Players Championship (PGA Tour) Handicapping Preview and Betting Free Plays

by Earl Campbell | March 9, 2020 |

The Players Championship takes place this week and the Spooky Express is back once again handicapping this PGA Golf Tournament looking for some value and the overall winner.  

Last week, we cashed a nice 55/1 winner with Tyrrell Hatton at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.  This is the prime example of when I say that in golf betting, to be profitable, you must have a shot at winning on the final day and Hatton not only gave us the shot at winning, he stayed steady and came through late.    

This week, we change our focus to the Players Championship from Ponte Vedra, Florida.  This tournament is considered by many the “5th Major” from the PGA pros and will look like a “Major” as many of the top names in the game will be playing this year once again.  

This tournament has been played since 1974 and is not only one of the oldest tournaments played on the PGA Tour but it now has the largest prize pool of $12.5 million dollars.  That huge prize pool is mainly what will attract all these big names from the PGA and also from the Euro Tour, even though this is not “Officially” part of the Euro Tour, as many of the other “Majors” are.  

Keep in mind, there is no Euro Tour this week so we had a little more time to focus on getting us another winner and hopefully going back-to-back! 

TPC Sawgrass Course Details

The Players Championship is played each year at TPC Sawgrass’s Stadium Course. The tournament has been played here since 1982, so needless to say, there is plenty of course history to review. One thing to keep in mind, the course was sort of redesigned 4 years back and was shortened, so your best option may be to simply look at the past 4 years and player form.   

TPC Sawgrass is a very difficult golf course to play on. Over the last 5 years, we have saw scores peak out at -10, -15, -12, -13 and -13.   

The course was designed by Pete Dye and that means golfers will need to think about their approach shots and be very careful around the greens.  If you are looking for similar Pete Dye Courses to use course correlation, you can use Harbour Town Links at the RBC Heritage, TPC River Highlands for the Travelers Championships and TPC Stadium Course at La Quinta for the CareerBuilder.

The greens at TPC Sawgrass are some of the smallest the pros of the PGA will play on all year.  They are made up of Bermuda Grass and can be tough to hit.

The fairways are lined with trees and have a number of bunkers and water hazards that will without a doubt come into play.  

There is no doubt that the premier viewing hole at TPC Sawgrass is the Island Green at the 17th.  This 137 yards Par 3 is such an exciting hole for people watching on and in person, that this has become one of the most exciting tournaments to watch as a fan of the game.

Add in the fact that the weatherman is calling for 10-15 mph winds throughout the week and that should make for some interesting shots onto the Island….or in the water!   

Players Championships Cut Info

The cut line for the Players Championships is much like most other normal tournaments.  There are 144 golfers scheduled to start the tournament on Thursday and only the Top 70 and ties will make it through the cut, to play on Saturday and Sunday.    

Players Championships System Attributes

This week, we are using the same format and attributes that we used last year, that proved to be effective with the past few years. Our main attribute will be Ball Striking.  This course puts a heavy emphasis on Ball Placement and Strategy for the upcoming shots. If you veer off the path on the small greens, you will find yourself in tough situations and very difficult to recover from.  

Most of the scoring at TPC Sawgrass will come from the Par 5’s so you want to make sure you have looked at how your golfer performs on the Par 5’s.  Also make sure you are putting a decent weight on Strokes Gained: Approach this week because if these guys miss those fairways and greens, they are in serious trouble.

  • Ball Striking
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Scrambling
  • Strokes Gained: Tee To Green
  • Greens In Reg
  • Par 5 Scoring
  • Par 4 Scoring
  • Strokes Gained: Around The Green

Players Championships Golfers

Rory McIlroy +700 at MyBookie for 3 Units

You guys know that I rarely, if ever, play just one or two golfers because I would rather give a spread of golfers.  This week, I think we save some money and simply play the best golfer in the world and the defending champion, Rory McIlroy. McIlroy is the cream of the crop in this tournament and should have little to no trouble at all being there on Sunday with a shot at the win.  He is the only golfer in this tournament to check all 8 boxes this week and not only does he fill in those boxes, but he is very strong with the numbers. He is #1 on tour in Par 5 Scoring Average and Scrambling, #2 on tour in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, #3 on tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and ranks Top 22 in all other categories that we are using this week.  Guys, I’m telling you to go all in with your units on Rory this week. Play him as your One-and-Done, make sure he is in your DFS Lineups and throw a few units on him because I truly think he runs away with with weeks’ Players Championship. 

Xander Schauffele +2800 at MyBookie for 1 Unit

If you decide that you don’t want to have just 1 golfer this week, then take a look at Xander Schauffele at 28/1.  Xander has played here 2 times with mixed results. Last year, he totally missed the cut and just didn’t play well on the first two days.  The year prior, in 2018, he competed against Webb Simpson for the win, finishing in 2nd place. Right now, his numbers say he will compete this week and should be there on Sunday…….but truly I think the other 143 golfers are competing for 2nd place because Rory is going to dominate!  🙂

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