Horse Racing Picks including Breeders’ Cup by Dietz -Saturday, Nov. 2, 2019

by Dietz | November 2, 2019 |

Breeders’ Cup Saturday

If you are, a first time follower please read all entries. I do not pick horses in order of finish. I pick horses that I feel will be in the money. You make your own wagers. If I feel a horse can win the race, I will say that in the write-up.   Good luck.

Race 1 – THE SENATOR KEN MADDY – Grade 3

  • 2 – DON’T SELL – O’Neill/Gutierrez.  Horse can rate and close and loves the Santa Anita turf having won three of four and placing second in the other race.
  • 4 – JUST GRAZED ME – D’Amato/Franco. Winner of two in a row and beat DON’T’ SELL last out. Had a career best 92 Beyer in last. Will be difficult to repeat that effort.
  • 5 – APACHE PRINCESS – Desormeaux/Desormeaux.  Keith has his brother Kent riding this horse. This one no doubt possesses the speed and stamina to perform here, but this will come down to a clean trip. If he gets room to run in the stretch he can win, but this is a large field full of speed and he may be trapped.  Risk using in win, more exotics.
  • 8 – GIRL KNOWS BEST – Kenneally/Jose Ortiz. Third race of the form cycle for this horse that is flat out speed. He will play catch me if you can from the start. He will be in prime form and well rested, the distance is a concern. More exotics.

Race 2 – THE DAMASCUS

Not a great betting race with only five horses.

  • 3 – ROADSTER – Baffert/Irad Ortiz. Baffert adds blinkers to this beauty where he hits at 38%. Major threat.
  • 4 – FLAGSTAFF – Sadler/Espinoza. Major drop in class from Grade 1. Came in third to OMAHA BEACH who is the favorite in the DIRT MILE.  4/27 work coming in.
  • 5 – COMICAL GHOST – Baffert/Talamo. Winner of both career starts. Will be third race of the form cycle, but is stepping way up in class. Solid works coming in, 4/36 and 2/29.  Racing for third really.

Race 3 – THE QATAR TWILIGHT DERBY – GRADE 2

  • 3 – NOLDE – Shirreffs/Espinoza. Winner of the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby last out at this distance. Horse just keeps improving going from Beyer’s of 63, 78, 84 and 89. This is what you want to see. Espinoza is one of the best turf riders at Santa Anita. Major threat. Use in all wagers.
  • 5 – SUCCEEDANDSURPASS – Baltas/Johnny V. Stepped up last race off the maiden win to get second in an allowance race. Produced a solid 90 Beyer. He has the closing kick to make front-runners worry. Stepping up in class, but if a speed duel happens this one should get a piece of the exotics.
  • 8 – NEPTUNE’S STORM – Baltas/Santana Jr.  Horse for the course angle here; six starts with four wins and third and is three for three in the money at distance. He can rate and close. Exotics.

Note: I do not think KINGLY gets the distance and GRAY MAGICIAN is first time turf.

Race 4 – THE BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE SPRINT – GRADE 1

  • 1 – COVFEFE – Cox/Rosario. CAUTION with this horse. He tied a career best with a 107 Beyer last out. Last time he ran that Beyer he bounced next race. This may bite me in the ass, but deep exotics only.
  • 4 – COME DANCING – Martin/Castellano. Horse can rate and closes very well. Castellano is lethal at this maneuver.  Interesting that he hops off SPICED PERFECTION in here to ride this horse. Distance is perfect for this horse. Use in all wagers.
  • 6 – BELLAFINA – Callaghan/Prat. Horses best Beyer’s are on this track. Four for four in the win department here and two of three at distance.  She will be a fair price. I would use in all wagers.
  • 8 – DAWN THE DESTROYER – McLaughlin/Gaffalione. Horse’s best distance, is 7 of 9 in money. Battle tested having raced in Graded competition last six races. Nice 9/62 workout coming in. Still, deep exotics for me.

Race 5 – THE BREEDERS CUP TIRF SPRINT – Grade 1

  • 2 – PURE SENSATION – Clement/Lopez. Here we go again with Paco Lopez. I said it yesterday; he has one gear, which is GO!  Clement has this horse in prime form with Beyer’s of 101, 101 and 102. No doubt what the strategy is here, go out front and play “catch me if you can”.  He will have to hold on in the end.
  • 4 – SHEKKY SHEBAZ – Servis/Irad Ortiz. Since the barn change two back this horse has been lights out. Steps up in class, but cuts back in distance. Stamina will not be an issue for this horse. He will go out front and last. Major win threat at a nice price in my eyes.
  • 10 – EDDIE HASKELL – Glatt/Rosario. This horse is a sprint specialist. Has never been out of the money at this distance, 14/14 with nine wins. Solid work coming in 3/72.  Use in all wagers.

