Northwestern vs Nebraska Prediction, Odds & Expert Pick

Nebraska is laying roughly a touchdown to visiting Northwestern in Lincoln on Saturday (FS1, 11 a.m. CT). Most offshore Sportsbooks show Nebraska -7.5 with a total around 44.5

Northwestern vs. Nebraska preview

Both teams enter at 5–2, but they’re trending in very different directions. Northwestern has won four straight, fresh off a 19–0 shutout of Purdue that looked, frankly, like a defense finding its groove. The Cats limited Purdue to 57 first-half yards and forced multiple turnovers; Preston Stone did enough (132 yards, 2 TDs) and Joseph Himon II churned out 87 yards on 22 carries to control the script.

Nebraska, meanwhile, is trying to shake off a rough Friday night at Minnesota. The Huskers lost 24–6 and, more concerning for this matchup, allowed a school-record nine sacks on Dylan Raiola.

Odds, time & TV

Spread/Total (consensus snapshot): Nebraska -7.5 / O/U 44.5
Kick: 11 a.m. CT at Memorial Stadium (FS1)

Matchup

Nebraska offense vs. Northwestern defense
Raiola’s year has been impressive on the whole 1,768 yards, 16 TD, 5 INT, completing 72.8% and he ranks top-20 nationally in passer efficiency. But he’s also taken too many hits, and that showed in Minneapolis. If Nebraska can protect, the passing game is clearly the Huskers’ edge.

The problem? Northwestern’s defense has been legitimately stingy. Nebraska’s official game notes peg NU at 15.1 points allowed per game and ~305 yards allowed top-25 caliber through seven games and the Cats have held opponents to 14 or fewer in four straight. That style pairs with a methodical offense and pushes games toward a squeezed pace.

Northwestern offense vs. Nebraska defense
Preston Stone’s headline line isn’t flashy (1,213 yards, 10 TD, 7 INT), but he’s settled into efficient, mistake-limited football the past few weeks. Northwestern’s cumulative stats confirm the modest but competent passing profile (59% completions, 6.5 YPA). If RB Caleb Komolafe is good to go after leaving the Purdue game early as local reporting suggested midweek that’s a lift against a Nebraska front that’s been excellent vs. the pass but more gettable on the ground.

Nebraska’s defense (the “Blackshirts”) is not the problem; in fact, WarrenNolan’s advanced page has them allowing 19.4 ppg with a +16.6 average scoring margin overall. It’s a strong unit, especially on early downs, and it can flip the game if it forces Stone into passing downs.

Form & psychology
Momentum is tricky to quantify, but it matters. Northwestern just blanked a Big Ten foe; Nebraska is facing a protection crisis and some injury uncertainty up front (Rocco Spindler’s status has whiplashed from “maybe back” to “likely out,” depending on the day’s report). Even if Spindler suits up, cohesion is the bigger question after nine sacks last week.

Series & situational notes
This series is tight more often than not 10 of the past 13 decided by one score.. The Huskers lead the all-time 10–7 and won the last meeting in Lincoln 17–9 (2023).

Betting trends that actually help

Northwestern is 5–2 ATS this season; unders are 6–1 in Wildcats games
Nebraska is 2–5 ATS with overs 5–2 to date
The last 13 meetings feature 10 one-score results

How it likely plays out

Nebraska has the higher ceiling because Raiola can rip off chunk plays with a clean pocket. But for the second straight week he won’t be facing a passive front. Northwestern isn’t Minnesota, but the Wildcats are fundamentally sound on the edges and in coverage, and they’ve been living in opponents’ backfields enough to keep third downs long. That’s exactly where Big Ten games die.

If Komolafe is in the lineup and close to full speed, Northwestern can test Nebraska’s run fits and shorten the game. If he’s limited, it tilts toward Nebraska, but the Cats’ defense still projects to keep this within a possession for most of the afternoon. The other sneaky edge: Northwestern’s profile (top-25 scoring defense, heavy under trend) meshes with the series’ one-score DNA, which makes grabbing the full seven feel valuable.1

On totals, there’s a real tug-of-war. Nebraska games have skewed to the over, but a lot of that came in September. The current snapshot—banged-up OL, a ball-control opponent that’s 6–1 to the under, and a forecast low-40s total leans me slightly to the under if you can still find 43.5. The game script most consistent with both teams’ October identities is field position, red-zone threes, and a couple of short fields off turnovers not a track meet.

Pick (spread & total)

Against the spread: Northwestern +7.5 The Wildcats are covering, and Nebraska has been burning ATS backers. If the Husker OL stabilizes, it’s a sweat, but the matchup and proven one-score series history nudge this toward a tight finish.
Total: Under 44.5 (light). Northwestern’s defensive form plus their 6–1 under trend = value down to 43

Projected score: Nebraska 20, Northwestern 17. That lands inside the number and under the total, aligning with both Northwestern’s current identity and this rivalry’s habit of late, sweaty fourth quarters.