Liberty dictating tempo.

Pick & Best Bets

Pick: Liberty -10 (-110)
I make this closer to Liberty -12.5 on base numbers and matchup penalties (NMSU rush rate/efficiency). Liberty’s defense + home field + NMSU’s one-dimensionality nudges this above the key band at 10. If your book is hanging -10 flat, that’s the buy point; -10.5 is still fine but slightly less attractive.

Lean: Under 46.5 (-110)
Not a full play call it a lean. Liberty’s scoring profile (17.3 ppg) pulls the mean down, and NMSU’s run game issues cap drive sustainability. If this dips to 45, I’d pass; at 46.5, the math says tiny edge under.

Same-game angle (sprinkle only): Liberty to win + Under 52.5 (alt) parlay.
If you like correlating the game script Liberty in control, fewer possessions

Projected score: Liberty 27, New Mexico State 16.
That’s Liberty covering and a result threading just under the market total.