PGA Valero Texas Open Handicapping Preview

by Apr 2, 2019Golf

Valero Texas Open

Course: TPC San Antonio

Location: San Antonio, Texas

Start Date: Thursday, April 4, 2019

Finish Date: Sunday, April 7, 2019

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Valero Texas Open Overview

The Valero Texas Open is played each year and has been around since 1922, 97 years ago, when it made its debut.  

It was originally called the Texas Open, however, it was eventually sponsored by San Antonio company Valero Energy Corporation.  

The Valero Texas Open is the 6th oldest tournament played on the PGA Tour and the longest tenured tournament played in the same location.

The tournament has been played at several different golf courses but has been at TPC San Antonio since 2010. The timing for this tournament vary.  There were times when it was played in September, times when it took place in October and also in May, but now it is played in the month of April.  

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) Details

The Valero Texas Open is played at TPC San Antonio on the Oaks Course. This course sits 1100 feet above sea level so this is one of those courses that you want to pay attention to the elevation factor.  In the past 10 years, 7 of the last 10 winners finished with a double-digit score.

TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course is a Par 72 golf course that measures 7,435 yards.  This Par 72 course is made up of four Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s and four Par 5’s. With the distance being over 7,400 yards, driving distance is definitely a factor and those golfers that have decent numbers in the Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and Driving Distance will be a very strong asset to have this week.     

The greens at TPC San Antonio are bermudagrass.   The greens are pretty much average on tour standards.  Nothing really much to say about these greens. They don’t purposely try to make them tough simply because they don’t have to. If you head over to YouTube and watch a few videos of some golfers over the past few years putting, you will notice one thing that is consistent and that is the wind.  

Weather always seems to play a major factor here in San Antonio and I would expect the same this year.  The weather forecasters are calling for 8-10 MPH winds every day of the tournament. Granted, I am writing this article on a Tuesday Afternoon so make sure you check the weather prior to placing your wagers on Wednesday Night or Thursday Morning.  The only other factor for weather this week is on Saturday, they are calling for some rain and thunderstorms but other than that, it looks pretty clear wti temps in the mid 70’s.

Cut Info

There is a normal cut at the Valero Texas Open, with the top 70’s plus ties making the cut.  There are a total of 152 golfers in this week’s tournament so over half will be eliminated with the cut and the other half will play on Saturday and Sunday.  

System Attributes

We already spoke earlier of focusing on Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and Driving Distance, but we also want to pay attention to Strokes Gained: Putting.  These greens are not really hard but when the wind picks up, it becomes comical to watch these guys putt. Therefore, I will put a heavy emphasis this year on making sure I have decent putters that can be flexible with bad weather and windy conditions.

  • Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
  • Driving Distance
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Scrambling
  • Birdies or Better %  

Valero Texas Open Golfers

Jason Kokrak +2825 at Bookmaker for 1 Unit

Kokrak has been one of the most reliable golfers but has yet to crack that win on the PGA Tour. The Texas Open is the spot for many first time winners and with Kokrak coming off a 2nd place finish in his last tournament, 2 weeks ago at the Valspar Championship, I think he could very easily hang around and get the win! He hits the top of our boxes for Ball Striking, Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Off The Tee and is without a doubt my favorite player this week!

Lucas Bjerregaard +5050 at Bookmaker for 1 Unit

Bjerregaard is ranked 43rd in the world right now but a bad performance could have him ending up outside the Top 50, which he can not afford. He played well last week at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, finishing in 4th place, finished in 30th at the Players Championship, and 12th at the Honda Classic in his last 3 tournaments. No reason to believe that he doesn’t play well this week and compete for a win!

Aaron Baddeley +6000 at Bookmaker for 1 Unit

Aaron Baddeley is my train wreck that I can’t look away from but here I am looking once again. When I play him, he misses the cut but when I don’t play him, he is coming in 2nd or 7th and competing for the win. I think what we are seeing is he plays really well in these low competition tournaments but not very good in tournaments where he has stiffer fields.  The one thing that stands out this week and makes me return to Baddeley is the fact that he plays really well here and seems to like the course. Last year he finished in 16th place, the year prior in 5th, 2013 in 15th and 2010 in 3rd.

Joost Luiten +5150 at Bookmaker for 1 Unit

Luiten is ranked #67 in the world and if he wants to play next week in the Masters, he will need a strong week here in San Antonio.  He was given a sponsors exemption to play this week and comes in with good form, hitting the Top 12 in 4 of the last 5 tournaments he has played in. At this price, it’s tough to not play Joost Luiten!

Justin Harding +9575 at Bookmaker for ½ Unit

As many of you are aware, we have won with Harding this year, as he has won 5 international events in the past 12 months and 13 additional Top 10 finishes.  Harding is using this tournament as a warmup for next week’s Masters. That being said, there is no doubt that he will be trying hard to get a win on US soil.    

Scottie Scheffler +15000 at Intertops for ½ Unit

Scheffler is 22-years old and will be playing in his home state of Texas. Last week, he was the runner up at the Tours Savannah Golf Championship and is playing decent golf right now.  A win here would do him wonders in his career! This is the first PGA Tour for him in 2019 after competing on the Tour 7 times in 2019 and finishing inside the Top 10 on 3 occasions.

