Notre Dame vs Arkansas Odds, Picks & Prediction

Notre Dame faces Arkansas on Saturday, September 27, 2025, in Fayetteville in a high-stakes, high-scoring matchup. Notre Dame is favored by about 4.5-5.5 points with most sportsbooks setting the total at 64.5, and both teams are coming off dramatic games with defensive questions and potent offenses.

Game Details and Broadcast

Date & Time: Saturday, Sept. 27, 2025, at 12:00 PM ET
Location: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
TV: ABC

Odds and Predictions

Spread: Notre Dame -4.5
Total (O/U): 64.5 points
Moneyline: Notre Dame (-178 to -186), Arkansas (+146 to +155)
Line opened with Arkansas +6.5 but was bet down to +4, signaling strong early value on the home underdog and evidence of sharp money, before some correction toward Notre Dame -4.5.

Betting Trends

Notre Dame has won eight straight September road games against unranked teams and has consistently covered as a favorite against such opponents.
Arkansas has lost their last five games against AP-ranked teams and failed to cover in four straight September home games.

Records

Notre Dame (1–2): Lost at Miami 27–24, lost to Texas A&M 41–40 on a last-second TD, then hammered Purdue 56–30 to steady things.
Arkansas (2–2): Blew out Alabama A&M and Arkansas State, then dropped a wild 41–35 game at Ole Miss and let a big lead slip at Memphis in a 32–31 loss.

Key player trends & team stats

ND QB CJ Carr (true freshman): 737 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT; QBR 77.6. He was efficient vs. Purdue (223 yards, 2 TD) after a volatile first two weeks.
ND RB room: Jeremiyah Love has 284 rushing yards and was terrific against Purdue (157 yards, 2 TD). Jadarian Price added a KR TD and 3 rushing TDs in that game. WR Malachi Fields leads ND with 203 receiving yards.
Ark QB Taylen (Taylen) Green: 1,191 pass yards, 12 TD, 4 INT; QBR 90.5 (No. 4 nationally). He’s also their leading rusher (360 yards).
Ark playmakers: RB Mike Washington Jr. has 330 rush yards, 4 TD; WR O’Mega Blake is at 326 receiving yards.
Explosiveness & pace: Arkansas is averaging 8.9 yards per play (No. 2 nationally) with ~552 total yards per game; ND sits around 6.7 yards per play. Tempo-wise, Ark ~25.6 sec/play (moderate pace), ND slower at 28.3 sec/play.

How these teams actually win you a bet

When Notre Dame has the ball
ND’s offense finally looked like itself against Purdue: power run, play-action chunk plays, and enough QB run to punish man coverage. Love and Price give Marcus Freeman a hot-hand committee; Fields and Jordan Faison stretch the seams and intermediate windows Carr likes. If the Irish can live in 2nd-and-5, Carr’s RPO rhythm is tough to disrupt. Arkansas’ defense just allowed 41 to Ole Miss and 32 to Memphis, and while those were road games, the tackling and leverage issues on explosives showed up on film and in the numbers (Hogs are allowing around 5.1–5.6 opp. yards/play depending on the split). That’s where ND can be patient and still create explosives.

Two caution flags for ND backers: (1) Noon kick on the road in SEC heat can start sluggish; and (2) if Moore/Smith are still limited, it might push the Irish to call a more ball-control game to protect a thin secondary — fewer possessions means a tighter spread sweat.

When Arkansas has the ball
This is the matchup. Taylen Green’s tape reads like a stress test: vertical shots off play-action, QB draws, and off-schedule scrambles that turn 3rd-and-8 into 25-yard backbreakers. The 8.9 YPP headline isn’t a typo; it’s hyper-efficient, and Green’s also the team’s top rusher, which complicates ND’s pass-rush lanes. Pair that with Mike Washington Jr. hammering light boxes and O’Mega Blake as the go-to target, and you get why Arkansas can score in bunches.

Notre Dame’s defense… has been leaking explosives. The Irish gave up 360 passing yards to A&M in that one-point loss and sat their top corner last week. The front seven can create havoc, but if the back end is still patchwork, Green’s deep ball + QB run game is a high-variance cocktail the exact profile that wins as a home dog.

Betting pick & score prediction

I like Notre Dame to win, but the spread asks a bit much for a noon SEC road trip against a quarterback who’s dealing. The matchup likely tilts on explosives vs. explosives: ND’s run game + shot plays versus Arkansas’ QB-driven chunk gains. The Irish are the more balanced team right now, but if Leonard Moore isn’t 100% (or unavailable), Green has a clear runway to keep this within a field goal.

Pick: Arkansas +4.5 (play to +4).
Lean: Over 64.5.
Projected score: Notre Dame 35, Arkansas 31.