Missouri at Kansas Prediction: The Line Moved Toward the Jayhawks and I Think the Market Is Right

The number that jumped out at me this week wasn’t the spread. It was 3.6.

That’s what Jamal Roberts averaged per carry against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 13 carries for 47 yards, in a game Missouri led 40-0 at halftime. Everybody watched Austin Simmons go 17 of 19 for 252 yards and four touchdowns and decided the Tigers were fine. The passing game was fine. The running game, without Ahmad Hardy, was not, and Friday night in Lawrence is the first time anyone will find out whether that matters.

Here’s where the game sits and where I sit on it.

The basics

One housekeeping note. Older schedules still show this game on Saturday the 12th. It was moved to Friday months ago, and KU’s official preview confirms the date and time.

The market

These are publicly posted snapshots, not a quote I’d stake my bankroll on. Check your online sportsbook before you bet anything.

So the spread came in a point from the opener and has held at 5.5 since Tuesday. The total is the odd one. It was 50.5 most of the week and BetMGM showed 51.5 Friday morning.. I’ll come back to that.

A few numbers worth having in your head. Missouri -5.5 against a 51.5 total works out to roughly Missouri 28.5, Kansas 23. The moneyline as I write this is Missouri -210, Kansas +177. Strip the vig from that pair and the market has Missouri at about 65 percent to win and Kansas at 35. At -210 you need Missouri to win this spot a shade under 68 percent of the time just to break even, better than two times in three. Every spread and total bet at -110 needs 52.4 percent.

The injury sheet is the whole story on the Missouri side

Hardy’s situation is not a game-time thing. He’s still recovering from a gunshot wound he took as a bystander at a concert in May, and Eli Drinkwitz has said he wants two full weeks of practice before he’ll consider him. That points to Mississippi State on Sept. 26 at the earliest. Some injury aggregators still have him listed as questionable. He is not questionable. He is out.

Green is the one I’d watch in warmups. Drinkwitz said he got through about three-quarters of Monday’s practice and “looked good,” which is coach-speak for probably, not yes. If Green plays, Simmons has his blind side back. If Green doesn’t play and Atkins is still out, Missouri is starting Jack Lange on one edge and somebody else on the other against a Kansas front that posted 11 tackles for loss last week.

Drinkwitz was asked about his running back room this week and said, “I don’t feel great.” I believe him.

Kansas has its own problems, smaller ones. Starting linebacker Bam Crouch left the LIU game in the first quarter with a shoulder injury and was doubtful most of the week; Quincy Davis is the next man up. Receiver Cam Pickett, who tied for the team lead with 45 catches last year, missed the opener and is a game-time call. Losing Crouch matters a little more than it looks, because he’s the guy who’d be meeting Roberts at the second level.

What Week 1 actually told us

Not much. Both teams played FCS opponents and both did what you’d want. I’m putting the numbers side by side because they’re useful for context, not because they predict anything.

Two things in that table I actually care about.

First, the split inside Missouri’s offense. Simmons completed 89.5 percent of his throws. Roberts averaged 3.6 a carry behind a line missing both starting tackles. Missouri’s identity last season was Hardy and a run game that set up everything else. Friday it’s a transfer quarterback making his first road start, with 118 career dropbacks before this season, behind a patched-together line, against a crowd that has waited 21 years for this.

Second, Missouri’s pass rush. One sack and six tackles for loss against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, and Drinkwitz said afterward the defense “weren’t able to shed blocks.” That unit lost Zion Young, Josiah Trotter and Damon Wilson II to the NFL. It was eighth in the country in yards allowed last year. It is not that defense yet, and it’s going up against a quarterback in Isaiah Marshall who ran for 49 yards last week and whose coordinator, Andy Kotelnicki, builds an entire offense around making a young QB comfortable. Drinkwitz called Kotelnicki’s scheme “very difficult on defenses, but pretty easy for his quarterbacks.” He’s not wrong.

One correction while I’m here. Kansas’ own preview says Simmons threw two touchdowns in the opener. He threw four. Small thing, but it’s the kind of small thing that ends up in a hundred articles.

The five matchups that decide it

Missouri’s tackles against Kansas’ front. If Green plays, this is a push. If he doesn’t, Kansas has a real chance to make Simmons uncomfortable early, and an uncomfortable quarterback in a rivalry game on the road tends to give the ball away.

