TCU takes on Arizona State in a highly anticipated Week 5 college football matchup on September 26, 2025, at Mountain America Stadium in Tempe, Arizona, with kickoff scheduled at 9:00 PM EDT. Both teams have strong starts to the season TCU is undefeated at 3-0, while Arizona State stands at 3-1.

Game Overview

Date and Time: Friday, September 26, 2025, 9:00 PM EDT.
Location: Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ.
Broadcast: Coverage on major sports networks and streaming platforms.
Weather: Forecast is mild (81°F) with light winds; minimal chance of rain.

Key Betting Trends

Arizona State is 2-2 ATS in their last four games, indicating moderate reliability against the spread recently.
TCU has a historically poor record against Arizona State, although their offensive form in 2025 suggests a higher ceiling.
The total has gone over in only one of the last four ASU games, hinting at lower-scoring outcomes in recent matchups.
Arizona State is undefeated ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less since 2024 (5-0 ATS).

Odds snapshot

Spread/Total: Arizona State -2.5 (-115) vs. TCU +2.5 (-105); Total 55.5 (o/even, u/-120). Moneyline: ASU -135, TCU +115. Lines move, so treat these as a snapshot rather than a guarantee.

Where each team stands

TCU rides into Tempe at 3-0 after a statement 35–24 win over SMU, where Josh Hoover detonated for 379 yards and 5 TDs, and Boise State transfer Eric McAlister put up a ridiculous 8/254/3 line. That wasn’t just an eye test thing that performance helped pop the Frogs into the AP Top 25 at No. 24 this week. Momentum is real, even if polls don’t decide spreads.

Arizona State sits 3-1 (1-0 Big 12) after a gritty 27–24 road win at Baylor. QB Sam Leavitt ran and threw for scores, Raleek Brown churned out tough yards, and the Devils showed a pretty clear identity: lean on the run, shorten the game, and let the crowd and defense do some work late.

The numbers that actually matter

ESPN’s pregame profile is handy here, and it paints a classic strength-on-strength (and weakness-on-weakness) matchup:

TCU offense vs. ASU defense

TCU is 14th nationally in total offense (516 ypg), 6th in passing (341.3 ypg), and an elite 5th on third-down conversion (62.5%). The passing efficiency and chain-moving rate are what travel. The blemish: 97th in red-zone offense (78.6% score rate).
ASU’s defense is sneakily sturdy against the run (95.3 rush ypg allowed – 28th) but leaky vs. the pass (238.8 pass ypg – 97th). Crucially, the Sun Devils hold a top-30 red-zone defense (29th, 75%) exactly where TCU has sputtered. If the Frogs stall for 3s instead of 7s, that’s the path to an ASU cover.

ASU offense vs. TCU defense

ASU’s offense is run-forward: 219 rush ypg (24th), 187 pass ypg (101st), 406 total (65th). Leavitt’s legs matter. WR Jordyn Tyson is the chain-mover and finisher (357 yds, 5 TD already), but this unit is happiest staying on schedule.
TCU’s defense: 107 rush ypg allowed (38th solid and 246 pass ypg (104th) less ideal. The Frogs can be hit over the top, but ASU hasn’t lived there yet. Another pressure point: time of possession ASU averages 33:22 (16th) to TCU’s 28:51 (96th). If that gap shows up Friday, Hoover’s total play count shrinks.

Situational/market angles

Schedule & setting: ASU already has a Big 12 road win (Baylor), while this is TCU’s conference opener. Nighttime in Tempe, “blackout” in the stands, FOX TV window all classic spots where ASU’s energy is a factor. Forecast on ESPN’s page shows ~89° at Tempe, which can still test depth in the fourth quarter.
Market consensus: Most online sportsbooks sit around ASU -2.5 with a total ~55.5. That basically says these teams are near-equals on a neutral field (home worth ~2–3). If you like TCU’s offense to travel, +2.5 is valuable; if you trust ASU’s run game and red-zone D to force field goals, laying under a field goal is palatable.

How it likely plays out

When TCU has the ball: I expect Kendal Briles to test ASU’s corners early with isolation shots and then punish off-coverage with the slant/quick-game that crushed SMU late. The third-down edge (62.5% conversion) is massive sustained drives travel. The catch: inside the 20, ASU’s defense stiffens. If the Frogs trade touchdowns for field goals twice, the spread becomes a coin flip again.

When ASU has the ball: Kenny Dillingham will try to turn this into a 10-possession game, not 12–13. That means feeding Raleek Brown, mixing in read-keepers for Leavitt, and hunting Tyson on key downs. The Frogs’ run front has actually been better than the national narrative, so ASU may need Leavitt’s legs to tilt numbers. If TCU gets ASU into third-and-long, the pass-game inconsistency can show up.

Special factors: TCU just stepped back into the rankings—there’s always a tiny let-down risk after an emotional, rivalry send-off (the final Iron Skillet), but their offense looked scalable, not fluky. Meanwhile, ASU’s identity (TOP control, ground game, red-zone defense) is exactly the sort of formula that makes short home favorites cover more than they should. I’m not ignoring that.

Pick & Bets

Side: TCU +2.5 (-105) and I’d sprinkle TCU moneyline (+115). Why? The mismatch between TCU’s top-10 passing efficiency and ASU’s bottom-quarter pass defense is louder to me than the RZ split, and Hoover’s third-down track record should generate enough sustained scoring opportunities to offset a couple of stalls. If you can find +3, all the better.
Total: Lean Over 55.5. TCU’s first three games landed 62, 63, and 59 total points; ASU’s have ranged from mid-40s to high-50s. With TCU’s pass game versus ASU’s pass defense, the explosive-play risk is high. The only Under path I see is an ASU TOP strangle paired with red-zone stops; that’s live, but I have it as the second-most likely script.

Final score prediction: TCU 31, Arizona State 27. Frogs cover and win outright, powered by Hoover on third down and 2–3 explosive pass plays that flip field position. ASU’s run game keeps it tight, but the aerial gap plus a couple of late-game possessions in a two-minute script tilts it purple.