North Texas vs Tulane Prediction & Betting Preview (AAC Championship 12/5/25)

Two shades of green, one golden ticket. North Texas and Tulane meet Friday night in New Orleans in an AAC Championship that very likely doubles as a College Football Playoff play-in game. For bettors, it’s also one of the most interesting numbers on the board.

Game & Betting Snapshot

Matchup: #24 North Texas Mean Green (11–1) at #20 Tulane Green Wave (10–2) – American Athletic Conference Championship
Kickoff: Friday, Dec. 5, 2025 – 8:00 p.m. ET
Location: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA
TV: ABC

Consensus betting line (as of Dec. 5):

• Spread: North Texas -2.5
• Total: 66.5 points
• Moneyline: North Texas around -135 / Tulane around +115

Where These Teams Are Right Now

North Texas: The nation’s most explosive offense

North Texas didn’t just win 11 games; they rewrote their own record book doing it. The Mean Green enter at 11–1 (7–1 AAC), riding a six-game win streak and having scored at least 31 points in every game this season.

They bring the No. 1 scoring offense in FBS, averaging 46.8 points and 512 total yards per game. They’ve hung 50+ in seven of 12, and five of their last six.

Key pieces:

• QB Drew Mestemaker (UNT): 3,835 passing yards, 29 TD, 4 INT, completing about 71% of his passes – and leading the country in passing yards.
• RB Caleb Hawkins: 1,216 rushing yards, 23 rushing TDs (first in FBS in rushing scores).
• WR Wyatt Young: 1,203 yards, 10 TD; five 100-yard games in the closing stretch, including a 295-yard explosion vs Rice.

This isn’t a one-man show. Six different UNT receivers have 25+ catches, and the offensive line has allowed just 13 sacks in 12 games, ranking among the best in the country at protecting the QB.

Defensively, North Texas is more “good enough” than dominant, but that’s a big upgrade from past years. They sit around 65th nationally in yards allowed, with a top-10 pass defense but a bottom-10 run defense, and they’ve generated 23 turnovers for a +13 turnover margin.

Tulane: Balanced, physical, and almost unbeatable at home

Tulane rolls in at 10–2 (7–1 AAC) and is playing in its fourth straight AAC Championship Game. This version of the Green Wave is more grind than fireworks: they’ve scored between 23 and 38 points in 11 of 12 games, one of the most consistent scoring profiles in the country.

Offensive leaders:

• QB Jake Retzlaff: 2,717 passing yards, 14 TD, 6 INT plus 561 rushing yards and 14 rushing TDs, making him both Tulane’s starting QB and leading rusher.
• RB Jamauri McClure: Emerging late in the year, averaging 7.3 yards per carry and giving Tulane a genuine big-play back to complement Retzlaff’s legs.

Tulane spreads the ball around at receiver, but they’re missing their most explosive wideout: Bryce Bohanon, the only WR to post a 100-yard game this season, is expected to miss the title game with a leg injury. Safety Jack Tchienchou, the team’s leading tackler, is also listed as questionable, and DT Gerrod Henderson is out.

Where Tulane really flexes is in the trenches:

• The O-line ranks top-10 nationally in both fewest sacks allowed and fewest tackles for loss allowed.
• The D-line, led by interior disruptors Santana Hopper and Tre’Von McAlpine, anchors a run defense allowing just ~120 rushing yards and 3.5 yards per carry.

And then there’s Yulman Stadium. Tulane has won six straight at home, 9-1 in their last 10 there, averaging 31.4 points scored and allowing only 15 per game in that stretch.

Key Matchup: North Texas Offense vs Tulane Defense

This is the side of the ball that will decide your bet.

North Texas lives through the air. They’re top-six nationally in passing yards per game and push tempo relentlessly. Tulane’s defense is kind of the mirror image: excellent vs the run but ranked 119th in passing yards allowed, giving up chunk plays through the air.