Race 6 – THE BIG ASS FANS BREEDERS’ CUP DIRT MILE – GRADE 1

  • 2 – IMPROBABLE – Baffert/Bejarano. This horse has nothing but bullet works leading up to this race; 1/42, 1/5 and 1/56.  Facing tough competition here. I do not think he wins, but exotics are legit.
  • 5 – OMAHA BEACH – Mandella/Smith.  This will be the crowd favorite. If it were not for throat surgery this horse would been the Derby Favorite.  Built like a tank this horse is back to full strength and should be a major threat to win this race. 
  • 7 – COAL FRONT – Pletcher/Castellano. Always a hard knocking horse. This one rarely gives a bad effort. Throw away the race three back as it was his return trip from Dubai. Next two races were a first and third.
  • 9 – DIAMOND OPS – Biancone/Leparoux. Interesting here. Horse has run sprints his entire career, trainer puts him in a 1 mile turf race where he almost wins, losing the lead in final strides.  Now he goes back to dirt and stays at mile. Turf to dirt angle. Use in exotics at a price.

Race 7 – THE MAKER’S MARK BREEDERS’ CUP FILLY AND MARE TURF- GRADE 1

  • 2 – SISTERCHARLIE – Brown/Johnny V. What is there to say about this horse? We have loaded up on this horse since he came off the shelf in July. Winner of six in a row, three this year, all Grade 1 competition. If I had to worry about anything, it would be she has never run at Santa Anita.  Major win threat, but that is obvious. She won this race last year by a neck.
  • 10 – MRS. SIPPY – Motion/Rosario.  Runner up to SISTERCHARLIE last out. She was flying late, but at the same time SISTERCHARLIE was running easy to a win. SISTERCHARLIE will be full out to guarantee the win. Still, this horse must be used in exotics.
  • 12 – FANNY LOGAN – Gosden/Dettori.   European horse that is a winner of three in a row. She will go out front and try to steal this race wire to wire. Five for five at the distance. Use in exotics.

Race 8 – THE BREEDERS’ CUP SPRINT – GRADE 1

  • 1 – CATALINA CRUISER – Sadler/Rosario. This horse was in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last year and ran a dud. Something went wrong and was put on the shelf until June of 2019. Since the return, it has Beyer’s of 103, 100 and 104 with three wins.  This one will want revenge and I think will be a major threat.
  • 4 – MITOLE – Asmussen/Santana Jr.  Winner of 8 of 9 races. Beyer’s are off the charts hitting 105, 108 last two.  Has never run at Santa Anita, but class is class. This horse is a beast. Will be first or second.
  • 6 – SHANCELOT – Navarro/Jose Ortiz.  We won with this horse at Saratoga when it won by 12 lengths, then we went against it on Travers Day to hit the PICK 3 and with a huge exacta when this finished third. Came in second to OMAHA BEACH last out on this very track. Has been firing bullets in morning, 1/72 and 1/60. I do not think this horse is a match for MITOLE.  Use in exotics.
  • 9 – IMPERIAL HINT – Carvaja/Castellano. Winner of two in a row in Grade 1 competition. Actually, beat MITOLE two back at Saratoga. Horse looks to be in prime form and getting stronger. Strong rider in Castellano helps. Exotics.
  • I would box all four of the above horses in triples and supers.

Race 9 – THE TVG BREEDERS’ CUP MILE – GRADE 1

This is one of the toughest races on the card today.

  • 6 – GOT STORMY – Casse/Gaffalione. I would love to see this jockey win this race. Horse is in excellent form right now, bullet work of 2/103 coming into the race. He can rate and close which will help in this large field of fourteen horses. Asking it to win is a tough task. Exotics.
  • 9 – CIRCUS MAXIMUS – O’Brien/Moore. Best combo on turf in Europe comes overseas. Jockey has ridden this horse to two wins and place last four on board.  European horses do very well in this race. Win threat. Use in all wagers.
  • 11 – UNI – Brown/Rosario.  Deep closing horse. We have been wagering on this horse since he was off the shelf in June. Beyer’s are going up nicely, 98, 103 and 105. A good trip will be needed in a full field. Rosario is one of the best at closing on the turf. Major win threat.
  • 14 – BOWIES HERO – D’Amato/Prat. Another deep closer coming off a Grade 1 win at Keeneland.  Prat rides and he is very good on the Santa Anita turf. Will have to have his best career race to win, but this one can get a piece of the pie in exotics at a nice price.

