Horse Racing Picks for Wood Memorial Day at Aqueduct – Saturday, April 6, 2019
Aqueduct – Saturday, April 6, 2019
Big day of racing today across the country.
Aqueduct has several Graded stakes races including the Grade 2 Wood Memorial that offers 100 qualifying points to the winner for the Kentucky Derby.
Santa Anita will have The Santa Anita Derby, Grade 1 race that offers 100 points to the winner and Keeneland has The Toyota Blue Grass, Grade 2 race that also offers 100 qualifying points.
Let’s not wait any longer………..
Race 6 – The Bay Shore – Grade 3
Not a great betting race with only 6 horses.
MIND CONTROL – Johnny V rides this beauty that will be rating and closing. On a big day like this, you never go against one of the best jockeys in the world on his home circuit.
MUCHO – Jose Ortiz/Bill Mott. Second race off the layoff for this horse having won coming off the shelf. The horse has never been worse than second in four career starts.
MUCH BETTER – Horse has been progressing nicely since running on dirt; 79, 81 and 92 last three out. Cuts back in distance after fading at 1 mile. Use in all wagers.
Race 7 – The Excelsior – Grade 3
NICODEMUS – Linda Rice-trained horse. The third race of the form cycle producing a solid 96 last out. Horse loves the slop. Pay attention to conditions.
MONONGAHELA – Jason Servis hits at 34% with horses second time out off rest. The horse has been second last three efforts. A major player in here.
DISCREET LOVER – Horse is the class of the field has run in nothing but Grade 1 and Grade 2 races last six races. Pair of bullet works coming in, 1 of 8 and 1 of 9. Most likely favorite.
LIFES A PARLAY – Johnny V/Pletcher combo. Never want to ignore these two, but this horses numbers are digressing; 94, 89, 86. He still managed to win the last race, but that was against optional claiming 50k horses, not Graded company you see here. The combo will be overbet. Now watch this bite me in the ass.
Race 8 – THE GAZELLE – Grade 2
ESPRESSO SHOT – Horse for the course. Two wins and place on this track. Horse’s numbers fit in with the others here and looks to be tough. Use in all wagers.
OFF TOPIC – Johnny V/Pletcher combo. This one steps up in class. He is the main closer in this field and is stretching out the extra 1/8 mile. I think he wins.
ALWAYS SHOPPING – Pletcher/Franco combo. This one is progressing nicely going 64, 68, 76 last three Beyer’s. Solid works leading up; 13/96 and 23/108.
POSITIVE SPIRIT – Bounced last race off a career-best 86 two back. A repeat effort of the 86 would win it, but I do not see it.
Race 9 – THE CARTER HANDICAP – Grade 1
Very interesting race with a heavy favorite. In a race full of speed, I am taking the closers in upsets.
VINO ROSSO – Pletcher/Johnny V combo. We won with this horse last month. He will be second off the layoff today and ready to run. He is closer. The horse is also 3 for 3 at Aqueduct.
SIR BALLANTINE – The heavy favorite in here ran 7 furlongs in 1:21 and change and faded in the end to get 4th. This horse ran it in 1:22 and won it. In a race where speed is prevalent, I take the closer at a bit price. The rider Luzzi can bring in the odds.
HONOR UP – This horse has won three in a row and 4 of 5. Loves the track going 4 wins and 2 seconds in 6 starts and has never been worse than second in four career starts at the Big A. Hard to ignore.
WORLD OF TROUBLE – Speed of the speed here. He is a monster with Beyer’s of 107, 109, 118, 103 last four races. Here is the thing; last two races were in the slop and the three prior were on the turf. He will be pressured this time on a dry dirt course. He faded in the same scenario before he was switched to grass.
Race 10 – THE WOOD MEMORIAL – Grade 2
There have been close to 30 Derby-qualifying races ran for the 2019 Kentucky Derby and there has not been a repeat winner yet. In addition, there has been only one horse to pay under $10.00 with more than a half dozen paying over $80.00 including two paying over $100.00. These races have been wide open.
TAX – Winner of the Withers on this track in February. His numbers are progressing nicely going 93, 96. The distance is no issue having run it twice. My concern is him being pressured this time and holding on.
TACITUS – Bill Mott-trained horse out of TAPIT. Mott is having a very good year. This was the winner of the Tampa Bay Derby a few weeks back. He has a nice rate and close style. Legit horse.
HAIKAL – Kiaran McLaughlin trained the horse that has won three in a row including the Gotham last out. Home track horse having only raced on this track. Has a nice late kick that will be beneficial as he stretches out to 1 1/8 for the first time. First time on two turns in my concern.
NOT THAT BRADY – Throw out his last race in the Gotham. This front-runner broke poorly and did not like getting sand in his face has always been on the front. He was rank and was never pushed to run. Prior to that, he had a solid 95 Beyer coming in second in the 1 1/8 Withers on this track. Rider sticks, he knows what he has. He will be out front and will need to break well. If he does, he could go wire to wire at a huge price. Worth a shot to use in exotics.
OUTSHINE – Again, Pletcher/Johnny V. Paid $625,000 for this Malibu Moon offspring. Came in second to TACITUS last out in the Tampa Bay Derby. This is the third race of the form cycle and he will be in better shape this time around. Legit shot to win.
Good luck and thanks for horseracing with Dietz!