2019 Belmont Stakes Handicapping Breakdown and Betting Picks
Race 11 – THE BELMONT STAKES – Grade 1
From my early review to today, the race has added WAR STORY.
1 – JOEVIA – The absolute speed in the race. My thoughts have not changed. I do not think this horse gets the distance and will not be in the money. NOT USING
2- EVERFAST – Hard closing horse that got second in the Preakness and got second in the Holy Bull. Horse produced the best Beyer yet in the Preakness jumping 22 points to a 96 Beyer. I am going against him here. I think he bounces. NOT USING.
3- MASTER FENCER – Japanese horse that people are talking about because of his closing pace in Derby. It will be interesting to see what he does on a dry track. I heard his workouts were not good and got blown away by another horse in this field. Still, need to use in exotics.
4- TAX – Irad rides for Danny Gargan who was well known saying TAX did not like the slop in the Derby. He is well rested and has a nice rate and closing style. He hung with TACITUS for a moment in deep stretch in the Wood Memorial but lost by 2 ½ lengths in the end with TACITUS pulling away. EXOTICS.
5 – BOURBON WAR – Mike Smith gets the mount here. Not a bad pick up for Henning who has this horseback after a poor Preakness effort. Remember, he was scratched late, after the Derby draws with an injury and he was on my radar. He is bred out of TAPIT who owns this race with offspring and he wants to go long. Mike Smith has 3 Belmont wins. I would use in exotics.
6- SPINOFF – Todd Pletcher/Castellano combo. The horse was progressing nicely until the Derby and the sloppy track. He was done halfway through the Derby and was never a factor. On a dry track, he faded at 1-⅛ miles, so the distance concerns me. Not really sure, but leaning to not using.
7 – SIR WINSTON – Rosario/Casse combo. This horse is deep closer who prepped for this race in the Peter Pan Stakes. He was wide in that race and still came closing late. The concern is, he jumped 35 points that race to hit a career-best 100 Beyer. Everything says bounce according to numbers. Not going to use.
8 – INTREPID HEART – Johnny V/Pletcher combo. Very lightly raced horse who used the Peter Pan as a prep for this race. He is bred out of TAPIT and that is a huge factor in this race. I think this horse will change tactics and Johnny V will rate and close. I think this horse can run all day. Using in exotics.
9 – WAR OF WILL – The only horse to run in all three Triple Crown races. Winner of the Preakness and we all know what happened in the Derby. He had two perfect trips in the Derby and Preakness riding the rail. I watched the Preakness again as well as the Risen Star and this horse can stretch out his legs in deep stretch. I was not going to use him in my early write-up, but I changed my mind. The way he lengthened his stride is just the way MAXIMUM SECURITY did. He has a legit win shot in this race. Use in all wagers.
10- TACITUS – Jose Ortiz rides for Mott. This horse is bred for this race is out of TAPIT and CLOSE HATCHES. He is a monster closer with a big frame. He will be coming late and should have no issues getting the distance. He is well rested and was the winner of three in a row before the Derby. His workouts have been excellent, 1 of 16, 3 of 11, 9 of 33. I expect him to have a big race and be first or second. Major win threat.
The history of the Belmont Stakes favors those who have taken the Preakness off and rested. It also has a good history for those who are sired by TAPIT, with three winners in 5 years; the other two winners were Triple Crown winners. How can you not consider those stats?
WPS – TACITUS
TRIPLE – TACITUS, WAR OF WILL, INTREPID HEART over TACITUS, WAR OF WILL, INTREPID HEART, MASTER FENCER, and BOURBON WAR over MASTER FENCER, BOURBON WAR, INTREPID HEART, and TAX.
EXACTA – TACITUS with WAR OF WILL
Good luck and thanks for horse racing with Dietz!