Marshall’s legs against Missouri’s rush lanes. Drinkwitz specifically brought up quarterback containment and pass-rush discipline this week. Missouri’s raw sack count won’t tell you much Friday. Whether they can get pressure without opening an escape route is the number I’d watch.

Roberts’ efficiency without Hardy. A close game means more carries for Roberts than he got in a 40-0 halftime blowout. More carries is not the same as more yards per carry. His rushing prop is listed at 88.5. That’s a lot of yardage to ask from a back who managed 47 on 13 touches against an FCS team, even allowing for volume.

McMillan downfield. The Buffalo transfer has now gone over 100 receiving yards in seven straight games, six at Buffalo and one at Kansas. Different teams, different opponents, so I don’t lean on it as a projection, but Missouri’s secondary is transfer-heavy and hasn’t been tested. If Kansas hits two or three shots, the game script changes.

Third and fourth down. This is the real rematch angle, not the revenge stuff. Last year in Columbia Missouri converted 10 of 19 third downs and four of five fourth downs, and two of those fourth-down conversions came on the go-ahead drive. Kansas led 21-6 in that game and led again in the fourth quarter and couldn’t get off the field. Lance Leipold said it himself this week: “We didn’t make the stops when we needed to.”

Rivalry context, and how much of it to trust

Missouri won the 2025 renewal 42-31. The next scheduled game is 2031. That’s real stakes for both fan bases, and for Leipold, who is in year six with a $448 million stadium and back-to-back 5-7 seasons behind him.

Kansas has won seven of the last eight in Lawrence. I put almost no weight on that. Those games span coaching staffs, conferences and decades. The building is also smaller than it used to be; construction has capacity around 30,000 this year, so the “hostile environment” is loud but not huge.

One thing I’d avoid quoting confidently: the all-time series. Kansas says Missouri leads 57-55-9. Missouri says 58-54-9. Pick one and attribute it, or leave it alone.

Scheduling edge, for what it’s worth: Missouri played Thursday the 3rd, Kansas played Friday the 4th, so the Tigers had one extra day. Kansas didn’t have to travel. Wash.

Weather

Friday’s forecast for Lawrence is warm during the day, generally fair at night, light wind, a stray shower or storm possible. Nothing that should move a total. Check it again an hour before kickoff; forecasts from Thursday are forecasts from Thursday.

The props I’d look at, not necessarily bet

Simmons at 227.5 is interesting because he got 252 in less than a half last week, and the market is clearly extrapolating. He is also about to face the first defense all year that will make him hold the ball. Roberts at 88.5 is the one I’d fade if the price is fair, for the reasons above. Confirm the number and the settlement rules at the book that’s actually offering it before you do anything.

Where I land

I want to be honest about what the research supports and what it doesn’t. It supports a competitive game with Missouri deserving to be favored. It does not hand me a big, clean edge, and anyone telling you it does is selling something.

The case for Missouri is Simmons’ accuracy, a receiver group that showed up, and a defense that, even rebuilt, is still more talented than the one Kansas is putting out. Drinkwitz’s record as a road favorite has been very good, and last year’s 11-point margin at home translates to something close to a touchdown once you flip the venue.

The case for Kansas is that the market is asking Missouri to cover nearly the same number it covered last year, in the other stadium, without its best player, with a first-year starting quarterback, behind a line that may be missing both tackles. Marshall’s mobility attacks the exact thing Missouri’s defense was worst at in Week 1. And Kansas has had the ball with a lead in this game before.

Price decides it. At +5.5 or better I lean Kansas. At +4.5 I’m off it. If Green is announced out, the Jayhawks become a play at anything over a field goal. If the total climbs to 52 or higher I’d lean Under, because I think the first quarter is ugly for both offenses, the Missouri run game stalls, and at least one of these drives ends in a field goal that should have been seven. At 50.5 I’d pass on the total.

The one thing I’m confident about: whoever wins, this doesn’t look like the 40-0 halftime we saw last week. Two young quarterbacks, a Friday night crowd that’s been waiting since 2005, and a Missouri offense finding out how much of last week was Simmons and how much was the opponent. That’s a rivalry game. Bet it like one.

Lines are snapshots from sportsbooks retrieved Sept. 11 and are not guaranteed to be available at any sportsbook. Confirm player availability and current prices before wagering.