Tulane vs UTSA Prediction, Odds & Betting Preview (October 30, 2025)
Tulane enters at 6–1 (3–0 AAC) and a short road favorite. UTSA is 3–4 (1–2 AAC), but the Roadrunners have been frisky offensively and they get the home crowd plus ESPN’s cameras in the building, which tends to crank up the energy in San Antonio.
Odds
- Spread: Tulane -3.5
- Total: 55.5
- Moneyline (consensus): Tulane ~-200 / UTSA ~+175
Recaps
Tulane (6–1): First-year starter Jake Retzlaff (BYU transfer) has stabilized the offense with efficient decision-making. He’s sitting at 1,428 passing yards with a sterling 6:1 TD–INT and a top-20 QBR (79.9). He’s also been a factor on the ground, and Tulane’s staff is leaning into designed runs/QB keepers in the low red zone. The defense, meanwhile, remains the team’s calling card Top-40-ish in scoring D and decent havoc generation up front.
UTSA (3–4): The Roadrunners have flipped the identity a bit this fall more run-game punch, more explosive plays, and a defense that has sprung some leaks. QB Owen McCown leads with 1,310 pass yards; RB Robert Henry Jr. has been the tone-setter (868 rush yds through seven, including a 150+ yard showcase vs. Texas State). UTSA’s scoring is healthy (~29 ppg), but the defense is giving up north of 32 ppg. In short: they can trade haymakers, but they also give opponents extra possessions.
Recent results line up with that profile. Tulane has rebounded nicely since the early loss, including a 31–14 road win at Tulsa where the front seven lived in the backfield and RB Javin Gordon punched in three TDs. UTSA, on the other hand, dropped a home track meet to Texas State (43–36) despite a huge night from Henry Jr., which underlined both the offense’s upside and the defense’s strain.
Matchups
When Tulane has the ball
Tulane isn’t a fireworks act, but they’re balanced and efficient: ~405 total yards per game, ~26 ppg, with a QB who minimizes mistakes. Retzlaff’s legs are the hidden lever he’s dangerous on zone-read and scramble drill, and he’s been trusted in short-yardage. UTSA’s defense is allowing ~33 ppg and ~405 ypg, with issues against explosive runs and play-action (gap fits and second-level tackling have been inconsistent). That combination sets up well for Tulane to string together 10–12 play drives and finish with QB/RB runs inside the 10.
Names to know: WR Shazz Preston has been Tulane’s most reliable chain-mover (team-high receiving yards), while the staff has mixed in Bryce Bohanon and TE Johnny Pascuzzi in possession downs. Keep an eye on the injury page – Tulane has had some defensive depth nicks in October, but nothing that dramatically changes their offensive plan.
When UTSA has the ball
UTSA can stress you horizontally and vertically. McCown is comfortable in tempo and throws well on rhythm, and Henry Jr. brings real home-run speed; he’s the one Tulane must corral. The Green Wave front has flashed disruption (multi-sack games, TFLs in clusters), which matters because UTSA can stall if they fall behind the sticks. If Tulane wins early downs, the downfield stuff to Devin McCuin and David Amador II becomes lower percentage. If UTSA stays on schedule, this becomes a fourth-quarter coin flip.
Betting trends
- ATS form (season): Tulane 4–3 ATS; UTSA 3–4 ATS
- Totals: Tulane unders have hit far more often than overs (2–5 O/U). UTSA games have leaned over (5 of 7).
Handicapping the number
Spread (-3.5): Power-rating blends and the current efficiency split make Tulane by ~3–4 on a neutral; the Alamodome edge pulls it closer, but Tulane’s QB efficiency and defensive ceiling nudge the projection back above a field goal. In other words, the market at -3.5 is fair. The earlier -5.5 was rich; the current number bakes in UTSA’s home boost and recent offensive life.
Total (55.5): Tulane skews under; UTSA skews over. The clash usually resolves around mid-50s unless there are special teams busts or sudden-change turnovers. Tulane’s style (methodical, low-mistake drives) naturally bleeds clock; UTSA’s pace/boom potential pushes back. My raw total sits 54.8 close enough that I’d need 56.5+ to like a full-stake under or 53.5- to like the over.
Best bets & pick
Lean: Tulane -3.5 (play to -3; smaller at -3.5).
Tulane’s edge is in turnover avoidance and red-zone execution. Retzlaff’s 6:1 TD–INT and top-tier QBR matter on the road, and the Wave front has the right profile to create two or three negative-play series against a UTSA offense that needs rhythm. If Tulane wins early downs and keeps Henry Jr. from explosive chunk runs, the Roadrunners are forced into longer third downs where Tulane’s pass rush can win.
Total: Pass/lean Under 55.5.
This is thin, but the way Tulane compresses games plus their ATS form (covers tied to defense) points slightly to the under unless UTSA hits multiple explosives. If you like UTSA +3.5, you probably like Over 55.5 as a small correlated lean; if you like Tulane, the under is the better match.
Final score prediction
Tulane 28, UTSA 24 (Tulane -3.5 just barely gets there; Under 55.5 sneaks in). The Wave’s clean QB play and situational defense tilt a possession game. A late UTSA drive stalls in the high red zone as Tulane squeezes windows and forces a field-goal try or turnover on downs.