West Virginia vs. BYU Pick, Prediction & Best Bet

West Virginia heads to Provo on Friday night (Oct. 3) looking to steady a wobbling start; BYU is trying to keep its unbeaten run and national ranking intact. Kick at LaVell Edwards is 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN, which means a true late-window sweat.

West Virginia vs. BYU Preview

The market has come in heavy on BYU. As of today, multiple online sportsbooks have the Cougars laying roughly -19.5 with a total around 47.5, and moneylines hovering near BYU -1200 / WVU +750 depending on the shop.

The form guide is lopsided. BYU is 4–0 (1–0 Big 12) after a composed 24–21 road win at Colorado, a game where true-freshman QB Bear Bachmeier went mistake-free and added nearly 100 rushing yards to steady the ship after an early 14–0 hole. That performance helped land him on ESPN’s “Top Freshmen” list through the first month. West Virginia is 2–3 (0–2 Big 12) and coming off back-to-back thumpings at Kansas (41–10) and vs. Utah (48–14). The school’s official recap from Saturday doesn’t sugarcoat it.

Availability matters for WVU and it’s a bit murky. Starting QB Nicco Marchiol (foot) was ruled out vs. Utah; local reporting at the start of the week emphasized he’d been evaluated by a specialist, and his status for BYU remains uncertain as of this writing. If he can’t go, WVU leans even harder on the run game and backup options.

Matchup

BYU’s defense vs. WVU’s offense. Quietly, the Cougars have been nasty on that side of the ball. Through four games they’re allowing 9.3 points per game, 150.5 pass yards, and 76.3 rush yards—top-tier numbers in the early going. WVU, meanwhile, sits at 22.0 points per game with a run-first identity (216.2 rush YPG) and modest passing outputs (179.4 pass YPG). When you put those heads-up, BYU owns clear per-play and per-game advantages.

Tempo and game script. West Virginia wants to ugly this up, shorten the game, and lean on its backs; that approach actually worked for chunks vs. Utah where the Mountaineers piled up 261 rushing yards but still couldn’t keep pace because the passing game produced only ~85 yards. Against a BYU front that has been stingy and a secondary that’s not biting, that one-dimensionality is a problem if they trail.

Quarterbacking. Bachmeier has been efficient (ESPN’s season leaders page lists him at 697 passing yards, 6 TD, 0 INT; he also brings designed-run juice), and he’s handled leverage moments on the road, which matters for trust laying a big number. WVU’s situation hinges on Marchiol’s foot; if he’s limited or out, the Mountaineers’ explosive-play ceiling falls.

Situational note: altitude + late kick. It’s non-quant, but a 10:30 p.m. ET start at elevation has historically amplified second-half separation for strong home favorites especially if the dog is thin at QB. BYU’s depth at RB (e.g., LJ Martin featured earlier in September) helps them keep the run game rolling into the fourth quarter.

Current betting trends

BYU is 3–1 ATS this season; WVU is 2–3 ATS.
WVU: Under in 4 of the last 5 overall; Over in 8 of the last 11 road games; 1–4 ATS last five vs Big 12
Totals lean Under in BYU games to date (1–3 O/U), while WVU sits 1–4 O/U, which dovetails with the market’s move from low-50s to high-40s.

Handicap & pick

Let’s be honest: laying three scores is never comfy, and BYU’s offense while efficient hasn’t been pedal-down every week. Still, the way these teams are trending, the matchup leans heavily Cougars. BYU’s defense has squeezed opponents on early downs, forcing obvious pass situations they can hunt; WVU’s passing efficiency hasn’t traveled, and if Marchiol isn’t 100% (or sits), the Mountaineers’ margin for error shrinks to basically turnovers and explosives in the ground game.

The one path where WVU threatens the number is if the run game stays ahead of schedule and they finish drives something they didn’t do against Utah despite decent rushing totals. The hard reality is BYU is top-25-caliber on defense right now, fundamentally sound in the box, and willing to let its offense play field position. Narrative-wise, this also shapes up as a body-blow spot: Friday altitude, late kick, short week travel after a physical game vs. Utah.

Numbers to trust: BYU 3–1 ATS and a combined 2–7 O/U between these teams suggest the underdog/under parlay that your contrarian buddy proposes will be tempting. I get it. But the qualitative read quarterback health and BYU’s defensive profile pulls me slightly differently.

Bet:

BYU -19.5 (playable to -20). Projection has BYU by ~21–24 more often than not.
Lean Under 47.5 if you must get involved on totals, but I prefer the side given WVU’s defensive leaks the last two weeks and the possibility a short field (or two) nudges this into the low-50s.

Score prediction: BYU 31, West Virginia 10. That covers the -19.5 and lands just under 47.5 consistent with early-week trend data and the Cougars’ defense being the best unit on the field.