That creates some pretty clear pressure points:

• Mestemaker vs Tulane’s secondary: UNT’s QB has gone interception-free in 10 of 12 games and rarely forces throws. Tulane’s back end has struggled, and with Bohanon out and Tchienchou banged up, they’ve also lost some leadership and range.
• Wyatt Young vs committee corners: Tulane doesn’t have a shutdown corner to travel with a true No. 1, and Young has been torching single coverage. If Tulane rolls extra help his way, they risk exposing the rest of the field to UNT’s deep receiver room.
• Hawkins vs Tulane’s front: The one place Tulane matches up well is against the run. Their front seven has been nasty, and UNT’s own scouting will tell them the quickest path to 40 points is through the air, not trying to pound a brick wall 25 times.

The wild card: fourth-down aggression. North Texas almost never settles; HC Eric Morris has been happy to go for it in plus territory rather than kick, with kicker Kali Nguma attempting only three field goals from 30+ yards all year. That’s great for upside, but it also creates swings if they get stuffed.

Tulane Offense vs North Texas Defense

On the flip side, Tulane has a very clean path to moving the chains: run straight at North Texas.

• UNT is one of the worst run defenses in FBS (bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed), though they’re top-10 against the pass.
• Tulane’s strength is Retzlaff’s dual-threat ability plus a committee of backs, now led by the hyper-efficient McClure.

If Tulane can:

1. Stay on schedule on the ground
2. Avoid turnovers
3. Let elite kicker Patrick Durkin cash in long drives (22-of-24 on FGs, excellent from 30–49 yards and strong from 50+)

…they can absolutely shorten this game and keep Mestemaker on the sideline.

The problem for Tulane is ceiling. They have not scored 40 points all season, and when this North Texas offense gets rolling, you probably need 35+ to keep pace.

Betting Trends to Know

Here’s a clean rundown of trends that matter for betting this matchup (numbers current as of Dec. 5, 2025):

1. Against the Spread (full season)
   • North Texas: 10–2 ATS, including covers in each of their last six games.
   • Tulane: 6–6 ATS, with a modest 3–2 ATS over their last five.
2. Totals
   • North Texas games have hit the Over in roughly 9 of 12 this year, reflecting their explosive scoring profile.
   • Tulane has gone Over in about a third of their games (4 of 12).
3. Home/Road splits
   • Tulane is 9–1 in their last 10 at Yulman, allowing just 15 points per game.
   • North Texas is 7–3 in their last 10 on the road, scoring over 40 per game.
4. Conference & situational
   • Both teams enter on five-game winning streaks, each coming off blowout victories.
   • Betting splits are close to 50/50, with no heavy public lean.
5. Injuries/availability
   • Tulane likely without WR Bryce Bohanon, plus DL Gerrod Henderson out and S Jack Tchienchou questionable.
   • North Texas is healthier among its offensive stars.

Handicapping the Spread & Total

All right, so what do we actually do with North Texas -2.5 and a total of 66.5?

Case for North Texas -2.5

• Massive matchup edge in the passing game versus a Tulane secondary that has been leaky all season.
• Elite, mistake-free QB play from Mestemaker.
• UNT’s offense never really bottoms out — even in their lone loss, they scored 36 points.
• Coaching changes affect both sides, so there’s no one-way motivation angle.

Case for Tulane +2.5

• Home-field advantage may be as strong here as anywhere in the AAC.
• North Texas’ biggest defensive weakness (run defense) aligns perfectly with Tulane’s identity.
• Tulane can control tempo, shorten the game, and rely on Durkin’s steady kicking.

The biggest single mismatch in the game remains UNT’s passing attack vs Tulane’s secondary. And when you need only a field goal to cover, that’s typically the side you want to be on.

Lean on the Total

At 66.5, the number basically asks if North Texas can dictate tempo.

If they score early, Tulane may have to throw more than they want to, which introduces volatility either empty possessions or short fields that lead to points.

My projection lands in the high 60s, so I slightly lean Over.

Best Bet & Score Prediction

Best Bet: North Texas -2.5

North Texas has the better quarterback, the more dynamic offense, and the most favorable matchup on the field. Tulane’s run-heavy offense and home environment make them dangerous, but it likely won’t be enough to outscore a Mean Green attack that simply finds ways to hit big plays every week.

Projected Final Score: North Texas 38, Tulane 31

• North Texas -2.5
• Slight lean: Over 66.5