SMU vs Clemson Prediction & Odds | College Football Week 8 Betting Preview (Oct. 18, 2025)
SMU (4–2, 2–0 ACC) heads to Death Valley for a rematch of last year’s ACC title game thriller that Clemson won on a walk-off 56-yard field goal. The Tigers (3–3, 2–2) just strung together back-to-back blowouts and look healthier and sharper than they did in September.
Odds
- Spread: Clemson -5.5 at most online sportsbooks; opener as high as -10.5 in spots
- Total: 50.5
Matchup notes
- Recent results:
• Clemson 41–10 at Boston College (Oct. 11) – efficient day for Cade Klubnik, defense dominated.
• SMU 34–10 vs. Stanford (Oct. 11) – defense slammed the door, Justin Medlock’s 96-yard pick-six iced it. - Team efficiency / “tale of the tape”:
• Clemson offense: 408.8 ypg (56th), 26.3 ppg (81st), passing 278.8 ypg (25th). Defense: 18.5 ppg allowed (27th).
• SMU offense: 404.8 ypg (61st), 34.0 ppg (42nd). Defense: allowing 423.2 ypg overall, 315.8 passing ypg (135th) but tough vs run (107.3 rushing ypg allowed, 27th). - Situational stats that matter to bettors:
• Clemson red-zone offense has sputtered (73.7% scoring, 119th), and SMU’s red-zone D is elite (64.0% scoring allowed, 3rd). That’s the classic “yards vs points” tug-of-war.
• Turnovers & flags: Clemson is -4 on turnover margin (111th) while SMU sits +5 (20th). SMU is more penalty-prone (67.8 penalty yds/g, 114th).
• Third down: SMU converts 37.8% (89th); Clemson’s defense allows 32.5% (29th). Advantage Tigers in getting off the field. - Key players / production leaders:
• Clemson: QB Cade Klubnik (1,530 pass yds, 11 TD, 5 INT, 65.8%); WR Bryant Wesco Jr. (31 rec, 537 yds, 6 TD); RB Adam Randall (404 rush yds, 4 TD).
• SMU: QB Kevin Jennings (1,658 pass yds, 15 TD, 6 INT, 71.7%); RB Tomarion Harden (414 rush yds, 5 TD); WR Romello Brinson (32 rec, 484 yds, 3 TD).
SMU’s offense is balanced and fast, but the defense has a glaring split: excellent vs the run, very shaky against the pass. Clemson’s passing game has heated up the last two weeks and matches cleanly against that Mustangs secondary. If Klubnik has a standard day and avoids the one back-breaking mistake, Clemson can live in advantageous down-and-distance without needing to bully the front on the ground. On the other hand, SMU’s ball security edge (and Clemson’s red-zone hiccups) keep the backdoor very real at numbers above a touchdown.
The revenge angle
These programs have history now: Clemson nipped SMU 34–31 for last year’s ACC crown on a walk-off 56-yarder. Narrative points to SMU revenge, sure, but roster continuity actually favors Clemson’s passing attack (Klubnik-to-Wesco chemistry) vs. SMU’s pass defense profile in 2025. The “revenge” may show up in SMU’s prep especially red-zone defense but talent still leans Tigers at home.
Pick & betting approac
Side: Clemson -5.5 (-115) or better is my play; The handicap is straightforward: Clemson’s passing game is peaking and matches up against SMU’s weakest defensive link, and the Tigers’ defense owns the third-down leverage to create extra possessions. Death Valley helps — and we’ve already seen this quarterback and kicker win this head-to-head in a high-pressure spot. Projection: Clemson by 10–13.
Total: Under 50.5 (lean). It’s not my primary position, but the combo of Clemson’s red-zone inconsistency vs. SMU’s stingy red-zone defense plus both teams’ Under trend (1–4 last five for each) nudges this toward a 27–17 / 31–20 type script more often than a true shootout. If you only want one bet, I prefer the side.