Memphis vs FAU Odds, Picks & Prediction

Game Time, Location, and Broadcast

Date & Time: Saturday, September 27, 2025, at 7:00 pm EDT
Location: Flagler Credit Union Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida
TV: ESPN2

Odds and Betting Information

Spread: Memphis is favored by 13.5 points
Over/Under: 63.5 points
Moneyline: Memphis -518, FAU +386

Team ATS and Totals Trends

Memphis is 4-0 ATS in 2025 and has covered both times as a double-digit favorite.
Florida Atlantic is 1-2 ATS on the season and 0-1 ATS as a double-digit dog.
Only one Memphis game has gone OVER the posted total this season; FAU is 2-1 to the OVER.

Recaps

Memphis is 4–0 after a wild 32–31 comeback over Arkansas, a win sealed by S Chris Bracy’s strip-and-recovery inside the 10 with 1:22 left. Before that, the Tigers handled Chattanooga (45–10), won at Georgia State (38–16), and stifled Troy (28–7). It’s their eighth straight FBS win dating back to last season.

Florida Atlantic sits 1–2 in Year 1 under head coach Zach Kittley. The Owls opened with a 39–7 loss at Maryland, bounced back to drill Florida A&M 56–14, then fell 38–28 at FIU in the Shula Bowl. Saturday marks FAU’s AAC opener.

Key Matchups

Memphis offense vs. FAU defense
This version of Memphis leans on a mean rushing attack and a QB who can move. The Tigers are averaging 236.3 rush yards per game at 5.9 YPC, converting 46.8% on third down, and scoring 35.8 ppg. RB Sutton Smith (394 rush yds, 5 TD) changes angles with one cut, and Brendon Lewis adds designed QB run game (293 rush yds, 4 TD) to complement his 807 passing yards. The big play popped last week: Smith’s 64-yard go-ahead TD keyed the Arkansas rally.

FAU’s defense hasn’t found a steady gear yet. Through three games, the Owls have allowed 39, 14 and 38 points (that’s 30.3 per game), and they’ve been light on havoc. That matters when you’re facing a downhill run game that’s happy to live in 2nd-and-manageable.

FAU offense vs. Memphis defense
Kittley’s arrival is obvious on the stat line: FAU is throwing it 326.7 yards per game, running ~87 plays per game (261 total plays in 3 games), and sits at 30.3 ppg. QB Caden Veltkamp has 880 yards, 8 TD, but also 7 INT, with WR Easton Messer (232 rec yds) and Asaad Waseem (3 TD) the primary beneficiaries of the Air-Raid-ish spacing. The big, red, blinking number: turnover margin –8 already. That’s how you waste yardage.

Memphis has quietly played real defense. The Tigers are allowing 16.0 ppg (64 total points in 4 games), held Troy to 112 total yards, and have gotten timely playmaking (LB DeMarco Ward already has 2 INT; S Chris Bracy made last week’s game-saving play). They’re not a blitz-everything unit, but they tackle and squeeze explosives.

Coaching & identity
Ryan Silverfield has rebuilt this roster around a balanced, physical offense and a defense that limits damage and he’s winning; the Tigers’ eight-game FBS run underscores that. On the other sideline, Zach Kittley (ex-Texas Tech/WKU OC) is in Year 1, and the offensive bump is already visible, but cleaning up the turnovers is priority No. 1.

Situational stuff
Tempo clash alert: FAU’s pace and pass volume can balloon game counts, but heat and humidity in Boca (mid-80s around kickoff) can tilt toward the team that sustains drives on the ground. That’s a Memphis wheelhouse. Also, special teams matter in spreads near two touchdowns; Memphis K Gianni Spetic is 4/6 on FGs with a 55-yard long.

How it likely plays out

The cleanest path for FAU is obvious: play fast, hit explosives, and, above all, stop giving the ball away. If Veltkamp gets into rhythm and they’re even (-0) in turnovers, the Owls can hang. The problem is the matchup pressure: Memphis can keep that offense on the sideline with Smith/Lewis on the ground, and the Tigers’ defense has already shown it can force the single game-swinging mistake. On a neutral field, maybe we’re talking 10–11; in Boca, you could argue a nudge toward FAU. But the current numbers still lean Tigers.

Betting pick

Against the Spread: Memphis -13.5 (playable to -14). The Tigers’ rush efficiency + FAU’s turnover issues (-8) are hard to bet into, and Memphis’ defense has traveled (16.0 ppg allowed; 112 yards allowed at Troy). If this hits -14.5, I’d reduce stake or pass; at -13.5/-14, I’m in.
Total: Lean Under 63.5. FAU’s pace is scary for an under, but Memphis can sit on leads via the run game. My projection: Memphis 38, FAU 24 (62 total). If weather trends toward higher humidity and a touch of late-day storms, that’s a small Under nudge.