Louisville (4–1, 1–1 ACC) heads to Hard Rock Stadium to face No. 2 Miami (5–0, 1–0) in a prime-time tilt with big ACC and College Football Playoff implications. The market is bullish on the Canes and it’s not hard to see why.

Odds

Spread: Miami -13.5
Total: 50.5

Recaps

Miami climbed to No. 2 nationally at 5–0 and has been a profitable team against the spread (4–1 ATS). The Canes are winning with balance: a top-tier scoring defense (13.6 ppg allowed, best in the ACC) and an offense humming at 35.0 ppg. Quarterback Carson Beck yes, the Georgia transfer has been sharp: 1,213 passing yards, 11 TD, 3 INT through five games (73% completions), with a passer rating around 168.5. He’s squarely in Heisman chatter this week.

Louisville is 4–1 (1–1 ACC), but the Cards limp into this after a 30–27 overtime loss at Virginia and an offense that’s sputtered at key moments. USC transfer Miller Moss has stacked volume (1,358 yards) but more modest efficiency (7 TD, 4 INT; 7.6 YPA), and he’s taken some negative plays behind an inconsistent run game. Still, the Cards are scoring 36.0 ppg and defending well (21.0 ppg allowed) this isn’t a soft opponent.

Miami is 5–0 and has completed the “tough part” of its early slate without tripping up. The bye appeared to arrive at a good time; local reports this week note the Canes trending healthier as they prep for Louisville.
Louisville is 4–1 with an OT loss at Virginia, then a bye. The Cards’ defense looked the part in Charlottesville, but offensive timing and protection were shaky.

Key players & matchups

Miami offense vs. Louisville defense

Carson Beck (QB, Miami): 1,213 yards / 11 TD / 3 INT, 73% completions through five. He’s been efficient on schedule and accurate to all levels. If Miami protects, his intermediate game is a problem for any zone look.
Louisville pass defense: The Cards have speed and create negative plays, something even Mario Cristobal highlighted this week. Louisville’s defensive structure has kept them in games while the offense stalls.

Louisville offense vs. Miami defense

Miller Moss (QB, Louisville): 1,358 yards, 7 TD, 4 INT; flashes of high-end anticipation but pressure and stalled run threat have forced longer down-and-distance. In the Virginia loss, Louisville managed only 5.11 yards per play and the offense’s inconsistency was the story.
Isaac Brown (RB, Louisville): Team rushing leader (334 yards). Louisville needs him healthy and productive to keep Beck on the sideline; recent lower-leg dings among Louisville backs have been a talking point.
Miami defense: Best scoring defense in the ACC (13.6 ppg allowed). TeamRankings also pegs the Canes top-20 nationally in yards allowed per game (297.8). This unit has been the real separator so far.

Quarterback edge: Beck’s efficiency (8.7 YPA, 73% completions) vs. Moss’s heavier usage and lower per-throw pop give Miami the nod. In a game where explosive plays may be scarce, the QB who avoids the one big mistake matters again pointing to Beck.

How it likely plays out

On paper, this is the ACC’s best defense (Miami) against a Louisville offense that can score but hasn’t consistently protected its quarterback or stayed ahead of the chains. The Hurricanes have paired a clean, on-schedule offense with a defense that suffocates red-zone trips and limits explosives. Louisville’s path to the upset likely requires two of three: (1) hit shot plays off play-action to Chris Bell and the outside receivers, (2) win early downs with Isaac Brown to avoid third-and-long vs. Miami pressure, and (3) steal a possession on special teams or with an aggressive fourth-down script. If any of those don’t materialize, Beck’s efficiency becomes the difference.

Miami has also been trustworthy relative to price; 4–1 ATS teams laying two touchdowns this deep into October aren’t automatic fades when their defense is driving the bus. Meanwhile, Louisville’s 1–4 ATS profile captures the volatility you feel watching them capable of long stretches of stalled offense and the occasional turnover that flips field position. That’s dicey against a methodical favorite.

Projected game script: Miami leans on defense and a measured passing game RPO slants, intermediate digs, and backs/TEs in the check-down game to build a working margin by halftime. Louisville lands a couple of counters once Brohm dials up tempo, but sustained drives are hard to come by. The Cards probably need short fields to push this into a full shootout, and Miami’s mistake rate hasn’t been generous.

The pick

Against the spread: Miami -13.5 (play to -14). Numbers at -14.5 are less appealing, but -13.5/-14 align with the on-field gap plus Miami’s defense/ATS form.
Score prediction: Miami 35, Louisville 17. That’s Miami covering most -13.5/-14 numbers and nudging Over the totals.