Chip McDaniel +30000 at XBet for ½ Unit

McDaniel has only played in 2 PGA Tour events but watching highlights from last week, this kid has a future!  He finished in 5th place last week at the Corales Punta Cana Resort and Club Championship and took home a check for $114k.  Not to shabby for a guy that had only played in one other tournament on the PGA level, where he finished in 60th place at the 2018 Barbasol Championship.  I like his chances this week since it is a soft tournament and with many of the big names sitting out in preparation of next week’s Masters, it is a great time for him to sneak and and make his name known!


Valero Texas Open – Opening Odds

Rickie Fowler — +1000
Matt Kuchar — +1600
Tony Finau — +1600
Jordan Spieth — +2000
Jim Furyk — +2500
Billy Horschel — +2500
Sung-Jae Im — +2500
Jason Kokrak — +2500
Lucas Glover — +3300
Byeong-hun An — +3300
Lucas Bjerregaard — +3900
Charley Hoffman — +3900
Graeme Mcdowell — +4000
Joost Luiten — +4000
Si-woo Kim — +4000
Abraham Ancer — +4000
Hao-tong Li — +4000
Jhonattan Vegas — +4000
Ryan Moore — +4000
Denny McCarthy — +5000
Joaquin Niemann — +5000
Ryan Palmer — +5000
Aaron Baddeley — +5000
J.b. Holmes — +5000
Luke List — +5000
Daniel Berger — +5000
Jimmy Walker — +5000
Russell Henley — +5000
Joel Dahmen — +6600
Mackenzie Hughes — +6600
Ollie Schniederjans — +6600
Andrew Putnam — +6600
Justin Harding — +6600
Matt Jones — +6600
Sung-Hoon Kang — +6600
Bud Cauley — +6600
Kramer Hickok — +6600
Nick Taylor — +6600
Austin Cook — +8000
Dylan Frittelli — +8000
Luke Donald — +8000
Trey Mullinax — +8000
Chesson Hadley — +8000
J.T. Poston — +8000
Peter Uihlein — +8000
Andrew Landry — +8000
Chris Kirk — +8000
Jonathan Byrd — +8000
Sam Burns — +8000
Kelly Kraft — +10000
Scott Stallings — +10000
Brian Harman — +10000
Martin Kaymer — +10000
Wyndham Clark — +10000
C.T. Pan — +10000
Martin Laird — +10000
Harris English — +12200
Brendan Steele — +12500
Chris Stroud — +12500
Grayson Murray — +12500
Kevin Tway — +12500
Nick Watney — +12500
Ryan Armour — +12500
Brian Gay — +12500
Curtis Luck — +12500
Kyle Stanley — +12500
Padraig Harrington — +12500
Sepp Straka — +12500
Beau Hossler — +12500
Brian Stuard — +12500
Ernie Els — +12500
Kevin Streelman — +12500
Kyoung-Hoon Lee — +12500
Rory Sabbatini — +12500
Vaughn Taylor — +12500
Adam Long — +15000
Carlos Ortiz — +15000
Harold Varner — +15000
Julian Etulain — +15000
Roberto Diaz — +15000
Sam Ryder — +15000
Sebastian Munoz — +15000
Adam Schenk — +15000
D.J. Trahan — +15000
J.J. Spaun — +15000
Peter Malnati — +15000
Roger Sloan — +15000
Sam Saunders — +15000
Shawn Stefani — +15000
Ben Silverman — +15000
Danny Lee — +15000
Jonas Blixt — +15000
Roberto Castro — +15000
Ryan Blaum — +15000
Scottie Scheffler — +15000
Hudson Swafford — +20000
John Huh — +20000
Richy Werenski — +20000
Scott Langley — +20000
Ted Potter — +20000
Hunter Mahan — +20000
Martin Trainer — +20000
Robert Streb — +20000
Seamus Power — +20000
Tom Hoge — +20000
Cameron Davis — +20000
J.J. Henry — +20000
Max Homa — +20000
Scott Brown — +20000
Seth Reeves — +20000
Tyler Duncan — +20000
Cameron Tringale — +23800
Adam Svensson — +25000
Brady Schnell — +25000
Davis Love III — +25000
Hank Lebioda — +25000
Josh Teater — +25000
Kyle Jones — +25000
Alex Prugh — +25000
Brandon Hagy — +25000
Chase Wright — +25000
Freddie Jacobson — +25000
Jim Herman — +25000
K.J. Choi — +25000
Morgan Hoffmann — +25000
Anders Albertson — +25000
Brandon Harkins — +25000
Cody Gribble — +25000
Geroge McNeill — +25000
Jim Knous — +25000
Kenny Perry — +25000
Stephan Jaeger — +25000
Chip McDaniel — +30000
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez — +30000
D.A. Points — +30000
Kristoffer Ventura — +30000
John Senden — +30000
Smylie Kaufman — +30000
Rod Pampling — +50000
Rufus Brijalba — +50000 

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