Rice vs Charlotte Odds, Prediction & Betting Preview | AAC Thursday Night Football 9/18/25
Rice (2–1) visits Charlotte (1–2) at Jerry Richardson Stadium, Thursday at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Online Sportsbooks have the line at Rice -2 with a total of 42; typical moneylines are roughly Rice -125 / Charlotte +110. Always shop, but those are the prevailing prices as of Wednesday afternoon.
Game Overview
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 18, 2025, at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte, NC
- TV Coverage: ESPN
This is an American Athletic Conference (AAC) matchup between the Rice Owls (2-1) and the Charlotte 49ers (1-2).
Team Stats Comparison
| Category | Rice | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive Points/Game | 20.3 (101st) | 18.7 (112th) |
| Defensive Points/Game | 21.3 (72nd) | 29.7 (110th) |
| Turnovers Allowed | 2 (27th) | 7 (125th) |
| Turnovers Forced | 2 (95th) | 1 (118th) |
- Rice has one of the best ground attacks and ranks 14th nationally for rushing; Charlotte’s run defense is ranked 89th.
- Rice time of possession per game: 35:11 (9th FBS).
- Charlotte allows 323 passing yards per game.
Series History & Trends
- Charlotte holds a 3-1 record vs Rice in their last four meetings and is 3-1 ATS against Rice in those games.
- Road teams have consistently performed well in this matchup, and Rice has covered the spread frequently in conference play.
- Both teams have tended to play low-scoring games, with the total often going UNDER.
Why the number is where it is
Both programs are in Year 1 under new head coaches Scott Abell at Rice and Tim Albin at Charlotte so sportsbooks are balancing small-sample 2025 data against scheme changes. Abell has installed a motion-heavy, spread-option run game (think Davidson’s old blueprint), while Albin brought a modern spread with tempo elements. That philosophical clash ball control vs. pace helps explain the modest total in the mid-40s and a tight spread.
What each team has shown so far
Rice Owls (2–1)
The Abell era opened with a gritty 14–12 road win at Louisiana, a stumble against rival Houston (35–9), then a clean rebound vs. Prairie View A&M (38–17). The identity has been unmistakable: run first, drain clock, and make you play from behind the chains. Through three games, Rice is averaging 243.3 rushing yards per game on 168 attempts, controlling the ball a whopping 35:11 per game. Passing volume is light (just 210 yards total through three), but efficiency has been fine on limited attempts.
Personnel-wise, RB Quinton Jackson (213 yards, 2 TD), RB Daelen Alexander (149), slot back Aaron Turner (89, 2 TD) and QB Chase Jenkins (144 rush, plus 27-of-37 passing for 182 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) are the engines of the option look. Defensively, LB Ty Morris (20 tackles), LB Andrew Awe (18) and S Jack Kane (INT) headline a unit that’s kept opponents to 142.3 passing yards per game so far. Turnover margin sits at even.
Charlotte 49ers (1–2)
Charlotte faced a rugged first fortnight App State and North Carolina before getting right against FCS Monmouth. The spark was real: QB Conner Harrell threw for 382 yards and 3 TDs and ran for two more, while WR E. Jai Mason erupted for 10 receptions, 228 yards, 2 TDs in a 42–35 win. That passing ceiling is the good news. The not-so-good: through three, the run game is stuck in neutral at 2.78 yards per carry (278 yards on 100 attempts), and the turnover margin is -6, tied near the bottom of FBS.
Defensively, Charlotte has been vulnerable through the air 969 opponent passing yards allowed in three games with only one takeaway. DB Ja’Qurious Conley leads the team with 20 tackles, followed by LB Shay Taylor (19). The 49ers can tackle, but explosive plays and short fields off turnovers have burned them.
Matchup & Angles
1) Rice’s run game vs. Charlotte’s front seven
Rice wants 45+ rush attempts and >34 minutes of possession. Charlotte’s defense is conceding 4.0 yards per carry (not disastrous), but has been on the field too much and hasn’t flipped the script with takeaways. If the 49ers can’t steal extra possessions, Rice’s option rhythm travels well enough to grind out drives and shorten the game.
2) Charlotte’s air show vs. Rice’s pass defense
Harrell-to-Mason looked like a legit WR1/QB1 battery last week; the question is sustainability against an FBS defense that has limited passing success to date. Rice has held foes to 48.7% completions and 427 passing yards total across three, albeit against a different mix of opponents than Charlotte’s seen. If Charlotte protects the ball (a big “if” given the -6 margin), this is the area where the dog can bite.
3) Hidden yards: penalties, field position, and special teams
Rice has been tidy 15 penalties for 158 yards and is 6-of-7 scoring in the red zone (five TDs). Charlotte has been less efficient in the red area (6 scores on 11 drives), and those empty trips are killers in a low-total game. In a one-score spread, every stalled red-zone series matters twice.
4) Series and setting
These programs have traded blows since Charlotte joined FBS; the series is tied 3–3 after Charlotte’s 21–20 win in Houston last September. Thursday brings a “Gold Rush” home crowd, plus the new-coach bump for Albin, but Rice’s style tends to mute road volatility.
Key players to watch
- Rice QB Chase Jenkins – dual-threat trigger in the option. Modest passing volume, but keep an eye on his designed keepers and red-zone reads.
- Rice RB Quinton Jackson – 213 rushing yards already; chain-mover who fits Abell’s patient approach.
- Charlotte QB Conner Harrell – 664 passing yards, 4 TD, 2 INT; confidence should be high after Monmouth.
- Charlotte WR E. Jai Mason – the breakout star; 16–284–3 through three, including that 228-yard masterpiece.
Betting Pick
Spread: At -2, the market says Rice by a field goal on a neutral-ish rating. My numbers lean Owls by ~4.5 when you weight time of possession (35:11), rushing efficiency (243.3 rush ypg), and Charlotte’s -6 turnover margin. Charlotte’s passing pop is real, but it’s offset by a run game stuck under 3.0 YPC and a defense that hasn’t generated takeaways. If you can still find -2.5, that’s preferable; I’d play it to -3 flat. Pick: Rice -2.
Total (42): Rice wants a 10–11 possession game and is 6-for-7 scoring in the red zone, mostly TDs, but they also bleed clock. Charlotte’s offense spikes when the pass is humming, yet the run inefficiency creates too many second/third-and-longs. With both coaches happy to shorten the game in different ways (Abell by design; Albin, if game script forces it), I show ~41–43 as the median. Lean: Under 42.
Moneyline: If you dislike laying points on the road, a conservative approach is Rice ML in the -120s. It’s not sexy, but it aligns with the matchup edges and mitigates the possibility that special teams decide it late.
Final prediction
Rice’s option offense and defense-first posture are built to travel. Charlotte’s passing game, keyed by Harrell and Mason, gives the 49ers a puncher’s chance especially if they can hit two explosives and finally win the turnover battle. But the more likely script is Rice staying on schedule (Jackson/Alexander/Jenkins on the ground), squeezing the clock, and forcing Charlotte into one or two mistakes.
Projected score: Rice 23, Charlotte 17
Best bets: Rice -2, Under 42.