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Betting Picks & Tips for the PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational

Earl looks to get on track this week for the PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational. Get his free golf picks for this event here.

This week, the pro’s of the PGA stay in Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Last week, was a off week for the Spooky Express as we failed to hit anyone in the top 10 but we did have some success with both of our head to head matchups. We struggled with our 5 golfers this week and really don’t have any excuses since we felt great about the plays coming into the Valspar Championships.

Sickness hit the Florida area early on Tuesday forcing several golfers to withdraw from the pro/am event on Wednesday. Justin Thomas was one of those golfers who pulled out and we had him as one of our top plays. Thomas played in the actual Valspar but missed the cut.

We did cash both our head to head matchups with Jason Dufner beat Kevin Na at -125, who missed the cut, and Jim Furyk beat Keegan Bradley at -115 by 4 strokes.

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FanDuel Adds DFS Golf

Before we get into the betting picks for this week, we have some big golf news. DFS giant, FanDuel has finally added PGA games to their offerings. Yes, you can play DFS golf at FanDuel for this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational. They have a quite different setup as well so be sure to check out their PGA DFS Learning Guide before you get signed up to play.

Bay Hill Overview and Course Details

Bay Hill Club and Lodge is located in Orlando, Florida. Arnold Palmer once classified this course as the “Best Course in Florida”. The course itself is 7419 yards and plays as a par 72 golf course. This course is a much easier course than the previous 3 tournaments the pro’s have played in. Matt Every shot a -19 2 years ago, so it can be a fairly low scoring tournament.

All of the Par 3’s are longer than 200 yards so you’re going to want golfers that are good with the long irons. There are also 4 Par 5’s at Bay Hill but they are certainly reachable and not overly long.

Arnold Palmer Invitational History

Last year, Jason Day beat out Kevin Chappell to win his first Arnold Palmer Invitational. Day was the leader throughout most of the tournament but lost the 2 stroke lead on the front 9 on Sunday. Day had to fight his way back and win it on his 18th hole up and down, with a little help from Chappell’s bogey.

Weather

Weather.com is forecasting an absolute beautiful week for golf at Bay Hill. All 4 days of the tournament have beautiful sunny skies, with little to no wind (10mph). There is no precipitation in the forecast and this tournament is looking like it will be a great week of golf.

Golfers

*My first golfer is Hideki Matsuyama at 15/1. Matsuyama is the perfect fit for Bay Hill and scores very high in our system. He is 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 1st in Par 5 Scoring Birdie or Better, 6th in Strokes Gained: Tee To Green, 10th Strokes Gained: Around the Green, 14th in Total Driving and 35th Strokes Gained: Approach The Green. Matsuyama is in decent form with a 25th place finish at the WGC Mexico Championship, a win at Phoenix Open and a 2nd place finish at the Tour of Champions. Matsuyama has played in 6 tournaments this year and only missed the cut in one of them. He is our top golfer this week!

*My second golfer is Henrik Stenson at 8/1. Stenson has played in 4 tournaments in 2017. He finished 7th last week at the Valspar, withdrew from the WGC Mexico Championship with a stomach bug, 2nd at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic and 8th at The Abu Dhabi HSBC Championships. Stenson plays very well on Bermuda Greens and his course history is tremendous! He has finished 3rd-2nd-5th-8th-15th-47th-52nd-22nd in his last 8 tournaments at Bay Hill.

*My third golfer is Francesco Molinari at 37/1. First off, Molinari started off at 55/1 and has plummeted like a bag of bricks falling from the rooftop! Molinari ranks very high in our system, is in great form and has good course history. Molinari has made the cut 4 out of 5 times this year. He finished 12th at CareerBuilder, 14th at Farmers Insurance Open and Honda Classic, and finished 20th at the WGC Mexico Championships. In the past 4 years, Molinari made the cut each year at Bay Hill with a 5th place finish in 2014, 9th place finish in 2016, 17th in 2015 and 34th in 2013.

*My fourth golfer is Justin Rose at 20/1. Rose is playing lights out golf right now! He has made the cut 5 out of 5 times and has hit top 4 in 3 tournaments. He came 2nd at The Sony Open, 4th at The Farmer’s Insurance Open and 4th at The Genesis Open. Rose has played in the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 9 of the past 11 years. In those 9 tries, he has made the cut 7 times and finished as high as 2nd in 2014. He has finished in the top 10 4 times at Bay Hill and it also should be noted that he ranks high in 4 out of our 6 categories, so he is definitely worth a look this week.

*My fifth golfer is Kyle Stanley at 175/1. This is a long shot but hear me out. Stanley doesn’t have the best course history and I’m aware of that but just listen. He has played at Bay Hill 3 times. He missed the cut twice and finished 12th in the other time. That being said, he ranks very high in our system stats. He is 1st in Total Driving and is a very accurate driver! He is 4th in Strokes Gained:Tee To Green, 9th Strokes Gained: Approach The Green, 20th in Par 5 Scoring and 25th Par 5 Scoring Birdies or Better.

Head To Head

  • Kevin Na over Ryan Moore 3 Units at +110
  • Kevin Kisner over Louis Oosthuizen 2 Units at +110
  • Francesco Molinari over Tyrrell Hatton 1 Unit at -128

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