Race 10 – THE LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP DISTAFF – GRADE 1

  • 1 – PARADISE WOODS – Sherriffs/Cedillo. Mike Smith hops off this horse to ride MIDNIGHT BISOU. Cedillo rode this horse to victory last race on this track in the Grade 2 Zenyatta Stakes.  Horse is full of stamina; the 1 1/8 distance will be no problem for her. Use in all wagers.
  • 4 – MIDNIGHT BISOU – Asmussen/Smith.  Absolute monster of a horse here. Loves the Santa Anita track and loves the distance.  Winner of seven in a row. Mike Smith on board only helps.
  • If there is a lock of the day, to me, it is this horse, more so than SISTERCHARLIE.
  • 11 – BLUE PRIZE – Correas/Bravo. Winner of two in a row including the Grade 1 Spinster at Keeneland.  Horse is 11 of 12 in money at distance. She will be closing late. The ride will be key. This horse cannot get too far back before she makes her run. MIDNIGHT BISOU will be making her run at about the same time, if this horse is too far back it has not shot.  Ride will key. Exotics.

RACE 11 – THE BREEDERS’ CUP TURF – GRADE 1

  • 5 – ANTHONY VAN DYCK – O’Brien/Moore.  Another O’Brien entry on the turf. This horse if battle tested having raced in Grade 1 level last six races. Horse will like the firm turf course, but it is up against it in here with others. Deep exotics.
  • 9 – BRICKS AND MORTAR – Brown/Irad Ortiz. Chad Brown beauty that is looking for horse of the year honors. Winner of six in a row. Stretches out to the 1 ½-mile distance that I think will only help this horse. Deep closer and should win this race.
  • 10 – OLD PERSIAN – Appleby/Moore. Winner of the Grade 1 race at Woodbine last out. Horse is acclimated to the United States and travel is no issue. He likes to rate up front and kick into gear in stretch.  Distance in no problem winning five of six.  Exotics.
  • 11 – ARKLOW – Cox/Castellano. Castellano on a long turf race will be lethal. Horse is four of six in the money at distance with two wins.  Here is my issue and probably why he is 12-1 morning line; this horse likes to lay back and make a late run. He will have to stay closer up front which may take some stamina out of him if the pace is fast.  First ½-mile will need to be in .50 plus for this one to have a chance.  Deep exotics.

RACE 12 – THE LONGINES BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC – GRADE 1

This is a very even race. I do not see the favorite being 2-1. Three to one is most likely and you may get two or even three horses at that price. That will make exacta wagering a good profit.

  • 8 – McKENZIE – Baffert/Rosario. On paper, this looks to be the class of the field, but I am not falling for that. Lost last race to MONGOLIAN GROOM and two back lost to MITOLE. This will be a tough horse to beat, but he can be beat. Exotics.
  • 9 – MONGOLIAN GROOM – Ganbat/Cedillo. Beat McKENZIE last out in a gutsy race. Horse is improving with every race and that is scary considering he ran 110 Beyer last out. Two races back he bumped badly at the break went 4 wide and came in 5th. This horse just keeps coming and coming.  Has a habit of being wide, but won last race with a rail trip. Breaking from the nine whole this jockey will have his work cut out to get him inside. This horse goes wide again and it will be tough to win.  Exotics.
  • 10 – VINO ROSSO – Pletcher/Irad Ortiz. This horse is rounding into great shape. Beyer’s are 100+ last three. Won his last race but was DQ’d to second for rubbing in deep stretch with CODE OF HONOR. This horse is getting better and better with each race. Major win threat. Has a win over this course back in May. Interesting.
  • 11 – CODE OF HONOR – McGaughey/Johnny V. Travers winner and Jockey Gold Cup winner (won with a DQ). Very talented horse who can win this race. My knock here is lack of racetrack experience. It may not sound like much, but having a race over the surface helps. No doubt, this horse is in top three.

MOST LIKELY TO WIN

Race 6 – OMAHA BEACH

(Horse got all it needed last race winning in deep stretch)

LONG SHOT OF THE DAY

Race 5 – SHEKKY SHEBAZ (12-1 morning line)

And

Race 9 – BOWIES HERO – (12-1 morning line)

PICK 3

  • Races 2-4
  • Race 2 – 3, 4
  • Race 3 – 3, 5, 8
  • Race 4 – 4, 6, 8, 9

PICK 4

The late PICK 4 will have a very good chance of chalk winning two races. Only way to make money is to go against them, which of course is a big risk.

  • Races 9-12
  • Race 9 – 9, 11, 14
  • Race 10 – 4, 11
  • Race 11 – 5, 9, 10, 11
  • Race 12 – 8, 9, 10, 11

PICK 5

  • Races 8-12
  • Race 8 – 1, 4, 6, 9
  • Race 9 – 9, 11
  • Race 10 – 4, 11
  • Race 11 – 5, 9, 10, 11
  • Race 12 – 8, 9, 10, 11

Good luck and thanks for horse racing with Dietz!!

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