Missouri vs Auburn Prediction, Odds & Betting Picks | SEC Matchup Preview October 18, 2025 | Under/Over Analysis, Line Movement & Expert Score Projection

Missouri heads to Auburn on Saturday night in a tight SEC matchup that’s been a coin flip all week. Kickoff is 7:45 p.m. ET on the SEC Network, with Missouri now sitting as a slight 1.5-point favorite after opening as the underdog. The Tigers from Columbia are 5–1 and coming off a 27–24 loss to Alabama, a game that exposed some third-down issues but reaffirmed how tough their defense is. Auburn, 3–3 and winless in SEC play, has played a difficult schedule and leaned on its defense to stay competitive while the offense continues to lag behind. With the total hovering around 43.5, this projects as a low-scoring, physical game where field position and red-zone execution likely decide it.

Kick/time & TV: Missouri (No. 16, 5–1) at Auburn (3–3), 7:45 p.m. ET, SEC Network

Current odds snapshot (as of Oct. 15): A split market all week:

Bookmaker.eu: Missouri -1.5
Total: 43.5

Recaps

Missouri is coming off a narrow 27–24 loss to No. 8 Alabama, a game that exposed third-down issues (1-for-10) but didn’t dent how real this defense is.
Auburn just faced Georgia and sits 3–3 overall, 0–3 in SEC play, but it’s been a tough slate and the defense has quietly dragged totals down.

Key numbers & players

Mizzou offense (2025 leaders): QB Beau Pribula 1,365 pass yds, 11 TD; RB Ahmad Hardy 782 rush yds, 9 TD; WR Kevin Coleman Jr. 388 rec yds. Team scoring 43.7 ppg, points allowed 16.7 ppg.
Auburn offense (2025 leaders): QB Jackson Arnold 983 pass yds; RB Jeremiah Cobb 453 rush yds; WR Cam Coleman 305 rec yds.
Missouri 2025 record vs. the number: 3–2–1 ATS, 4–2 O/U.
Auburn 2025 record vs. the number: 2–3–1 ATS, 1–5 O/U.

Match up

Missouri’s defense vs. Auburn’s offense
Missouri’s points-allowed mark (16.7 ppg) is the headline, and it isn’t fluff they’ve flown to the ball and created negative plays, which is exactly how you bog down a developing passing attack. Auburn’s Arnold has been capable (and added value with his legs back in the Baylor win), but sustaining 10–12-play drives against this Missouri unit is where it gets dicey. If Auburn doesn’t consistently win early downs, third-and-medium turns ugly against Mizzou’s pressure.

Auburn’s defense vs. Missouri’s offense
This is where the Under angle gets life. Auburn’s defense has been the team’s more bankable side (1–5 O/U overall), and Missouri just put a 1-for-10 third-down performance on film against a top defense. Expect Auburn to dare Pribula to hit intermediate windows and keep the QB run in check, trusting the crowd to juice the pass rush. If Missouri’s ground game with Hardy can create 2nd-and-5s, they’ll look like the top-10 scoring offense again; if not, this turns into a field-position grind.

Situational + line movement notes
The flip from Auburn -1.5 to Missouri -1.5 at some shops says bettors respect Mizzou’s overall body of work more than Auburn’s home field right now. I lean that way, too Missouri grades better in both trench play and havoc creation, and Auburn’s offense hasn’t strung together complete games against upper-tier defenses. With a total around 44.5, every red-zone trip matters; the team with the cleaner operation on 3rd down and in the low red probably covers.

Handicap & Best Bet

Total (best bet): Under 44.5 (down to 43.5)
The data lines up: Auburn’s 1–5 O/U, a Missouri defense allowing ~17 ppg, and a Mizzou offense that can be forced into longer down-and-distance on the road. Night game, SEC speed on both sides, and two QBs who can run but still lean on the defense to win the day this profiles as a 40-ish total with limited explosives unless field position tilts.

Side: Missouri -1 / ML (up to -120)
Early week saw Auburn favored; by mid-week, several books showed Missouri -1.5. My number leans Mizzou by 3–4 points. The Tigers from Columbia have the better shot-creation on defense, a more balanced offense even after the Alabama stumble, and they’ve traveled well ATS. I respect Jordan-Hare at night, but to beat this version of Mizzou you need a top-25 offense or plus-two turnover luck. I’m not sure Auburn’s passing game is there yet. Small play: Missouri -1; larger play: Missouri ML if the spread toggles pick’em.

Projected score: Missouri 23, Auburn 17
That lands Under and clears a tight spread with room to spare. The path: Missouri’s front limits early-down efficiency, Pribula/Hardy do just enough on the ground, and special teams/field position nudge 3–4 drives into points.