Sam Houston vs New Mexico State Prediction & Best Bet

Sam Houston is still hunting win No. 1, while New Mexico State is trying to stop a two-game slide. Odds are tight, and the market’s been nudging around a field goal.

Game Preview (Thu, Oct. 2, 2025)

Kick/TV/Place: 9:00 p.m. ET (7:00 p.m. MT) on CBS Sports Network, Aggie Memorial Stadium, Las Cruces, N.M.

Current market snapshot: SportsBooks opened Sam Houston around -1.5 and moved to -2.5 with a total 52.5.

Where each team stands right now

Sam Houston (0–4, 0–1 CUSA)
The Bearkats have played a tricky slate and wore a 55–0 shutout at Texas in their most recent game, getting out-gained 607–155 and never threatening after halftime. QB Hunter Watson handled most of the load early in the year (209 pass, 91 rush at WKU), but protection and efficiency have been issues as competition ramped up.

The results line is straightforward:

L 24–41 at Western Kentucky
L 21–38 vs UNLV (in Houston)
L 20–37 at Hawai‘i
L 0–55 at No. 8 Texas

New Mexico State (2–2, 0–1 CUSA)
The Aggies opened 2–0 behind QB Logan Fife, edging Tulsa 21–14 with a late TD and beating Bryant 19–3. The last two weeks, though, they were handled by Louisiana Tech (49–14) and rival New Mexico (38–20). The offense has leaned on the pass WR PJ Johnson III ripped 157 receiving yards at La Tech while the run defense has sprung leaks (353 rush yards allowed vs La Tech).

Matchups

1) Bearkat protection vs. Aggie pressure
When Sam Houston sees real Power-5 fronts, the offense grinds (Texas shutout). NMSU isn’t Texas, but the Aggies have flashed individual rush moments (e.g., Ezra Christensen sack vs Tulsa; Jamall Thompson Jr. impact vs Bryant). If NMSU wins enough early downs, Watson will be in long-yardage more often than Phil Longo’s Air Raid wants.

2) NMSU explosives through the air
Fife’s chemistry with Johnson III and TE Gavin Harris has shown up—late game-winner vs Tulsa; chunk plays in Ruston even in a loss. Sam Houston’s defense has been leaky against speed and shot plays on the road. If NMSU hits a couple early explosives, it flips the script on game state and forces SHSU to chase.

3) Run-defense softness
La Tech rolled 353 rushing yards on NMSU. Sam Houston’s ground game isn’t dominant, but Watson’s legs have been their best run threat (91 at WKU). Designed QB runs and quick game could be how SHSU steadies drives.

4) Momentum & situational angle
The Aggies are back home after the rivalry loss at UNM; Sam Houston is coming off a physical beating in Austin. Short-week travel to altitude and desert heat (even a dry 80s kickoff) tilts the small edges toward the home side.

Recaps

NMSU last two (L2): Outscored 87–34; but Fife 281 pass yds at La Tech; UNM 38–20 sealed it late
Sam Houston last two (L2): L 20–37 at Hawai‘i; L 0–55 at Texas; offense hit a low in Austin

Against the Spread & Totals (2025 to date):

Sam Houston: 0–4 ATS, 3–1 to the Over. They’re one of six FBS teams still winless ATS
New Mexico State: 1–3 ATS, 2–2 O/U

Betting trends

Sam Houston is 0–4 ATS (worst tier nationally)
New Mexico State is 1–3 ATS with a 2–2 O/U split
Three of Sam Houston’s four games have gone Over
NMSU pass game ceiling: PJ Johnson III 157 yards in Ruston; Fife 281 yds there as well (even in defeat). Explosive pass threat is real
Sam Houston travel/spot: third road game in four weeks and on a short week after Texas; NMSU at home under the lights on CBSSN

Matchup read & pick

I don’t love laying points with a winless road favorite on a short week, especially when the opponent’s best unit (NMSU’s passing game) attacks the same area where Sam Houston’s defense has bent most. The Bearkats want rhythm throws, tempo, and balance through Watson; they can find it in spurts if NMSU’s linebackers struggle to fit the run. But the Aggies’ combination of veteran receivers and late-game passing answers (see: Tulsa) is the cleaner path to points.

Add in the ATS profiles Sam Houston 0–4 ATS, NMSU 1–3 ATS but more competitive early in the year and the slight market drift toward the dog makes sense. If you can grab +2 or better pre-kick, that’s my favorite side. I expect trading scores early, some third-quarter stall (both teams have shown it), and then Fife finding a decisive drive.

Pick: New Mexico State +2 (sprinkle ML +110 or better)
Projected score: New Mexico State 31, Sam Houston 27.