NC State vs Wake Forest Odds, Picks & Prediction | Sept 11, 2025 Thursday Night ACC Matchup at Winston-Salem – Betting Preview, Spread, Over/Under & Key Stats

A rare early-season ACC game under the lights in Winston-Salem? Yes please. NC State (2-0) heads to Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium to face Wake Forest (2-0) on Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Books have the Wolfpack laying about a touchdown on the road, with totals hovering in the mid-50s.

Quick form check. NC State opened with a 24-17 win over East Carolina and followed with a 35-31 escape against Virginia. That’s a 2-0 start, but not without sweat. The offense has been steady behind sophomore QB CJ Bailey (518 passing yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) and Hollywood “Daylan” Smothers (216 rushing yards, 3 TD), who ripped off 140 yards and two scores in the UVA win. Senior WR Wesley Grimes has been the early big-play guy.

Wake’s 2-0 is a little more complicated. The Jake Dickert era (yes, the former Washington State coach is in his first season at Wake) started with a nervy 10-9 squeaker over Kennesaw State, then a 42-10 cruise against Western Carolina. Auburn/South Carolina transfer Robby Ashford has taken the QB job, and dynamic RB Demond Claiborne exploded for 193 yards and 3 TD in Week 2. It’s a new staff, a new feel, and so far uneven but promising flashes.

Game Details

Date & Time: September 11, 2025, at 7:30 p.m. EDT.
Location: Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC.
Broadcasts: The game will be televised on ESPN.
Teams’ Records: Both NC State and Wake Forest are 2-0 heading into this game.

Team & Player Stats

NC State Wolfpack: QB C. Bailey (40/57, 518 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT), RB H. Smothers (39 carries, 216 yards, 3 TD), WR W. Grimes (6 receptions, 154 yards, 1 TD).
Wake Forest Demon Deacons: QB R. Ashford (33/50, 445 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), RB D. Claiborne (13 carries, 212 yards, 3 TD), WR C. Barnes (9 receptions, 172 yards).

NC State is currently favored over Wake Forest by 7 to 7.5 points for their game on September 11, 2025, with the over/under set at 54.5 points and moneyline favoring NC State at around -255 to -270.

Betting Odds

Betting Type	NC State	Wake Forest
Spread	-7 (-111)	+7(-105)
Moneyline	-255	+225
Over/Under	Ov 54.5 (-107)	Un 54.5 (-109)

Odds From Bookmaker.eu

Predictive Angles

Simulations and analytic predictions give NC State about a 65% chance to win, projecting a score near NC State 29 – Wake Forest 23.
NC State is 5-2 against the spread (ATS) in its last 7 games, but only 5-11 ATS in the last 16.
Wake Forest has struggled ATS recently (4-11-2 in the last 17 games), but has mostly kept games low-scoring, with totals under in 4 of their last 5 contests.

Key Stats

NC State’s defense is ranked low, giving up 463.5 yards per game (124th in FBS).
Wake Forest’s red zone offense is weak, scoring only 40% of the time in the red zone (131st in FBS).
Both teams average just under 30 points per game and feature strong running backs.

Matchup notes that matter to bettors

1) New-look Wake vs. a settled NC State staff.
Wake made a big swing hiring Jake Dickert in December; his arrival brought a revamped staff and systems. Early returns: a conservative opener, then a breakout against an FCS opponent. NC State, meanwhile, is in Year 12 under Dave Doeren continuity that often shows up in early-season execution and situational football.

2) Quarterback efficiency trendlines.
Bailey’s early-season QBR sits in elite territory, and the tape matches the numbers: composed in structure, accurate on rhythm throws, and athletic enough to extend plays without getting reckless. Ashford brings more volatility live arm, legit legs, but still ironing out timing in a new scheme. Through two games: Bailey 518 yards on 70% completions; Ashford 445 yards with a lower QBR and one pick. Style points aren’t the point here the question is who avoids the game-tilting mistake. So far, that’s Bailey.

3) Claiborne vs. the Wolfpack front.
Demond Claiborne is the kind of back who punishes – he just ripped Western Carolina for 193 and three scores, including an 85-yard house call. NC State’s run fits were leaky at times vs. UVA, but Doeren’s defenses typically tighten quickly. If Wake can stay on schedule with Claiborne and keep Ashford out of obvious passing downs, the Deacs can trade punches. If not, third-and-long becomes Bailey’s runway to separate.

4) Red-zone & finishing drives.
Early team efficiency splits suggest NC State has cashed a high percentage of its red-zone trips, while Wake’s finishing has lagged (no surprise after a 10-9 slog in Week 1). “Field goals not touchdowns” is a tired phrase, but in a spread near a key number (7), it’s critical. An 86% vs. ~40% red-zone contrast through two weeks is exactly how favorites cover on the road.

5) Thursday in Winston-Salem is tricky… historically.
This series has had a quirky home-field lean: Wake has gone 8-2 straight up in its last 10 home games vs. NC State, and they’ve been an ATS thorn in the Wolfpack’s side in Winston-Salem. Trends aren’t destiny, especially with a new staff, but they’re a good reminder not to pay a tax above a TD on the road if you can avoid it.

What each offense wants

NC State: Use Smothers to force safeties to creep, then let Bailey hit layered throws to Grimes and the tight ends. The Pack have shown a willingness to play at a comfortable tempo and trust Bailey’s decision-making. If they get to 28 first, this script tilts red fast.

Wake Forest: Make it a Claiborne game. If Ashford is throwing off play-action on 2nd-and-4, Wake can string together 8-10 play drives and shorten things. The problem? Against a step-up defense, you generally need a couple of explosives through the air to keep pace. Wake had one in Week 2; it’ll likely need two or three on Thursday.

Current stats leaders (through two games)

NC State: QB CJ Bailey 518 pass yds; RB Hollywood Smothers 216 rush yds, 3 TD; WR Wesley Grimes team-high receiving yardage so far.
Wake Forest: QB Robby Ashford 445 pass yds; RB Demond Claiborne 212 rush yds, 3 TD; WR Chris Barnes early receiving leader.

The pick & prediction

My numbers end up close to market: NC State by 7.5–8. The Wolfpack have the two most stable edges right now quarterback efficiency and staff continuity and that usually travels on a short week. Wake’s path is real (Claiborne and a couple of Ashford scrambles can flip a quarter in a hurry), but requiring them to finish drives against a top-half ACC defense is a big ask this early in the Dickert transition.

Pick: NC State -7 (buy to -7 if your book is hanging -7.5). Lean Under 54.5 if you can grab the high end of the market; State can get into the low 30s, but Wake’s finishing variance keeps 27+ a coin-flip. My projected score: NC State 31, Wake Forest 21.