US Open Handicapping Picks and Betting Preview

by | Jun 11, 2019 | Golf

Matchup at a Glance

Where: Pebble Beach Golf Links

Location: Pebble Beach, California

Date: Thursday, June 13-16, 2019

 

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This week, the pro’s from around the world will meet up for one of the most popular golf tournaments of the season, the US Open.  

This year, the tournament takes place in Pebble Beach, California along the beautiful coastline of the Pacific Ocean at Pebble Beach Golf Links.

The PGA Tour made a stop already once here at Pebble Beach this year and have played each year in some way, shape or form since 1947.  

Pebble Beach Golf Links Course Details

Pebble Beach has been the host site of five US Open’s and is once again serving as the host venue for this years 2019 US Open.  The previous years that Pebble Beach hosted the US Open were 1972, 1982, 1992, 2000 and 2010.

Pebble Beach Golf Links measures out at around 7,075 yards and plays as a Par 71.  The course is laid out along the beautiful California coastline and is one of the most beautiful courses on the PGA Tour.

The fairways at Pebble Beach are wide enough to drive several tractor-trailers on but they are heavily bunkered. That means very narrow landing areas and difficult approach shots.  

There are 118 sand bunkers spread out throughout this course and it is shaping up to be one of the toughest courses they will play on this year.  

The greens are made up of some of the toughest Poa Annua Greens that can be very difficult to put on, especially when you factor in the Pacific Coast winds. The greens are just 3500 square foot, which is extremely small!

Pebble Beach System Attributes

There are several key system attributes that have played out strong at Pebble Beach and several factors that have helped us pick a winner over the years here.   

First and foremost, you must find golfers that have a decent short game.  Those with good putting games and decent approach games will do well here.  You also want to put some emphasis on play around the green. These greens are some of the smallest on tour and those that miss the greens are going to need to be able to recover.

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around The Green
  • Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Greens In Regulation
  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
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US Open Golfers

Patrick Cantlay +3000 for 1.5 Units at BetMania

Cantlay was good for us two weeks ago when he won the Memorial Tournament and I like his chances again this week at the US Open.  Cantlay has played at Pebble Beach 3 times and has actually played well here. He is coming in with great form wit a win, and two 3rd place finishes in his last 3 tournaments. Cantlay checks all of the boxes for us this week, ranking 10th on tour in Strokes Gained: Approach, 13th on tour in Strokes Gained: Around The Green, 14th on tour in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee, 15th on tour in Driving Distance, 29th in Strokes Gained: Putting, 32nd on tour in Ball Striking and 37th on tour in Greens in Reg.  

 

Jordan Spieth +2502 for 2 Units at Bookmaker

Jordan Spieth has really improved his game lately and is starting to peak.  He finished in the Top 8 in each of his last 3 tournaments, which includes a 7th place finish at the Memorial Tournament, 8th place finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a 3rd place finish in the PGA Championship.  Jordan has always played well here at Pebble Beach, which includes a win in 2017.

 

Hideki Matsuyama +3500 for 1 Unit at MyBookie

Hideki Hideki Hideki…….I got to be honest with you, I absolutely HATE playing Hideki with a passion but his numbers fit here.  He is 6th on tour in Strokes Gained: Approach, 10th on tour in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 14th on tour in Ball Striking, 25th on tour in Driving Distance, 26th on tour in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and 26th on tour in Greens in Reg.  Hideki is coming off a 6th place finish at the Memorial Tournament and sets up ideally for this week.

 

Emiliano Grillo +14000 for 1 Unit at WagerWeb

When I first started my research for this week, I had made up my mind that no golfer stood a chance to win this that was under 50/1 because that is what history tells us.  Golfers that are lower on the totem pole of odds just don’t win these big tournaments, especially the US Open…..then I saw Emiliano Grillo. Grillo’s numbers are off the chart and are screaming for a very very very big week here at Pebble Beach. Grillo has improved his game every tournament over the past 11 weeks.  He is 8th on tour in Ball Striking, 12th on tour with Strokes Gained: Approach, 20th on tour in Greens in Reg and 21st on tour in Strokes Gained: Off The Tee. I swore I was not going to play ANYONE over 50/1 but then I came to my senses and saw his 140/1 odds and threw a unit on him! I can’t let those odds pass me up so I have to play him.

US Open Head To Head Matchups

Emiliano Grillo over Rafa Cabrera Bello -115 for 2 Units

Rob Oppenheim over Billy Hurley -125 for 2 Units

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