Horse Racing Picks for Belmont Park by Dietz – Saturday, July 4, 2020

by Dietz | July 3, 2020 |

Well here we go with a big day at Belmont. It is not as big as two weeks ago, but the card is a solid one. I do see only two races with long shot potential though. This card again looks pretty formful especially with Chad Brown runners. He is prepping his horses for Saratoga and he places them very well. I can see him winning four races today, he has a horse in seven races and three of those are multiple entries.

Race 1 – Dirt

  • 4 – SHAYNA BAY – Franco/Donk. Second career start. For no other reason than this combo that I follow, I am betting this horse.  
  • 8 – CHARLETTE WEBLEY – Irad Ortiz/ Englehart. Blinkers added. I think this is a vulnerable favorite, but he is a good horse who just missed last out coming in second.
  • 12 – AGGRAVATION – Guiteriz/Henning. Second race of career after hitting the gate in debut. I expect a better effort today.

Race 2 – Turf

  • 1 – BALLAGH ROCKS/TRIBHUVAN – Coupled entry. Chad Brown has the 1A and he looks legit. This horse was third in first start off the layoff and then broke his reigns next race out at the start and never ran. This horse is ready to run and run hard. MOST LIKELY TO WIN
  • 2 – SPIRIT ANIMAL – Rosario/Rodriquez. Monster 93 Beyer off the layoff. Second start will have this one in prime form. Top 3 for sure.
  • 6 – SERVE THE KING – Irad Ortiz/Brown. Second race off the layoff. He took over in the stretch last out with ease. This race could be a Chad Brown exacta!!
  • 7 – NORTH DAKOTA – Castellano/McGaughey – I have this horse in my virtual stable. He can run all day and now stretches out and is 2/2 after the bar change. Nice long shot to mix in.

Race 3 – THE VICTORY RIDE – Grade 3 – Dirt

Not a great betting race.  Awful.

  • 1 – FRANKS ROCKETT
  • 2 – UP IN SMOKE
  • 4 – CENTER ISLE

Race 4 – Turf

  • 1 – MR. JAGGERS – Rosario/Mott.  Third race of the form cycle with a nice closing kick. Bullet work 1/93 coming in.
  • 3 – RED STORM RISEN – Johnny V/Motion. Second race off the layoff. He has trouble with distance, but is comptetive. Not sure what to do.
  • 4 – MALIBU EDGE – Franco/McGaughey. Third race off the layoff, but only second time on turf. He showed nice life late on turf. I think this one is a legit win shot at 3-1 or more.

Race 5 – Dirt

  • 1 – AMERICAN POWER – Cancel/Rice. Second race off the layoff. Horse was vanned off back in Nov. Came back with a vengance and a 90 Beyer. He will be better today. Nice price.
  • 6 – AMUNDSON – Jose Ortiz/Depaz. Since his return he is has two 95 Beyers; one win, one third. Jockey change to a stud. Look out.
  • 7 – FORTIN HILL – Irad Ortiz/ Brown. Third race of the form cycle. He can rate and close better than all in here.  Chad Brown is a monster on these days.  Must use in all wagers.

Race 6 – Turf

I think this race has the potential to produce an upset. Huge field with a mix of firsters and second time out.

  • 2 – L'INDESCRET – Franco/Tagg. Second time out after a poor first start. Tagg will make changes. Will be a nice ptice to mix in.
  • 8- YES TO MISCHIEF – Jose Ortiz/Casse First time starter. Paid $400,000 for this horse. Entered for a reason. 
  • 10 – PUBLICATION – Castellano/Brown. Second career start and a monster closing kick.  I have a feeling this one wins it all!!  WINNER!
  • 11 – ZACCAPA – Cox. Geroux. Shocked Castellano is not on this horse, but this combo is good.  Use in all wagers.

Race 7 – TURF

  • 2 – POINT HIM OUT – Lezcano/Stidman. This trainer has been red hot. Third career start and just missed last out. This horse will be competitive.
  • 4 – DANTE'S FIRE – Irad Ortiz// Maker. Horse broke maiden two back, faced winners last out and was flying late for forth. I expect a better effort and he will be rolling late at a nice price.
  • 5 – JO'S BOLD CAT – Franco/Rubley. Second race off the layoff. Horse will need a clean trip, but if he gets on he will be rolling late at a nice price. Exotics.

Race 8 – THE POKER – Grade 3 – Turf

  • 2 – VALID POINT – Castellano/Brown. Two entries for Chad Brown here. First off the layoff after being put on the shelf. He ran in Grade 1 race winning it. He may need a race, but he is class all day long.
  • 4 – SEISMIC WAVE – Rosario/Mott. Rosario closes on turf like no other. This horse is a monster closer and second off the layoff will have this one prime. Use in all wagers. (LONG SHOT OF DAY  8-1)
  • 9 – VALUE PROPOSITION – Irad Ortiz/Brown. Second off the layoff winning return easy. This one may roll for fun, but stepping way up in class keeps  me cautious.

Race 9 – THE METROPOLITAN HANDICAP- Grade 1 – Dirt

This is the best race of the day. Great horses and should be an amazing race to watch.

  • 1 – NETWORK EFFECT – Irad Ortiz/Chad Brown.  Horse has been first or second last three races. Stepping up in class against these here. Exotics.
  • 2 –  VEKOMA – Castellano/Weaver.  This horse is on a roll. Winner of two in a row with ease. Third race of the form cycle and if this one improves off the 110 Beyer he wins for fun. Hope to get 2-1.
  • 3 – McKINZIE – Smith/Baffert. This is the reason Smith is here. This horse is a beast. Was not ready two back when first off the layoff, but blew the doors off the field last out under a hand ride. Major player.
  • 9 – VALUE PROPOSITION – Irad Ortiz/Brown. Second race off the layoff with nice 100 Beyer in return, Stepping way up in class here. Will be running late, but will it be enough.

Race 10 – THE MANHATTAN HANDICAP – Grade 1 – Turf

Call this the CHAD BROWN HANDICAP

  • 1 – INSTILLED REGARD – Irad Ortiz/Brown.  Rider change made all the difference last race and now he sticks. Deep closer who gets the rail. Could win.
  • 2 – ROCKEMPEROR – Johnny V/ Brown. Horse came in second last race with an awful trip. I clean trip will help this time. He will be way back and come closing late. Needs to be timed perfectly.
  • 5 – DEVAMANI – Rosario/Brown. Another deep closer coming in third race of the form cycle. Issue is, horse does not like to win. Exotics only.

Race 11 – THE SUBURBAN – Grade 2 – Dirt

  • 1 – TACITUS – Johnny V/Mott.  This was my Kentucky Derby horse year and many other races. This horse is stud, but just cant win. Exotics only.
  • 4 – Mr. BLUFF – Alvarado/Kimmel.  Speed of the speed here, but I do not think he wins here.Stepping way up in class. I think he a vulnerable favorite.
  • 6 – SIR WINSTON – Rosario/Casse. Third race of the form cycle and will be running late. Should have the speed set up to come late and has faced tougher. Top 3
  • 8 – MORETTI – Castellano/Pletcher. This horse has won two in a row. Peaking at the right time and this is Pletcher. Use in all wagers.

EARLY PICK 4 – Races 2 -5

  • Race 2 – 1 
  • Race 3 – 1 
  • Race 4 – ALL
  • Race 5 – 1,6,7

LATE PICK 4  – Races  8-11

  • Race 8 – 2, 4, 5, 9
  • Race 9 – 2,3
  • Race 10 – 1,2,3,5
  • Race 11 – 4, 6, 7, 8
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