Tulane vs Ole Miss Game Preview and Betting Pick (12/20/25)

Tulane’s story is already wild but the next chapter is even louder: a road CFP game in Oxford against an Ole Miss team that already blasted them once. If you’re betting this one, the main question is simple: is this rematch closer… or a repeat?

Game details

Tulane travels to Ole Miss in a College Football Playoff first-round matchup on Saturday, Dec. 20, 2025 (3:30 p.m. ET) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium (Oxford, Mississippi), airing on TNT/truTV.

Current odds

Odds vary slightly by book, but the market has been living in a pretty tight band:

• Spread: Ole Miss -17.5 (Tulane +17.5)
• Moneyline: Tulane +600 / Ole Miss -948
• Total: 56.5
• Notable movement: opener around Ole Miss -16.5, drifting to -17.5.

What happened in the first meeting?

These teams aren’t guessing at matchups they played in September, and Ole Miss won 45–10. In that game, Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss threw for 307 yards, while Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff had a miserable passing day (5/17).

That result is why this spread looks like a “normal” CFP mismatch. But it’s also why the rematch angle matters: Tulane has clearly grown since then, and they’re coming in off a conference title performance that actually travels well (line play, sacks, run game).

Tulane snapshot

Tulane enters at 11–2 and just won the AAC title game 34–21 over North Texas.

The headliner is QB Jake Retzlaff, who’s been a true dual-threat this season:

• 2,862 passing yards, 14 passing TDs
• 610 rushing yards, 16 rushing TDs (yes, from the QB spot)

Tulane’s team profile is balanced and sturdy:

• 29.08 points per game scored
• 22.62 points per game allowed
• 170.2 rushing yards per game
• 8 interceptions thrown all season

If you’re hunting for the “how does Tulane keep it close?” script, it’s usually some combo of:

1. Retzlaff extending drives (especially in the red zone),
2. avoiding turnovers, and
3. turning the game into something a little grimy — fewer possessions, longer series, fourth-down decisions.

Ole Miss snapshot

Ole Miss is 11–1 and the No. 6 seed hosting this one.

The Rebels’ skill guys are exactly what you’d expect from a top SEC offense:

• QB Trinidad Chambliss: 3,016 passing yards
• RB Kewan Lacy: 1,279 rushing yards
• WR Harrison Wallace III: 719 receiving yards

From a betting standpoint, the scariest part is the setting. Ole Miss has been on a tear at home in recent seasons, and their own program notes have highlighted an elite home stretch (both win rate and production).

Also: Ole Miss’ offense isn’t just “good,” it’s efficient in the exact places that break spreads chunk plays, fourth-down aggression, and the ability to score quickly if the opponent’s game plan slips even a little.

The betting trends

Here are the most useful trends/splits I’m seeing for bettors:

• ATS records: Ole Miss 7–5 ATS; Tulane 6–6–1 ATS.
• Totals: Ole Miss is 6–6 O/U; Tulane is 4–9 O/U (heavy Under team).
• Situational trend (Ole Miss as a big favorite): Ole Miss is 9–0 SU / 8–1 ATS in its last nine when favored by 17.5 points (database trend).
• Market movement: spread ticked from about -16.5 to -17.5, suggesting early money leaned Ole Miss, but it hasn’t exploded past the key-ish high teens.
• Straight-up reality check: Ole Miss 11–1 SU, Tulane 11–2 SU — these are both winning teams, which is part of why laying a huge number can feel uncomfortable.

Matchup keys

1) Can Tulane run enough to shorten the game?
Tulane’s baseline is ~170 rush yards/game. If they’re stuck in obvious passing downs, the “keep it close” plan evaporates fast.

2) Retzlaff’s legs vs. Ole Miss’ discipline
Retzlaff’s rushing TD number (16) tells you how often Tulane leans on him near the goal line. If Ole Miss forces field goals instead of QB-run touchdowns, laying the points gets a lot easier.

3) Ole Miss’ early-down efficiency
Ole Miss has the kind of offense that can put you behind schedule quickly. If Tulane falls into a two-score hole early, then the dog cover starts needing backdoor math.

My pick and prediction

I keep coming back to this: Ole Miss is the better team, but the number is inflated by the September blowout. And rematches with a mobile QB + a proud underdog tend to get weird—especially when the underdog’s best path is ball control and red-zone creativity.

Best bet: Ole Miss -17.5
Lean: Under 56.5

Projected score: Ole Miss 41, Tulane 14